I was reading the Long-Term Preparedness board several weeks ago and was taken in by a few predictions about August 22nd. Basically, Iran was going to answer the UNs nuclear questions with a strike against Israel thus bringing on world war three and ending life as we know it.
August came and went… we’re still here…
People have been predicting the end of the world since the beginning of the world and most have been way off. As anyone who frequents this site knows, we can prepare for many future problems (seen or unseen) with a few basic tools, supplies and skills. Just the acknowledgement of potential scenarios is a step in the right direction.
The problem (one of them anyway) for those of us that believe “something” is going to happen is, our predictions are usually wrong.
I don’t mean to single out those among us that thought August 22nd was the date. I still think an Iranian nuclear strike on Israel is a possibility. I also think another Katrina type storm is likely. Why not be prepared?
Many of my neighbors (and most of the American public I think) get alert and then relax so often they are turning to apathy or denial. One neighbor told me I had only encouraged him to waste $10 on gallons of water last fall when we never had the big snowstorm I thought he should be ready for. Now the water “tastes like plastic” and he dumped it, and doesn’t plan to replace it.
The point of this... Friends, family, neighbors, the government, all seem to loose interest over time when nothing bad happens and are caught off guard when it does. How do we, as people who try to be and stay prepared, keep others from getting “battle fatigue”?

Lots of people handle it different ways.

Me, I'm a nervous cooker. When I'm wired, get out of the kitchen unless you want to be an ingredient. Which kinda sucks, becuase I'm trying to lose weight. :P

Exercise. Eat better. If you smoke, stop. If you drink, drink less. Get a constructive hobby that has NOTHING to do with kit building and watching world events- reading and movies don't count, but writing does (at least for me). Learn to laugh at yourself at all times, and be greatful that you're wrong when the worst doesn't happen. Talk to your family and friends about your "morbid little hobby" (to quote an ex of mine- that's part of why she's an ex), get them involved.

After all, "what if" is a great party game. Start with the simple (tornado), and work your way up to the just flat out strange. Like mutated penguins with psi powers and military surplus weapons from some brushwar in the Lesser Magenellic Cloud, led by the pickled brain of Trotsky, are invading. If you can even SAY it with a straight face, you need help. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

I'm afraid my approach is to not go overboard on the "Alert" phase. I sometimes use predicted events as a deadline to get my kit in order - the Millenium Bug was a big one for me - but I don't really do anything that needs undoing if the disaster doesn't happen. I mostly just do stuff that I enjoy. Preparedness isn't a chore for me, nor is it something I lie awake at night having anxiety attacks over.

Also, it's my experience that minor disasters do happen. For example, I got a bread-maker machine and started to stockpile flour for Dec 31st 1999. A few years later we had a fuel strike, supermarkets couldn't get restocking deliveries and their bread ran out after less than a week. So then it was useful to have my own stuff. Similarly I have gas central heating, and also an open coal fire. I came back from holiday one year to find the central heating broken. My stockpiles of coal meant I could keep the house warm anyway.

In the case of Iran. On the one hand we are talking about extremists. On the other we are talking about politicians who are a little more savvy and practical (at least then the extremists). Even those in Iran.

If we've learned one thing from the last decade (especially when it comes to elections), courting a more extreme than moderate group of people can sometimes be a necessity to maintain power. In the case of Iran, you're dealing with a group of very closed-minded individuals (who view most things western as evil) with an extreme idology. I have a feeling that those in power, especially the president of Iran, doesn't want nuclear war more than anyone else.

With Israel being the only nuclear power in the region (and somehow they always forget Pakistan), I'm sure the people of Iran feel threatened. I'm also sure the leaders there want to maintain that fear in order to get away with actions that would normally be protested or investigated. And so they play a game with the US and the UN in order to maintain a pressure and fear on everyone. Iran definitely wants nuclear weapons, but only as leverage.

The leaders of Israel won't use nuclear weapons. Neither will the current leadership of Iran. It's in neithers' interest to do so. But it is in both their interests to be able to maintain that threat and the illusion of willingness to do so. If you have a gun and everyone knows you won't use it, you might as well be packing a pigeon.

The Iranian people are a very patriotic people that are moved by the fear that the West will come in and wipe out or at least taint their faith and culture. Fear and patriotism are two of the most powerful forces to move a people. But they can both be manipulated and the effects can be horrific (the Nazis being a perfect example).

For those looking for an End-Of-The-World scenario I think they will be dissappointed. There will be always be great disasters (the recent Tsunami). There will be horrific attacks made upon innocent people (9/11). Even devastating failures of our technology (the power outage on the east coast). But we are adaptive. Usually we run a little behind but we eventual catch up and adapt to whatever situation arises.

As far as keeping people aware and prepared, well there will be people that are prepared and those that aren't. And you can't use a constant threat of fear to make them prepared. But take the case of Florida and the last few years of hurricanes (I've been here since Charley). The first one hits and everyone is caught unawares. The second one, everyone is over prepared. Then people find a balance and the preparation just becomes apart of your life. Luckily since Andrew, the building codes now in place are designed to meet the needs of a hurricane prone area. New Orleans had no such codes. You can bet your ass that won't be the case in the future.

I myself am a bit of a pessimist. Which means, if there is one think I love, it's to be wrong. And if I'm right? I'm just a little more prepared.

