Isreal is prosecuting a two-front action, opined by them as a war. Syria and Iran are implicated. Syria and Iran are making open threats. I'm thinking that any preparedness items or activities that have been postponed ought to be attended to soon. What do you think?

Iran to? I only thought than Syria and Libanon were involved?

Anyway, all I'm going to say is that we knew this was going to happen. And it didn't start with those Israeli soldiers that got kidnapped.
This is from a long way back and the situation has finally escalated.

So much for diplomacy (and peace).......... <img src="/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

Now about preparedness: Well, because this conflict is going on for so long, people are probably already used to attacks, bombings, etc.
So maybe some are already prepared. Maybe they stocked food,water, made plans to escape, etc.

If they haven't done that yet, they have to start ASAP, maybe it's already to late....

Since the rumor is that Iran is behind the Hesbollah attacks, Israel may do the wet work for the US and knock out the Iraninan nuclear facilities. Either way, I don't see this spilling over onto US soil.

I'm not so much concerned about the "war" itself being on US ground as I am about a serious escalation in terrorist activity. Mostly what worries me is the "Katrina syndrome" that could have a certain portion of our population seeing disaster and/or chaos as an opportunity to run amock.

I know a guy who ate popcorn and drank cokes on rooftops with his friends watching the fireworks for "entertainment" in Beirut back in the early eighties. I met him in 1982 while he was learning English before starting college in Tennessee. He prepared himself....he never went back.

Like Jim said, this was just a matter of time. This a repeat it looks like.....when the IDF chased the PLO out of Lebanon. Now Hezbollah plays the PLO part getting chased out.

I think I would definitely have had my own plan and equipment to skeedaddle out of Lebanon if I lived there. Wouldn't someone like us forum users have had preplanned routes for exit that were not normally used? Routes Israeli jets wouldn't have bombed out already by now?

Would somebody who lives in that type of climate tell us what his BOB would contain?

My main concern with the Mideast situation is purely economics. The minute Israel has proof Iran is helping out then Iran will be going bye-bye, along with their oil. I'd place my money on oil reaching $90/barrel from that but I don't think the $100/barrel will be reached. However, the resulting shockwaves cause by hyper-expensive oil will not be pretty.

I don't think there will be any organized terrorist attacks inside the USA though. Most of the terrorist's money and leaders will be busy trying to saved their own asses from the big boot that is currently kicking them (Israel). There may be some "lone wolf" type attacks here in the USA, but nothing on the scale of 9/11 or 7/11 (UK), Madrid train bombing, India's recent train explosions, the Beslan school massacre, or any other "prostylizing" by the religion that can not be named.

-Blast

What kind of proof do you want?

The heads of both Hezbollah and Hamas being treated not only as dignitaries while visiting in Tehran, but as friends of that nation? As in banquets, press conferences, and the head of the theological branch of the Iranian government escorting them to give honor to Kohemani's grave? Been done, Al-jazeera's website had the articles.

Or how about Hamas and Hezbolah are both a lot more real world to the people on the street than the PLA and the UN recognized Lebanese government? They do that with newspapers, television stations, schools and hospitals- all of which use equipment made in or donated by Iran and Syria. They hand out bags of rice and beans to the poor, clearly marked as gifts from the people of Iran, and powdered milk, oil and canned meat similiarly marked as of Syrian origion. That is based on pictures taken by the UN, BTW.

How's this for giggles- Hezbollah personnel being trained by Syrian and Iranian military and intelligence forces. That goes back 15, 20 years, but those guys are now the equivelent of thier flag-rank officers and are thier political leadership. And that is based on declassified US, UK and French intelligence material (I try to avoid the Isreali intell, it's not always the most honest when it reaches Reuters and the BBC.)

Things to keep in mind-

Up until a few years ago, Syria basically ran southern Lebanon and military occuption troops there. Hezbollah and Syrian forces routinely made joint patrols, just the same way US/UK forces do with the locals in Afganistan and Iraq. It took Syria's assassination of Lebenese politicos to get them out, and I would strongly doubt that there was no staybehind assets. Oh, and there were Iranian military exchange observers with the Syrians off and on.

A couple months ago, Syria and Iran signed a formal mutual security pact. IE, you hit me, you hit my friend. They've had military and technology and cultural exchanges for years, thier citizens don't need visas to go between the two countries and they have a lot of mutual business intrests. This just puts everything in black and white. Thier realation is very much like the US-UK-Canada connections.

Hamas has at least as power in the PLA does in Palistinian territory (due to the last election, they are the offical government); Hezbollah has seats in the Lebenese parliment and cabinet. Hamas sent some of their civil admin crowd to study under Hezbollah prior to that political campaign.

