- It has happened before, and it will happen again.

- Death rates may be very low, and usually are. But the H5N1 virus in it's current form has roughly a 25-50% human mortality rate with animal to human transmission. Nobody knows what it will be in human to human pandemic form.

- The most depressing conference I ever attended: "Dealing with the dead from a flu pandemic"

- Full employment for estate and probate attorneys!

- Funeral homes use "just in time" delivery, too. Crematory capacity is also limited, as is cemetery space. Refrigeration will be required. Plan on a long wait. But the dead won't be burned on pyres or bulldozed into trenches. They will be treated respectfully and accounted for.

- To the extent vaccines or drugs are useful, the means exist to distribute them quite efficiently. Insuring production capacity is still a work in progress. identifying the strain of flu causing the pandemic in sufficient time, with sufficient accuracy, is the core problem in producing vaccines.

- Treating flu victims is largely supportive. There is no pill that really fights viral diseases like influenza.

- The limiting factor for the health care facilities is the number of ventilators (machines that breathe for you or help you breathe) available. Hospitals are otherwise better prepared than you might think for surges, isolation, etc.

- Frequent hand washing and simple face masks offer a good deal of protection. Get your masks early, since they will be very hard to find at retail. N95 is excellent, N100 is overkill, and simple cloth or paper will do.

- The flu is most dangerous for the young, elderly, ill and immune-compromised. But the brutal, global, "Spanish" flu pandemic following WWI seemed to kill healthy young adults disproportionately, while the elderly seemed to enjoy partial immunity due to some prior epidemic in their youth.

- True "home nursing" of the seriously ill is pretty much a lost art, families are smaller, with more working members, and people will struggle to care for ill family members at home.

- Think about day care. Schools are likely to be closed.

- Most people cannot afford to stay home from work for the several weeks to a few months it takes for an epidemic to run its main course. For many, holing up just isn't an option. Others will find they have no jobs. Unemployment will be a major issue.

- Truly essential infrastructure and commerce is likely to be maintained, in large part because such activities don't often involve direct contact with a lot of other people. Moreover, everyone doesn't get sick all at once. Other things may not fare so well, causing considerable disruption and inconvenience.

- The way you do business is likely to be quite different. Browsing the aisles at the local grocery may be out. You might find yourself phoning or e-mailing a list, and picking up your bagged order by appointment. There are a variety of plans out there, but nobody really knows.

- Many of the worst problems will be unnecessary and avoidable, driven by panic, misinformation, fear, lack of preparedness, and social upheaval.

Maybe this will stimulate some useful discussion. It's not really useful by itself. Sorry, I'm just sick and illness and disaster is on my mind, I suppose.

Jeff