Hope a CAT 3 or 4 hurricane never hits Long Island

New Yorkers give little thought to hurricanes since Long Island is so far from the warm, tropical oceans that feed hurricanes. However, according to the 1984 Hurricane Damage Mitigation Plan by the Long Island Regional Planning Board, several hurricanes and 15 tropical storms have made landfall in this area since 1886. According to historical record, there have been five "epic hurricanes" (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir Simpson Scale) in the years 1938, 1893, 1821, 1815, and 1635 (Hughes).

An empirical study of 20 past hurricanes that have impacted the New York City and Long Island coast regions by Scheffner and Butler (1996) found that the return period of a category 3 or greater hurricane is approximately 80 years. A strong category 3 or minimal category 4 hurricane has a return frequency of approximately 200 years. (Click graph to the right for larger image.) Therefore, it is not unlikely that another "epic" hurricane will strike the Long Island coastal region in the coming decades.