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#151398 - 10/09/08 02:21 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: MartinFocazio]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
I'm still waiting to hear that China has suddenly imploded, their demand for our goods is dropping like a stone, their factories that make all of our stuff cheaply are closing up in droves, they're selling their dollar reserves, and will stop buying our new debt from now on. Now that would be earth-shaking.

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#151399 - 10/09/08 02:27 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Arney]
Grouch Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/02/08
Posts: 395
Loc: Ohio
Yep, China can take us down without firing a shot.

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#151404 - 10/09/08 03:24 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Arney]
clarktx Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/01/08
Posts: 250
Loc: Houston, Texas
Originally Posted By: Arney
I'm still waiting to hear that China has suddenly imploded, their demand for our goods is dropping like a stone, their factories that make all of our stuff cheaply are closing up in droves, they're selling their dollar reserves, and will stop buying our new debt from now on. Now that would be earth-shaking.


Actually, I was talking to my assistant in Ningbo last night, and China is sufferring a similar panic to what we are seeing here. She said real estate is losing value, stock market is bad, its the same story as here just refried a bit.

The Chinese are starting to settle in eastern Russia, too. I guess they'll claim squatters rights and nationalize it. Russia's a bit too chaotic to start a war with China.
_________________________
You can't teach experience.

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#151443 - 10/09/08 06:46 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: clarktx]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
Ups and downs of the Stock Market:

Aug 24, 1921 = 64
Sept 3, 1929 = 381
Nov 11, 1929 = 228 (-40%)

From August 1982 to August 1987, Dow Jones went from 776 to 2722.
Oct. 14 to 19, 1987 = Dow Jones dropped 760 (31%)

Dow Jones history (edited)
Jan 2, 1900 68
Jan 2, 1910 81
Jan 2, 1920 109
Jan 2, 1930 244
Jul 8, 1932 41
Jan 2, 1940 151
Jan 2, 1951 240
(none shown for 1950)
Jan 2, 1960 616
Jan 2, 1970 809
Jan 2, 1980 825
Jan 8, 1987 2,002
Oct 19, 1987 1,738
Jan 2, 1990 2,810
Jan 14, 2000 11,723

Jan 2, 2001 10,646
Jan 2, 2002 10,073
Jan 2, 2003 8,607
Jan 2, 2004 10,410
Apr 12, 2005 10,508
Jan 6, 2006 10,959
Jan 5, 2007 12,398
Jan 4, 2008 12,800
[http://www.nyse.tv/dow-jones-industrial-average-history-djia.htm]

Today (Oct 9) 9,144

The stock market is really just an indicator of faith.

What goes up, comes down.

This is an election year. 2003 wasn't. Stocks dropped about 15%. Did anyone notice? Was it the topic of every discussion in America?

A good friend of mine said "Follow the money. Always follow the money."

Who is profiting from this situation right now?

Sue

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#151465 - 10/09/08 08:10 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Susan]
Frank2135 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 04/26/07
Posts: 266
Loc: Ohio, USA
I'm not sure anyone is profiting right now in any big way. The problem is that huge profits have been pulled out of the mortgage lending industry over the last 7 years or so which were not based on real value. These commissions and fees going to the lending industry, and they were in the billions, were "funded" by inflated property appraisals and overly optimistic forecasts of the borrowers' ability to pay or refinance. Add in a sophisticated scam that dumped lousy mortgages into the bond market (!) with more commissions changing hands at every stage, and you soon realize that this cash cow has been milked dry.


Edited by Frank2135 (10/09/08 08:10 PM)
Edit Reason: typo
_________________________
All we can do is all we can do.

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#151485 - 10/09/08 10:54 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Frank2135]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
All those outfits knew exactly what they were doing. And don't tell me some of them were making large amounts of money hand over fist. Sure, a lot of it got lost in the 'translation', but a lot of it is probably in the Cayman Island banks.

Sue

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#151489 - 10/09/08 11:34 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: MartinFocazio]
LED Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/01/05
Posts: 1474
One of my favorite daily reads. Some call Roubini "Mr. Doom," but so far he's been pretty accurate.

Quote:

The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms.

........................................

At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the US and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six month recession – has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession – like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out.



http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor

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#151512 - 10/10/08 03:09 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: ]
Stu Offline
I am not a P.P.o.W.
Old Hand

Registered: 05/16/05
Posts: 1058
Loc: Finger Lakes of NY State
Originally Posted By: BigDaddyTX
I just got a 10% paycut today, and I'm in the title business. Not a good time to have anything to do with real estate. At least they're just giving the cut by giving us 2 days off a month unpaid instead of making us work the same # of days but just less hours.

IMHO, Often, a paycut beats not having a job, especially in this job market.
_________________________
Our most important survival tool is our brain, and for many, that tool is way underused! SBRaider
Head Cat Herder

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#151516 - 10/10/08 03:24 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: Stu]
thseng Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 03/24/06
Posts: 900
Loc: NW NJ
This being the start of a worldwide economic collapse and all, I figure I need more friends because among my friends, family, co-workers and acquaintances, I'm not aware of ANYONE who has:

Lost his job
Had his pay cut
Had a car repo'ed
Been foreclosed on
Lost his health insurance
Closed his business
Moved into a homeless shelter
Began working for food

So I'm having a little trouble working myself up to a proper level of panicked frenzy. Plus I'm expecting an offer for a new job (w/ pay increase) any day now.

Plus gas and heating oil prices are back down to where they were a year ago and still going down.

Sorry.

_________________________
- Tom S.

"Never trust and engineer who doesn't carry a pocketknife."

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#151518 - 10/10/08 03:53 PM Re: Well, now we're into a new territory. [Re: thseng]
Nishnabotna Offline
Icon of Sin
Addict

Registered: 12/31/07
Posts: 512
Loc: Nebraska
Originally Posted By: thseng
This being the start of a worldwide economic collapse and all, I figure I need more friends because among my friends, family, co-workers and acquaintances, I'm not aware of ANYONE who has:


Had his pay cut


Except for BigDaddyTX.

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