The Hamas administration in the Palestinian territories asked for loans from both Syrian and Iran. The Hezbollah-run bank is gaurenteed by Iranian underwriting.

Iran and Syria both recognized the Hamas administration in the Palastian territories before the UN observers stopped counting the votes. The reason why Hezbollah's canidate for the Lebenese PM was tossed off the ticket is that foreign-sourced campaign money is illegal there when they catch it.

So....

Here's what I think happened. Hamas wanted to impress everyone, so they execute a snatch and grab. The Isrealis go nuts. Hamas start squirming and whining, so thier allies in Hezbollah do thier normal thing to draw some of the heat off Gaza. The Isrealis start pounding away, becuase to them, it's on, the 1980s all over again.

Syria and Iran have been waiting for a while to get the Isrealis riled up, you don't need to do anything more than read english-edition papers online from Beruit, Damascus, Amman and Islamabad to see that. I will not be suprised if Syria enters into the fray to "save the Lebenese people" and/or one of thier planes (they have to have upped thier air defense patrols) is engaged by an Isreali one after someone (everyone will blame the otherside) crossed the border. 15 years of rebuilding Lebenon, completely erased.

Iran jumps in as part of thier treaty obligations with thier great friends and allies. They'll have to airlift or sealift troops.

By sea, they put Egypt in an uncomfortable possition- if Cairo says yes, they torque off Isreal and most of NATO; if they say no to moving Iranian troops and equipment through the Suez, they torque off the entire arab world and thier streets will explode. By air, the Iranians can fly over Saudi, who we would lean on (for what little bit of bug poop that's worth; and they might say yes, just as a favor to thier sidekick, Pakistan, who's nuclear weapons program was funded with Saudi loans and they are paying it back by selling tech specs to all kinds of people including Iran and Syria), Iraq (we will say no) or Turkey (who wants nothing to do with this mess, check out thier news). Or they can take the long way and embarrass the Egyptians. And if by Egypt, either by sea or by air, the Isrealis will have to prove that the civilian registered vessels REALLY did have military personnel and materiel aboard, becuase that is how they will be moved. Ask anyone who watches the Middle-east, and they will bet dollars to donuts that that civilian marked transports (and government owned with military reserve roles, but operating with merchant flight and sea plans) will be used. And Isreali won't care, they will shoot and the devil with world opinon.

The really scary possibility is that if Isreali goes into Syria, they will hit Damascus, try for a C3I kill. Birds with big blue Magden Davids on them over Damascus will cause Iran to try to strike at Tel Aviv and Jeruselum and various other places, most likely with intermediate range ballistic missiles. Guess which countries have troops UNDER the arcs of those things when the launch with payloads of who knows what. If one has a convient "oops", and lands on a US military facility, they can just say it was a maintence accident and they will make reperations.

And guess how the Isreal lobby in Washington will react?

It gets very interesting when we also remember that Iran and Syria both provide moral and material aid, including warm bodies, to the mayhem in Iraq. So far, only people with civilian ID, or we'd be seeing a lot of screaming in DC, but if you've studied the situation and apply common sense, you'd be left with no other option to but to assume that, even if you didn't read Damascus newspapers and read between the lines. :P

Oh, wait, let's just finish playing seven degrees of seperation here. Who gave us the intell on the Iraq WMD programs. The Isrealis! And how did we confirm it? We asked the Brits, who asked the Isrealis! While I don't they were setting us up, I don't think they mind having a bigger boogieman than them on that part of the world. Much less a bigger boogieman who they can sweet talk/bully/make sad puppy faces at/arm twist into covering thier butts if the fire gets out of control. I'm not saying that we were intentionally set up, but which comedy duo had the line "what a fine mess you've gotten us into"?

I have nothing against the people, or the land, but I HATE, DESPISE, and LOATHE Middle-eastern politics. Growing up, I learned how to watch not only the Warsaw Pact and the PRC, but also this whole convaluted, backstabbing, double dealing mess.

HYDROGEN FUELCELLS ROCK!!!!!!!!!

EDIT: Wow, that was both more and less wordy than I thought.

AMEN!!!!!
The whole thing is powder keg just waiting to blow.

Just a brief response. I know a lot of Israelis. I think they are far better prepared to stay put then to bug out. Just about everyone I know has a dedicated, sealed safe-room in their house, with food, water, medical supplies, gas masks, chemical toilets, the works.

Their degree of preparation would be unheard of in the US or most other countries. In fact, I think it would freak most Americans out, but reality has a nasty way of interfering with ordinary life.

