Welcome to the forum and nice kit!

A few comments/suggestions:

- You have listed HD-aluminium foil twice.
- As you said, you could replace the emergency poncho (pocket-size right) with a lightweight nylon or PVC poncho. I know that Coghlan's makes a 'mill-spec' poncho. There should probably be others.
- With that poncho, do you still need a tarp?
- I would replace the HD garbage bags with a AMK heatsheet or thermolight bivvy.
You've got a mess-kit and a lexan dish. I would take just the mess-tin, because you can also cook with it.
- Maybe it's better to get a stainless-steel cup to fit on the nalgene bottle instead of the sierra-cup. It saves some more space.
- As you said, some water-purification tabs or a filter
- A LED-headlamp would be very useful.(or is that 'Cheapo (but pretty good) Brinkman multi-LED*' a headlamp?)

Again, welcome!