I have relatives in Hawaii, so I watched with interest as Hurricane Flossie was upgraded to a Category 4 a couple days ago. But at the time, all the reports were saying that: a) Flossie would likely weaken to just a tropical storm as it hit colder water soon, and b) It's storm track would be well away from the Hawiian Islands. That was two days ago. Then yesterday, gee, the tune changed to: a) It's not weakening so much (still a Cat 2), and b) It's headed for the Hawaiian Islands!

Anyway, although Flossie is not going to be a tremendous blow for the Big Island, this incident just reminded me that with hurricanes and other serious weather, forecasting is definitely still an evolving science. That said, being already prepared before anything becomes imminent is obviously the best strategy because if you wait for the weather folks to warn you of "definite" danger, you can really find yourself caught flat footed.

Actually, this also reminded me of the tough job that emergency managers have, particularly regarding things that take a lot of time, like ordering an evacuation. If it's going to take 48 hours to evacuate a metropolitan region but a hurricane forecast can flip-flop in less than 24 hours, that's a really tough position to be in.

I'm not trying to take away from the seriousness of a hurricane or tropical storm, but when did we start naming hurricanes after my uncle Ethan's milk cow?

Biscuits

I live on Oahu and I've obviously been watching the storm closely. Most people here in the islands seem to understand you need to prepare for a hurricane, but it surprises me how many people wait till the last second to grab the things they need. Makes me happy I stock up ahead of time and I don't have to fight the lines or search for a store that still has batteries.

I agree with the comment about the emergency managers. With hurricanes you at least have some warning that a storm is comming, but on top off all this, there was a earthquake on the Big Island this morning. I'm sure it is tough to deal with two potential emergencies at the same time.

They ran out of names for people, so they started on cows. Someone wanted to use the scientific names of bugs, but everyone else thought they were too hard to pronounce.

Sue

I have to leave for a business trip first thing tomorrow morning (well, actually earlier than that) and I hope the winds don't toss the plane around too much.

At least I leave my family stocked up with stuff even though I don't think it will hit too hard. And being on Oahu, we are farther away, but storm systems are huge. It was pretty windy at my place all day today.

Hmm, again, things are not what people expected. After Flossie surprised forecasters and kept up its energy and headed for the Big Island, everyone was expecting gusty winds, high surf, and 10-15 inches of rain on the Big Island, possibly causing extensive flash flooding overnight. But I just saw on the Weather Channel when I woke up this morning that even that never really materialized last night as Flossie lost strength faster than anyone expected. The reporter was saying that the winds just completely died last night where he was on the Big Island, and no rains and the air was dry. Gee, that was a major dud after all. What a wacky hurricane experience.

"...forecasting is definitely still an evolving science..."

I was a weather guy in the Air Farce in the '60's, and I swear that forecasts back then, done with nothing but the current and past weather at various locations combined with a knowledge of weather patterns, were more accurate than they are today, with compters, satellites, and no telling what else. It seems that they have evolved backwards...

I've got to agree with you there!

Several years ago, I read where someone, somewhere, kept track of the local weather predictions, then took note of the weather that actually happened. The meteorologists were wrong 65% of the time.

I've watched local forecasts predict nighttime temps of 26F with rain. Twenty-six degrees with RAIN??? Funny how it always turns out to be SNOW!

The problem with the weather forecasters is that you can't actually depend on them to be wrong, either.

Sue

The last I heard yesterday from our local radio newsclown was that the "Mayor of Hawaii" had declared a state of emergency.

I know that it will pain you to hear that your local "newsclown" is correct--the "Big Island" of Hawaii does have a mayor.