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#162789 - 01/13/09 02:47 AM How long do you figure a long time is?
scafool Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 12/18/08
Posts: 1534
Loc: Muskoka
When you are preparing for a natural disaster or large scale emergency how long do you plan on being stuck before help arrives or things get back to normal?

Is it a few days, a few weeks, a few months,a few centuries or is it longer than that?
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#162805 - 01/13/09 03:32 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: ]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I would concur with the general 2 to 2 1/2 week timeline. Beyond that, if things are still bad enough that you haven't been able to get relief one way or another, then it is more than just a temporary situation, and time to implement long term (year or more) life changing survival plans.

Really, like dressing for variably cold climates, it is best to go in layers. Acute, short term survival issues are going to differ greatly in how you respond vs. chronic, long term survival needs. I think preparing to respond at a range of conditions is most appropriate, long term being anything that is going to require self sufficiency for more than 3 weeks. By then you should be converting your MO from "what else is in the bag?" to "what's in the pantry?"
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The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
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#162817 - 01/13/09 03:52 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: benjammin]
Blast Offline
INTERCEPTOR
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 07/15/02
Posts: 3581
Loc: TX
A third vote for 2-3 weeks. Hurricane Ike knocked the power out in areas of Houston for that long. Out-of-state repair crews, rescue workers, and aid stations were on the scene in about two days. Basically most of the US would need to be taken out to prevent such massive aid from rolling to the rescue.

-Blast
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#162820 - 01/13/09 04:10 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Blast]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
I think the 2-3 week window sounds like a decent idea, but I'd up it to a month with food and water, as much as I could. I like the idea of a little cushion. Moreover, if things are so bad that it looks like it will take more than 3 weeks, the extra gives you some ability and more time to move.

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#162822 - 01/13/09 04:45 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Dan_McI]
Todd W Offline
Product Tester
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 1928
Loc: Mountains of CA
I would say 2-3 weeks for 'help' of some sort, and potentially hard core "surviving".

But potentially (Katrina anyone??) months of repairing, and living way different than currently... this may be considered "surviving" too, and totally different yet the same wink.

-Todd
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Self Sufficient Home - Our journey to self sufficiency.

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#162826 - 01/13/09 05:29 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Todd W]
Tjin Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/08/02
Posts: 1776
"help arrives" and "back to normal" are complety diffrent things. One of the mayor dangers in mine country is flooding. Help should be arriving in days, but back to normal. Well if the flooding is caused by the rivers; more than a year, before everything is back "normal" again. If the flooding is by the sea, it will take less time, but you will have a lot less time to evacuate. (Days versus hours)
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#162828 - 01/13/09 05:51 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: Tjin]
scafool Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 12/18/08
Posts: 1534
Loc: Muskoka
Originally Posted By: PC2K
"help arrives" and "back to normal" are complety diffrent things. One of the mayor dangers in mine country is flooding. Help should be arriving in days, but back to normal. Well if the flooding is caused by the rivers; more than a year, before everything is back "normal" again. If the flooding is by the sea, it will take less time, but you will have a lot less time to evacuate. (Days versus hours)


OK, I have to ask.
Why would the damages from the rivers flooding take less time to fix than if the flooding is by the sea?

(edit: And yes, back to normal is much different than help arriving)


Edited by scafool (01/13/09 05:55 AM)
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May set off to explore without any sense of direction or how to return.

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#162835 - 01/13/09 07:43 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: scafool]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
I expect "help" to arrive in 3 to 5 days. Then the "scariest phrase in the world" is heard, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you".

I expect to see "normal" within 3 to 5 months, or up to 5 years, depending on the nature and severity of the occurrance.

The biggest error, as I see it, is to depend on "the gummint gonna take care of me". I trust what I see, know what I can do, am ready to assist others, but I don't care to have to depend on anyone or any other entity

My two limitations are running water and a certain drug called Baclofen, in it's liquid form, along with the means to administer and the computor required to program the pump. I keep a reserve of Baclofen (pill form) on hand to mitigate any lapses of service. I do have a Plan C but that is not a plan that I want to dwell on.
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#162836 - 01/13/09 07:53 AM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: benjammin]
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2828
Loc: La-USA
Originally Posted By: benjammin
Really, like dressing for variably cold climates, it is best to go in layers. Acute, short term survival issues are going to differ greatly in how you respond vs. chronic, long term survival needs. I think preparing to respond at a range of conditions is most appropriate, long term being anything that is going to require self sufficiency for more than 3 weeks. By then you should be converting your MO from "what else is in the bag?" to "what's in the pantry?"


This brings up another set of thoughts that I've been mulling over for awhile. It also deserves a thread of it's own, which I'll start.
_________________________
QMC, USCG (Ret)
The best luck is what you make yourself!

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#162844 - 01/13/09 12:27 PM Re: How long do you figure a long time is? [Re: wildman800]
gonewiththewind Offline
Veteran

Registered: 10/14/08
Posts: 1517
I agree that if it goes beyond 2-3 weeks, adjust to long term plans. Be prepared for 2-3 weeks on your own with no resupply (water purification, food, meds).

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