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#164251 - 01/21/09 08:58 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: scafool]
Desperado Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/01/08
Posts: 1530
Loc: DFW, Texas
I remember during my time in the Oklahoma Army National Guard after active duty time....

I was just a fly on the wall guarding a high level meeting of the state and federal big wigs discussing this very subject.

I seem to remember the general (if unofficial) consensus at the beginning of the meeting was "Don't tell anyone the nukes are on the way". I guess the thinking was there was no way to get everyone out, so let them end "peacefully".

By the end of the meeting, I think it had become official policy. Once the powers that were saw the magnitude of the issue, they knew it would take days not hours.

Now for a hurricane or something you can see coming in advance, I think the evacuations this year on the Gulf Coast are a good example. (Admittedly smaller though.)
_________________________
I do the things that I must, and really regret, are unfortunately necessary.

RIP OBG

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#164258 - 01/21/09 09:41 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Desperado]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
If you could keep them all moving, it would be more successful than the reality:

Vehicle breakdowns
Vehicles running out of gas
Road rage
Sheer panic
Poor driving habits
Drivers distracted by cell phone and laptop use
Drivers distracted by spilling coffee
Drivers trying to swat kids in back seat
Drivers weaving through traffic to get further ahead
Drivers changing their mind, trying to go in opposite direction
And the ever-present road repairs and changes, with the barriers, cones, barrels, signs and equipment.

Considering what a city looks like every morning and evening, I wouldn't expect much.

Sue

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#164260 - 01/21/09 09:45 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Desperado]
scafool Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 12/18/08
Posts: 1534
Loc: Muskoka
Yes, I have been trying to look at at the plans and reports on most of the places mentioned.
It is just a bit hard to find reports on evacuations that have already been done.
There are plenty of evacuation plans though
I kind of like South Galveston's Zip Code Zoning system.

An odd thought about military ideas on civilians fleeing a disaster area?
Maybe part of it is the Army would rather not have the roads clogged with fleeing refugees or have to deal with looking after them, it likely plays hell with the logistics of troop movements.
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May set off to explore without any sense of direction or how to return.

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#164262 - 01/21/09 09:47 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Desperado]
yelp Offline
Member

Registered: 06/04/08
Posts: 172
Loc: Colorado
scafool: Ah! I stand corrected. Thanks for the correction and the research time you put in.

"During the mid-1990s, emergency managers tried to forge a "National Emergency Plan for the Vesuvius Region," based on what scientists now know about the volcano. The proposal was widely mocked. It involved the complete evacuation of the area's population: A total of 81 ships, 4,000 buses and 40 trains were to help all 586,417 inhabitants of the red zone make their escape. The refugees would then be resettled all over Italy on the basis of a complex formula.

But what about all those who don't want to leave their homes? What if roads are torn open, bridges shattered and rail tracks bent out of shape even before the eruption itself occurs? And is a warning period of one week even realistic? Who's responsible if everyone is really evacuated and the volcano doesn't behave in the way predicted by the scientists?"

Wonder what plans emergency managers have cooked up since then?
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(posting this as someone that has unintentionally done a bunch of stupid stuff in the past and will again...)

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#164270 - 01/21/09 10:26 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale e [Re: scafool]
Desperado Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/01/08
Posts: 1530
Loc: DFW, Texas
Having seen the plans at the time, I decided to proceed to the I-40 & I-35 interchange as quickly as possible. Upon arrival, I was going to crack open my last beer and wait for the bright flash from directly above.
_________________________
I do the things that I must, and really regret, are unfortunately necessary.

RIP OBG

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#164271 - 01/21/09 10:36 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Susan]
scafool Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 12/18/08
Posts: 1534
Loc: Muskoka
Susan, I agree totally.
The only thing you are missing are the guys in the monster trucks who decide to just run over everybody else when the traffic slows down.
As far as the government moving masses of people they have to get the trucks and buses lined up and fight them through the traffic too.
_________________________
May set off to explore without any sense of direction or how to return.

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#164274 - 01/21/09 10:42 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Desperado]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Quote:
Has there ever been a successful large scale evac?



The more time you have before an event, the greater the number of lives that can be saved assuming of course the authorities are competent and the evacuation carried out in an ordered fashion. Clear, concise and truthful information has to passed to the intended evacuees, no matter how dire that information is as even minutes or seconds warning can contribute to saving some lives that would otherwise be lost.

Of course knowing how to naturally form an orderly queue is more of a cultural issue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo#Evacuation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Haicheng_earthquake





Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (01/21/09 10:47 PM)

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#164279 - 01/21/09 11:06 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
scafool Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 12/18/08
Posts: 1534
Loc: Muskoka
Pinatubo seems like an interesting one.
I am starting to get a picture about large scale evacuations.

I noticed like you said.

In this one the early warnings with accurate information made a big difference in the result.
Having a place ready to move them to helped a lot too.

In the case of the Mount Vesuvius planning they gave up on planning where to put the people they were going to move.
_________________________
May set off to explore without any sense of direction or how to return.

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#164281 - 01/21/09 11:23 PM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale evac? [Re: Desperado]
LED Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/05
Posts: 1474
Originally Posted By: Desperado
I seem to remember the general (if unofficial) consensus at the beginning of the meeting was "Don't tell anyone the nukes are on the way". I guess the thinking was there was no way to get everyone out, so let them end "peacefully".



I guess if you heard the sirens (wavering attack signal) you only had about 30 minutes anyway, right? Here's some recordings of a few different cold war sirens. There's an old Crysler air raid model (with the V-8 engine removed) near where I live. I can only imagine how loud that sucker must've been. Eerie and fascinating at the same time.


http://www.civildefensemuseum.com/sirens.html



Edited by LED (01/21/09 11:32 PM)

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#164290 - 01/22/09 12:09 AM Re: Has there ever been a successful large scale e [Re: LED]
Desperado Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/01/08
Posts: 1530
Loc: DFW, Texas
That old Chrysler siren is the ring tone on my phone for our reverse 911 system.

Those were also the sirens used for tornado warnings in Oklahoma when I was growing up. I still get a cold chill when I hear one tested. I hate Tornados!

PS: I live within 30 miles of all of the places he mentions on his website.


Edited by Desperado (01/22/09 12:19 AM)
_________________________
I do the things that I must, and really regret, are unfortunately necessary.

RIP OBG

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