I second that one, Lance. It's a fanatical hate-filled region.

Don't forget which oil exporters gain as the price of a barrel climbs to $100. The Russians (who need lots of real cash), The Venezualans (Hugo needs lots of real cash to give to his new friend, Fidel) the Iranians (who wouldn't refuse the extra profits). All three would love to make money as the US pays through the nose and suffers. The Chinese also benefit from recent cut-rate oil deals.

It isn't hitting just the US. We whine and kibbitz about ourselves so much we don't bother to notice that we are peeing on the feet of our friends. You wonder why we are loosing friends globaly? Becuase the US, as a nation, is like dealing with a five year old; if we want to stay a superpower, we need to grow [censored] up and realise that other nations have the same situations we do.

If crude hits $100 per barrel, it's going to screw up Japan. While they might not use petrofuels as much as we do for electricity, they use a lot of petrochems industrially. Thier economy looks healthy, but that's like saying that someone is healthy just becuase thier inoperable brain tumor is in remission. Sure you feel fine, but there is still a ticking time bomb in your head. Taiwan and South Korea will be in the same straights, only more so becuase they don't have the nuclear power to fall back on.

A lot of Western Europe has nuclear plants to fall back on, but again, industrial uses. And they do use a lot of petrofuel. Unfortunately (sorry, friends, I've got to be blunt) since thier economies are declining on a global scale (population drop), I'm just not as up to speed on thier situation. I know that they use a lot of LNG, but that isn't beeing affected quite so much by shortage as it is general worry.

Now, for some corrections.

Chavez isn't sending money to Cuba, Castro has his own income from unknown (but speculated) assets and while Cuba's paying a slightly reduced price for crude, it isn't that significant a cut. Seriously, would you charge your parents full price? That money is getting publicly flipped over into funding the oil pipeline into Columbia, and privately into what I'll politely call "rainyday funds". Problem there is that two years ago, we got almost as much crude from Venezula as we did from Saudi. But since less of that oil is coming up, and what is coming up is going to Central and South America, I'll take the glass is half full view: Chavez is creating a strategic supply in this hemisphere, and we'll buy the oil that Venezula's new customers aren't from thier old suppliers.

(I'd cut Cuba out of most global conspiracy theories right now. Castro is sweating the succession issue too much right now to do anything overly sneaky, and the canidates to replace him are all smiling at eachother with daggers behind thier backs. That is going to a brawl in the dog pound when when he kicks it. All he's doing is standing up and smiling for the public as the guy who's still flipping off the US, and that makes him VERY popular with the man on the street south of the some point between Cidudad de Mexico and the Rio Grande. Even if he is a lot like a washed out rock star on the world stage, he's still got his fans. The only reason he bugs us is we let him.)

China pays as much as we do for oil- they buy it off the free market. And if someone thinks they like the idea of $100 per barrel, I'm sorry, but I think you've been in the sun too long. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Actually, the Chinese are pushing oil prices up up with increased consumption levels. Funny joke- as one of the designated developing countries under the Kyoto Accord that everyone whines about us not signing, the PRC has by treaty relaxed pollution controls, which just impresses the heck out of the Japanese, but it's already been signed.

Ditto the Indians, but they only annoy Bangledesh and Tailand, both countries that no one outside thier borders really care about. Unfortunately.

Anyone want to take a guess when the next major attempt at taking the Spratly field will be? I'm almost tempted to start a pool.

And Russia doesn't sell on the open market. Thier are closed bid contracts, and most of those were probably made under Yeltsin. Of course, that doesn't mean that they can't ask for donations to help protect the oil pipeline. I can begrudge them the technique, but in Putin's shoes, I'd probably use it to.

The little known secondary escape routes that you mention, -I'm afraid they can now be used by *Hezbollah*, -if Israel isn't now both Smart and Quick, -in Bottling them up!

(Relevance to Preparedness and Survival here, -their's or "our's", -concerns such Escape Routes. Who will get to them first?!).

(Also, -Notice a peice of Good News, -in that there is not a third front active in the West Bank. I think this could well be due to the Isreali Preparedness, -in the form of their Fence or Wall!). [color:"black"] [/color] [email]Simon[/email]

I think that this situation will only end with the extermination of one or both sides. Iran, Syria etc have only one desire. That is the utter extermination of Israel and every Israelie down to the most newborn baby. If every Arab nation decided to make common cause and accept the losses that such a war would incurr then Israel would face extinction. Faced with a second Holocaust, Israel would go nuclear and those bombs would be as dirty a possible. Consiquences to the rest of the planet can go hang. Bug Out plans? Only if you have an other planet to go to....