Here in urban Los Angeles, most SHTF situations we've faced were vastly overrated. Earthquake, riot, wildfire get lots of airplay, but have surprisingly little effect on the majority of people.

Outside a really large earthquake, or a terrorist attack of extremely large proportion, the best thing to do is not freak out.

Terrorism threat should be put into perspective. Even if the US managed to sustain a 9/11 sized casualty amount from terrorism once a year, one's chances of dying by terrorist would still be dwarfed by one's chances of dying in a traffic accident.

I agree. If you read the current NIE, al-Qaida isn't a "most likely" threat. Granted al-Qaida's threat is real and could bring massive loss of life and infrastructure if they were successful. It will be with us for years to come, but weather events (including earthquakes) are more likely.

What, the state fair doesn't seem like a prize target to you? What about the Wegmans in Hunt Valley? That place is packed on the weekends.

I live in Lutherville.

In Houston, I think the biggest threat of SHTF is probably social unrest. Whether due to shortages of gasoline which could immobilize large portions of the population or due to a Rodney King style race riot, I think social unrest is the biggest threat. Dealing with hungry people with no transportation in a city designed specifically for cars would be catestrophic. But we live far enough from the city proper to be able to avoid dealing with localized civil unrest.

Secondary threats I would consider would be a pipeline explosion or a train carrying hazardous material derailing. These are threats I have no control over and short of keeping the car gassed up and my escape routes covered can't do much to prepare for.

I no longer count Hurricanes as an emergency anymore. They're similar to snow storms in Wyoming, they're going to happen and you prepare for them every year. Again the biggest threat from civil unreast in the aftermath.


Going to school in Wyoming, the biggest threat is from a train derailing in town. The major problem with that is it eliminates three of the four routes out of town. Everyone east of the railroad tracks (most people including me) would have to evacuate east on I-80 and the grid lock would be unimaginable. A potential solution would be owning a motorcycle since that could allow me to trickle through traffic I'd be unable to circumvent in a car.

Living in Northern California my most likely SHTF are.

1. Fire
2. Flood
3. Earthquake

No matter where you live a most common SHTF scenario would be financial problems.

With the crowds the Fair has been drawing the last few years, I wouldn't consider it too big a target.

Wegmans, on the other hand, does draw a big crowd, but it's so far out in the hinterlands of the area that I doubt any Ter'rist will ever hear about it.