Actually, the people of Iran DO find out. Blackmarket satellite dishes and shortwave antennas have phases where they are cracked down on, but by and large it's too big for the Iranian government to actually do anything significant without social disruption. About a month ago, they started on fresh crackdowns- which means your door gets knocked on, they seize your antenna, and write you a ticket. The ticket works out to about the cost of a new home made dish on the streets. Yes, they read you a schpel, and you have you to sign the ticket to show yes, you were a bad boy, and you are sorry, and you'll pay within X days.

No big deal. The total cost of a new dish, including the ticket, is still about two hundred and fifty dollars. Which sounds like a lot given the income levels, but people often buy these as a group in the lower income neighborhoods, and share the cost of the fine. Even MILITARY BARRACKS buy them as a group, and hide them- although thier fine is supposed to be higher, and includes punishment details and field exercises that are on the brutal side. And this is about all that the Iranian government can do, becuase as much as the highest levels of leadership hate it (at least the ones who look around the real world do; many are oblivious), they know that short of utterly draconian measures, the cycle will continue. They also know that if they choose to, say, set up labor camps for offenders, that (a) they will lose a lot of thier middle management guys, and (b) the Europeans and Japanese will be very upset. Upset enough that there would be an exodus of hard currancy- the ruble and yuan just don't qualify. This isn't a handful of soreheads and heretics- this is something more than 2/3 of the population.

The sheer mass of the "problem" leads to a strong blackmarket, and not just for this kind of thing. Just like the Soviets, Tehran can't completely squash thier blackmarket. So they try to moderate it. They know if they go in with both feet, not only do they lose outside money, they will also have a problem in the streets the likes of which they haven't seen in 27 years. They know that if they wait too long, they might have that same problem in the streets. As a result, they only crack down on the dishes and shortwaves when they are about to do something silly, or the mood on the street is getting grumpy. So far, they've done a pretty good job.

The Iranian government is full of unstable characters, but the Iranian people want to be fairly secular, that has been clear for a decade now. (There is a problem when you don't allow journalists into your country- thier country doesn't let yours in, and you have no street level data, only the official press releases. Gotta love the European press some days.) Particularly the young people. When they have thier Tienamen, I hope the world does more than watch with thier collective thumbs up their butts this time.

That being said, a lot people think that the Iranian version of Trinity will be Tel Aviv. Me, I think it will be a test blast in the desert, but if they start seizing dishes AND thier command structure leaves town as one, well, don't be suprised if I place a second bet to counter my main one.