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#126071 - 03/03/08 01:26 AM Long Range Weathe Forecast
wildman800 Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 2817
Loc: La-USA
I read a "DoD Think Tank" (unclassified) report about 8 years ago that stated the next important National Security Concern would be the weather. More extreme (powerful) storms of all types with the emphasis being on wind.

I do believe that report's projections are coming true and on time. Wind is forecasted to become more forceful and of longer duration from the mid-west eastward to the Atlantic Ocean. It is expected to continue increasing up to the year 2050.

Today in Corpus Christi, We're seeing 20mph gusting up to 60mph!

Perhaps this is another aspect to take into preparation considerations. One problem with high winds is interruption of electrical service. Product distribution is also greatly influenced by high winds, especially where "just in time delivery" is the mainstay of many businesses.
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#126076 - 03/03/08 02:19 AM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: wildman800]
BobS Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
They canít tell us if itís going to rain in 2-weeks, why should anyone think they have any real idea whatís going to happen with the weather long term?
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You can run, but you'll only die tired.


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#126081 - 03/03/08 02:32 AM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: ]
OldBaldGuy Offline
Geezer

Registered: 09/30/01
Posts: 5695
Loc: Former AFB in CA, recouping fr...
"...just blow away an entire housing development..."

We have been having 40-50 mph winds all day in SW Arizona, and our home on wheels development just about rolled over and ended up in Mexico...
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#126084 - 03/03/08 02:54 AM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: BobS]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
Quote:
They canít tell us if itís going to rain in 2-weeks, why should anyone think they have any real idea whatís going to happen with the weather long term?


Long term computer modelling was used to determine the global weather trends for the next 100 years. The BBC used distributed computing techniques and over 250,000 computers around the world were used (each computer had slightly different starting conditions and each computer took upto 3-6 months to calculate a single global weather projection, the averaged results then gave a reasonable certainty trend).

The results can be seen here at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/climateexperiment/


Most of the USA is going to be on average 6-8 C warmer.



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#126090 - 03/03/08 03:38 AM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: wildman800]
bsmith Offline
day hiker
Addict

Registered: 02/15/07
Posts: 584
Loc: ventura county, ca
curious you bring this up.

i work across the street from the beach / pacific ocean.

i've lived / worked in this area for 28 years.

we've had more strong winds in the past two years than i recall in the past 28.

nothing scientific about it, just my day-to-day existence / experience.




Edited by bsmith (03/03/08 03:38 AM)
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#126118 - 03/03/08 01:43 PM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: ]
OldBaldGuy Offline
Geezer

Registered: 09/30/01
Posts: 5695
Loc: Former AFB in CA, recouping fr...
All they are is SWAG's (that would be Scientific Wild Assed Guesses)...
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#126119 - 03/03/08 01:49 PM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: bsmith]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
I think any forecasting has a bit of science to it and a bit of anything but. The results from any model are going to depend on the assumptions you make with regard to them. The recent predictions for hurricane seasons (the last two years) have been way off. Predicting the weather in two weeks, requires assumptions to be made with regard to how air masses are going to move, and they rarely move exactly as expected for such a long period. Dragging those predictions out over long periods, i.e. decades, is something science has not been trying to do for that long. The earth, however, has been warming up for about 18,000 years. Do we understand why? Do we really get why the earth has had ice ages or periods when lots of it was almost tropical? I don't think so, from what I've read. So, if why global temperatures have changed in the past is not understood, how are changes going to be predicted?

The earth has gone through several periods when the climate has been much colder and several when it has been warmer than it is now. My one prediction is that I bet both happen again.

As far as the original question, yes. Yes, you should be prepared for possible scenarios invovling high winds, because in the case of many storms, the wind is what does a lot of damage. If only rain and snow caused damage, we would not have much more than flooding, which would make preparing easier.

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#126155 - 03/03/08 05:17 PM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: ]
MoBOB Offline
Veteran

Registered: 09/17/07
Posts: 1219
Loc: here
I put as much faith in Climatology as I do Astrology; none.

When I was in the Air Force the Weather Forecaster's School (Advanced Training for Weather Observers) was lovingly known as "Darts and Dice".
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"Its not a matter of being ready as it is being prepared" -- B. E. J. Taylor

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#126162 - 03/03/08 05:57 PM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: MoBOB]
z96Cobra Offline
Stranger

Registered: 01/11/08
Posts: 17
Get the blankets out... "Global Warming" is over... grin

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,333328,00.html

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editor...bal_warming_go/

http://www.nationalpost.com/opinion/columnists/story.html?id=332289

I don't really believe that humans are the cause of "Global Warming", but we may play a small part in it. The Earth has warmed and cooled many times throughout history without any help from us. Besides, in the 70's there was talks of another Ice Age and we were trying to figure out how to artificially heat the planet! IMO we are just seeing another part of the cycle. We are near the end of the current solar cycle, so maybe things will start changing yet again??? Now who should we believe? confused

Roger

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#126164 - 03/03/08 06:30 PM Re: Long Range Weathe Forecast [Re: ]
BobS Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/08/08
Posts: 924
Loc: Toledo Ohio
I just donít see any weather predictions that seem to come true (more then a week out.) this. Iím sure the weather is going to change; it has for the last 4.5 Billion years this planet has been around, and is going to continue to change. Some places itís going to be better, some places itís going to be bad.

The focus always seems to be on the extreme and bad weather. The media is so starved for news that is based on doom & gloom they jump on any story (including weather ones) that pushes this gloom. Maybe itís all of us that focus on the bad, negative things in life, after all the media is only reporting what people are willing to watch. I try to not have such a negative view about things and donít buy into the idea that we (man) are the destroyer of this planet. Any time there is a weather story in the news itís always about how bad it is, and that we are in trouble, never anything nice or positive to say. And most times the weather is good or at least not bad, yes its rains in the spring and it snows in the winter, and there are hurricanes during hurricane season, but is this really news to anyone? I guess if you dwell on the negative and bad things you will always have news to keep your interest. Sadly most people buy into this negative reporting way too much.


Every prediction for global warming is about doom & gloom, how itís going to destroy the planet and our way of life. What if it does get a little warmer? Growing seasons will be longer, more food can be grown and sent to Africa or turned into fuel (a bad idea by the way.) It doesnít always mean a weather change is going to be bad. When the Vikings landed on Greenland in about 960 AD the bottom ľ of Greenland was in fact green, now itís all snow. If that happened today the media would be going nuts saying we were going to die. It didnít happen then (people lived through it) and it will not happen now if it were to get a bit warmer.


As a person that likes to be prepared, we should plan for storms and weather swings, but donít buy into the idea that itís only going to be bad for mankind.
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You can run, but you'll only die tired.


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