Now that we have twenty-four hour news coverage, they have to have something to report. What would have been handled as a segment, or possibly as the lead, on the Network Evening News before cable now becomes the latest "Scare-Yourself-Silly-CRISIS-OF-THE-DAY."

It's a wonder we're not all on high blood pressure medication.

People are individuals. You will always have the grasshoppers and the ants. All anyone can do is point out the obvious, and then it is up to them to react.

In Ohio, anyone can apply for a conceal carry weapon (CCW) permit. Some percentage of citizens in the state will obtain their permit due eithr to the novelty, genuine concern for well being, to make a political statement, whatever. Some smaller percentage will actually carry everyday, but most will not.

The government can post recomendations for emergency preparation on websites, tv, newspaper and magazine adds. Community groups can post fliers. The Red Cross and other relief orgnaizations can advise on stocking for emergencies until blue in the face. Some percentage of the population will prepare for whatever reason hits them at the time. Some smaller percentage will actually keep it up and make it a part of their lifestyle.

You can show people the way, but some will never "get it". It is too hard, too inconvenient, too much work, gets in the way of play time, whatever.

My cynicism is showing again.

You are wrong with regards to Iran. If Iran obtains nuclear weapons they will use them against Israel. It is Iranian state policy to eradicate Israel.
The people of Iran live in a theocracy. The will of Allah, as interpreted by his Mullah's is paramount. They are not exposed to, or permitted to find out about the West's true intentions.
Israel, unlike Iran, has foresworn first use of such weapons unless:
1) Such weapons are used against them. That includes the threat to use them.
2) The survival of the state is threatened. i.e. The Israelie Army has been defeated and they are about to be overrun.
Which, as far as any Israelie is concerned, means a second holocaust.
Iran has not, and will not, give such an undertaking.

Actually, the people of Iran DO find out. Blackmarket satellite dishes and shortwave antennas have phases where they are cracked down on, but by and large it's too big for the Iranian government to actually do anything significant without social disruption. About a month ago, they started on fresh crackdowns- which means your door gets knocked on, they seize your antenna, and write you a ticket. The ticket works out to about the cost of a new home made dish on the streets. Yes, they read you a schpel, and you have you to sign the ticket to show yes, you were a bad boy, and you are sorry, and you'll pay within X days.

No big deal. The total cost of a new dish, including the ticket, is still about two hundred and fifty dollars. Which sounds like a lot given the income levels, but people often buy these as a group in the lower income neighborhoods, and share the cost of the fine. Even MILITARY BARRACKS buy them as a group, and hide them- although thier fine is supposed to be higher, and includes punishment details and field exercises that are on the brutal side. And this is about all that the Iranian government can do, becuase as much as the highest levels of leadership hate it (at least the ones who look around the real world do; many are oblivious), they know that short of utterly draconian measures, the cycle will continue. They also know that if they choose to, say, set up labor camps for offenders, that (a) they will lose a lot of thier middle management guys, and (b) the Europeans and Japanese will be very upset. Upset enough that there would be an exodus of hard currancy- the ruble and yuan just don't qualify. This isn't a handful of soreheads and heretics- this is something more than 2/3 of the population.

The sheer mass of the "problem" leads to a strong blackmarket, and not just for this kind of thing. Just like the Soviets, Tehran can't completely squash thier blackmarket. So they try to moderate it. They know if they go in with both feet, not only do they lose outside money, they will also have a problem in the streets the likes of which they haven't seen in 27 years. They know that if they wait too long, they might have that same problem in the streets. As a result, they only crack down on the dishes and shortwaves when they are about to do something silly, or the mood on the street is getting grumpy. So far, they've done a pretty good job.

The Iranian government is full of unstable characters, but the Iranian people want to be fairly secular, that has been clear for a decade now. (There is a problem when you don't allow journalists into your country- thier country doesn't let yours in, and you have no street level data, only the official press releases. Gotta love the European press some days.) Particularly the young people. When they have thier Tienamen, I hope the world does more than watch with thier collective thumbs up their butts this time.

That being said, a lot people think that the Iranian version of Trinity will be Tel Aviv. Me, I think it will be a test blast in the desert, but if they start seizing dishes AND thier command structure leaves town as one, well, don't be suprised if I place a second bet to counter my main one.

Don't get me wrong. What I said about Iran is just an observation. An opinion. I certainly well could be wrong. At the same time none of us truly know what their intentions really are. There are limitless possibilities. It could be that they are trying to provoke the Bush administration into another war (and you think Iraq is a tough situation), could be they actually just want nuclear power (unlikely but possible). I don't know. I'm equally ignorant of Israel's nuclear ambitions, as they yet to acknowledge they have nuclear weapons at all. And so, don't have a official policy in regards to those weapons.

I also don't assume the Iranian gov't is full of idiots. Even if they manage one nuclear weapon, they have no idea (and neither do we, not officially anyway) of how many Israel has. The whole situation seems very calculated and, if I had to take a guess, they are after something else. What makes it more difficult is how fragmented (with regards to their gov't) the population of Iran is right now.

Again I'm amazed at the genius of our forefathers in setting up a secular gov't and knowing how important it is for our gov't not to have that kind of influence over our religious beliefs.

Yeah, I'm afraid I'm not any better. Preparation for me is fun. I'm lazy, but luckily this kind of thing is one of my hobbies.

Just happens that it's preparing for survival situations not making scale models of trains out of toothpicks.