The radio stations on our area (Midwest) are running PSAs about the probability that a strain of pandemic flu will hit this country in the foreseeable future. The PSAs point out that people should have a 2-week supply of food and water on hand since quarantines are likely. Thus they are assuming that utilities will be affected by personnel losses. Not mentioned overtly but strongly implied is the distinct possibility of no utility services due to personnel being sick or quarantined or worse, no deliveries of fuel to gas stations, no deliveries of food to grocery stores, etc. My assumption would be that safety forces would be similarly affected and overwhelmed.

It's definitely a "hunker down" situation. It would be against the law to try to bug out of a quarantine area, and how do you outrun a virus, anyway?

What are your thoughts about minimum/optimum equipment, supplies and associated techniques to survive this predicted scenario?

id be very interested to hear some more thoughts on this. especially considering the TB scare just encountered.

I think this is one of the main reasons for being prepared. Almost all other events will allow you to BugOut. Having a BOB is nice to have, but having a minimum of two weeks supplies at home is more important in most situations.

Minimum preps-
1)70 gallons of water on hand per person.
2)2 weeks worth of canned foods.
3)enough fuel to cook that food.
4)battery powered radio with large supply of batteries.
5)some way to be entertained to keep from go stir crazy.

Maximum preps-
1)generator with stabilized fuel for a month.
2)food and water for at least one month.
3)Large supply of books for reading(might as well learn something)
4)way of filtering all the air in the house.

This is just a short list of what you need. Detailed lists can go on for pages and is only limited by your budget.

Just curious MOAlan,..why 70 gallons per person? I thought 1-2 gallons per person per day was the norm,...i.e 14 to 28 gallons for a two week supply. Otherwise, good advice,...I need more books :-)

Shamus62,

One to two gallons a week is what the government tells you is required. Doug Ritter on the otherhand tells us that 5 gallons a day is what we will truely need between drinking, food prep and sanitation.

Hi Frank2135,

I think those PSAs suggesting 2 weeks supply of food and water should be revised. The UK National Health Service (NHS) ran a study on this scenario. From their results the timescales should be nearer 2-3 months self quarantine, with the high probability of a second round of infection within 6 months again lasting 2-3 months. A quarter of the population was projected to become infected with the pandemic flu.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/924/0040586.pdf

Not a bad suggestion, I think for a lot of people a week is more likely to be stocked if just for psychological reasons.

I'm much more concerned about those PSAs. Who's paying for them, and can you give us the exact wording? Because honestly, while an influenza pandemic is a concern, and a real one, it's also a low probability concern. I'm wondering if you've got someone whos got an agenda here.

Don't forget to stock up on sauerkraut, hmm, yummy!

A number of organizations are mentioned, and it sticks in my mind that its a "message from the Ad Council". I'll try to catch it in the morning in the next few days, and make a few notes.

The message is fairly long, talking about the difference between seasonal flu and pandemic flu. It stresses that quarantines may occur, and that there may be "some disruption of services" as a result. It recommends preparedness in the form of having a two week supply of food and water on hand, medications stocked up, etc. That's about it.

My primary concern, living where I do, is that if an outbreak occurred during winter months and there were a disruption in delivery of heating oil, natural gas and/or electricity, it would be extremely serious. We're well stocked with food and water for the family memebrs that would gather here to wait out the quarantine. That's less of a problem for me than heat when the temperature hovers around zero for days at a time. I have an oil-fired boiler system, so if the tank is full (note to self: keep tank topped up) and I can get power to the circulating pump and ignition system, we'll be OK. I'm working out now what sort of generating equipment I will need to accomplish that.

Cooking is also an issue. Hot beverages are awfully comforting in cold weather, and cold food gets tiresome after a while. I'm looking at an alcohol stove. The efficiency is lower than propane, but I have concerns about long term storage of propane. Nothing like picking up a tank and realizing only then that's it's empty to ruin your day.

While this may seem inadequate to us, I'm guessing that the general public really has to start somewhere. If the government could actually persuade everybody to set aside a dedicated two-week-per-person supply of food, water, and medications, just think what a huge step forward it would be. When you factor in the rather large amount of foodstuffs many people already have hiding in their pantrys and fridges, then two weeks doesn't seem like too bad a beginning. But water always seems to be the weak link. I'm afraid you are just not going to get most people to store 70 gallons of water per person around the ol' 2 bedroom apartment. You'll be lucky to get them to store 1 gallon per day.

