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#117646 - 12/27/07 03:02 AM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: Spiritwalker]
climberslacker Offline
Youth of the Nation
Addict

Registered: 09/02/07
Posts: 603
Here on teh CA coast, i live far enough away from teh ocean to not have to worry, but perhaps i was on the beach, and a tsunami hit (very possible) i would have nothing!!! I mean, really how much do you carry when your surfing, im thinking about getting a dive knife to take woth me to the beach, any thoughts??
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impossible is just the beginning

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#117669 - 12/27/07 02:32 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: climberslacker]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
My thought is that your post is mostly off-topic.
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Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#117671 - 12/27/07 03:55 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: Russ]
climberslacker Offline
Youth of the Nation
Addict

Registered: 09/02/07
Posts: 603
sory!
_________________________
http://jacesadventures.blogspot.com/
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
impossible is just the beginning

though i seek perfection, i wear my scars with pride

Have you seen the arrow?


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#117687 - 12/27/07 06:24 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disas [Re: climberslacker]
Dan_McI Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/10/07
Posts: 844
Loc: NYC
The mega hurricane does not worry me that much, unless it occurs because of a suddent change in the course of a storm. When the storm is heading for Long Island and then veers toward NYC, it will be a very bad situation. Experts claim that we are overdue, but NYC is a tough place for a hurricane to get on any normal path. Once above Hatteras, they tend to all head east, due to the prevailing winds and the coriolos effect. To get to NYC, it would need to move north with the Gulfstream, then head to the west. That's not a common path. It is probably going to need a Bermuda high that shifts to the north and keeps the storm from heading east. But the Bermuda high would also need to have either shifted east or be rather weak. A strong Bermuda high will drive a storm ashore much south of NYC.

The 1938 Storm passed 55 miles to the east of NYC. It was on a path created by circumstances like those I mention above.

Much more likely than a mega hurricane is a mega nor'Easter, like the so-called "Perfect Storm."

I think my biggest fear for an unprepared east coat would be if half of the doom and gloom about the Cumbra Vieja Volcano turned out to be true. Hopefully, the chances are slim. I've seen predictions of a tsumani 200 feet high striking the U.S. East Coast, within 7 hours after a massive landslide, with half of a mountain falling into the Atlantic. Many of the predcitions seem to exaggerate, but I think you need to prepare for the worst.

An evacuation from NYC would be nuts. Normal rush hours are bumper to bumper. In any serious evacuation for a hurricane, many more people would be leaving Long Island. Everyone would be heading to the north, and all roads leaving Manhattan and Long Island would be packed much worse than anything you see in the southeast for a hurricane. Trying to get anywhere and have gas to get anywhere would be difficult. Leave early.

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#117902 - 12/29/07 01:07 AM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: DesertFox]
teacher Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 12/14/05
Posts: 988
Even more likely than these; drought, tornado, blizzard, heat wave and power out. Not only likely, but they happen every year. I plan for the most likely events...

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#117999 - 12/29/07 05:41 PM Re: Popular Mechanics predicts 5 most likely disasters [Re: teacher]
Art_in_FL Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/01/07
Posts: 2432
Originally Posted By: teacher
Even more likely than these; drought, tornado, blizzard, heat wave and power out. Not only likely, but they happen every year. I plan for the most likely events...


IMHO the only smart way of prioritizing is to prepare for the most likely events first. And work from fast, simple and cheap to slow, complicated and expensive.

I told a friend that if he really wanted to save his life he should wear his seatbelt and put a mat down in the shower. He started wearing his seatbelt after his truck skidded and he lost control because he couldn't keep his butt behind the wheel. He drove into the ditch at 50mph and came within 50' of the sudden stop from dead-ending into a culvert. A stop with him going through the windshield.

He came back the next day still rattled from what might have happened. He has worn the seatbelt since then.

I have long advocated a 'start small and work your way your way up slowly' approach. Of course the die-hards loudly declare that if your not preparing for a global nuclear war your not a 'survivalist'. Which is pretty funny because, given the slack-jawed gun-fondling nature of most survivalists, I had never wanted associate myself with the groups or apply the term to myself.

That isn't to say I haven't picked up up a few pointers from survivalists when they were lucid and talking sense about practical matters of survival field craft or first-aid. I pick up pearls where I find them. While ignoring their politics, conspiracy theories, gun porn and alarmist rants. Many of them are good people. Wrapped a little tight and confused about their priorities but good folks.

Funny thing is is that if you prepare for the known and expected challenges your always going to have the rare and unexpected disaster pretty well covered also. Trapped and isolated without power or running water after a hurricane has a lot in common with trapped and isolated because of a invasion of evil two-headed aliens. Either way you still have to eat, drink, stay warm.

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