Well, the Orion's belt is exactly on the equator of the celestial sphere. So it's 90 deg. off the Polaris. Also the size of the "dagger" (which is really pointing to Polaris) is so tiny - you can cover it with your thumb. I doubt it's a good guide to Polaris. It's more like an indicator to look into opposite direction for Big Dipper or Cassiopeia.