OK, I was just having this image of some church or something buying air time and preaching the end of the world or something. Not as worried- it sounds like maybe Ohio has a real Civil Defense program.

As for the alcohol stove, they work great. Above 40 degrees. I'm not a fan of them indoors period, even on something like a screened in porch, simply becuase the flame is so pale you might not see it if you have leak or spill that has ignited until it's ignited something else.

And a closed propane tank will be tight unless it's so rusted it's rotted through. Just watch the dial.

Just asking out of curiosity: at near-zero temps, how long does a full tank of heating oil last you? I'm on the west coast, and heating with oil is uncommon here.

One thing to keep in mind, if your heating facilities can do it, might be to restrict heat to just one or two rooms in an emergency. Move the beds so everyone is in the same room, etc.

Last winter, a couple invited 42 stranded people into their 1200 sqft home. I venture to guess that they had more of a cooling problem than a heating problem, due to body heat.

It certainly would be nice to have some kind of warning for this scenario, but I doubt that it will happen.

Sue with wood heat

It's a 400-gallon tank, so in a typical winter here it will last about 80 days (the below-zero weather is usually broken by "warm" spells where it's only in the mid-twenties). We also use the boiler for heating our domestic hot water, and in a survival scenario I would probably turn off the valve to the hot water tank heating coils, which could extend the heating time significantly. The system has zones, so we can close off the upstairs heat, for example, and heat a smaller area longer. As I said, none of it works without electricity, so I will need a generator to get power to the circulating pump. The amount of fuel I have for the generator and its efficiency will be the big limiting factor. After the genny gives out, we huddle around the old fireplace (note to self: cut and split more wood).

Back to the PSAs: the World Health Organization is sponsoring them, with the assistance/approval of CDC. I should've just asked my wife, who is the health and safety coordinator for our local school district. The public schools have been advised to develop pandemic flu emergency plans, and she knew all about the PSAs. She also told me some "experts" say to expect the flu to come in waves, and that quarantines of affected areas, while intermittent, may total 6 weeks or more. Gory detail: the WHO and CDC suggest that school buildings may be adaptable as temporary morgues.

She was also told that in the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic, it was the young healthy people, by and large, who died. The elderly did not, because (they theorize) the latter were less likely to get out and about and be exposed.

Sorry about the length of this post. I sincerely hope the "experts" are wrong about all this, but when it gets cloudy you can either hope it doesn't rain or get an umbrella. I opt for the umbrella.

Hmm, 42 people at 300-400 btu/hr per person would be @ 15,000 btu/hr. In a 1,200 sq ft home, I would be inclined to agree that heating the home was not an issue. Keeping it nice smelling might be a concern.

I have a 275 gallon tank and in my 75 year old ~1200 sqft poorly insulated house we can go through that much in a month (ouch!) in the depths of winter.

The boiler has a coil in it for domestic hot water ("tankless"). Hot water consumes negligable fuel - we run all summer with hardly any change in the fuel level.

The water will thermosiphon through the radiators quite well when you manually open the check valve, so I'm thinking about investing in a small inverter, some deep cycle batteries and a trickle charger as a backup power supply for the burner.

On the other hand, a completely indepentant backup heating system like a wood stove would be better...

A WHO/CDC project... I'll bounce it to my medical intell person, she's probably got the transcript in her files. If she doesn't, she'll want it. :P

I listened to the PSA again today, and it also mentioned this web site for more information:

http://www.pandemicflu.gov

I've only looked at it briefly.

It's strange... sort of full circle that I saw this message. It was the frequent pushing of the coming bird flu epidemic that drove me to start preparing my family and eventually find this site. After seeing this I realize that I still have things to do. The paranoid in me is saying this is thinly disguised fear mongering in key political states. But the survivalist in me says "good" if for no other reason than maybe it will get more people thinking and more importantly doing something to prepare.

For me water supply is really a big deal. I do have quite a bit in storage, but don't have a ton of room. The water barrel solution seems ideal for a hunker down, and I would use that before any portable water. I have got certainly less than 70gal in storage if you dismiss the water heater (50gal). I don't have a ton of basement storage, so I'm curious what everyone does for mobility and tips for tight storage places. Any recommendations for specific stoves and supplies (links please!), especially ones which are portable or could be converted for camping/bugging out would be helpful. I hate cold beans.