http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/06/20/nkorea.missile.reut/index.html
"The U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a Washington Times report that the Pentagon has activated its missile defense system, which has been in the developmental stage for years.

"It's good to be ready," the official said."

Range of the missle:
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/td-2.htm



The range is a guess.

I don't know if I'd call it ready. I'd say that the prototypes can be spun up and made operational PDQ, and with luck, they will work if needed. Given the track record for these tests, all I'm going to say is I'm awfully glad I don't live on the west coast. Sorry, guys.

Either that, or the DoD has been able to keep something superspiffy under a cloak of absolute secrecy for a while. I haven't even seen a crediable rumor about any ABM systems being online yet in Aviaiton Leak or any of the others. But, I've been suprised before. If I had to take a guess, it would be in the form of either an improved version of the ultra-high altitude version of the Standard that the Navy has been messing with off and on, something like the old ASAT tossed from an Eagle that is pulling race tracks over the Pacific Ocean, or maybe there is an unpublished airborne laser test bird that they've been able to get the bugs out of the tracking for. But those are just guesses

Thanks for the link to FAS, Martin. I like thier estimates a lot better than some of the others I've seen on the TD-2. They are cheerful, but FAS is also less prone to agrandising thier estimates than others. But it still means that ability to put a few hundred kilograms of chemical or biological agents someplace where they shouldn't be. Assuming it works.

Or maybe (if you like serious intrigue) the technology that the N Koreans got had some intentional holes in it.

Like the kind cuased by F-22's with RAM-coated AIM-120s that catch it during the initial boost phase? They might have a chance, but I'd much rather try to bribe someone to leave thier tool box inside the machine. Much more reliable than trying a trick shot. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Personally, if we have an ABL platform in the neighborhood, if we can blow it on the pad that might be the best option. Lasers don't leave much evidence. I know it's not supposed to be able to hit ground targets, but for some reason I think it can hit a stationary target.

I'm not sure I buy the theory that says they bought Chinese- the ChiComs are crazy, but not as crazy as the Kim family. Even if they did, odds are that anything the PRK bought from the PRC or from Russia is viable. Anything they bought from Pakistan, Syria, Iran or anyone else on the fringe is going to be as solid as can be implimented- the types of folks who sell this stuff know that if word gets out they screwed a customer, they are done. Maybe not dead, but at least broke. No one else really deals with them. The Vietnamese and Cubans both think Mr Kim is a loon, and he can't afford to buy from the French, South Africa, or Brazil. And the Lybians wouldn't deal with him right now, not while they are showing off thier sweetness and light make over.

What will get them is Mr. Kim's insanity. It's big, it's shiny, and it scares the US, he likes it. I'm perfectly willing to believe that this is being done becuase he's jealous that Iran is getting a lot of attention. The man shouldn't be trusted with a wiffle ball bat, much less a nation with chemical and biological (and MAYBE nuclear, but most likely radiological for now) weapons. He's probably pushed this thing into testing before it's ready. As much as the test makes me uncomfortable, I give it fifty-fifty odds of blowing before it reaches 50 thousand feet. The PRK's own internal issues are hard on the quality control.

Of course, last time one a missile test burned up prematurely, there was a rumor he had some of the design team executed with the rest watching, as a "motivational exercise". I think the best thing for east Asia would be for him to have a heart attack or a massive stroke.

IIRC we had a system with 20% hit ratio in a test several years ago.

That was with a standard, high explosive fragmentation warhead on what was little more than a souped up Patriot. The hypervelocity kinetics we played with back in the late 80s did better. *snorts*

The one I can't get much on is the big laser systems, either airborne or surface based. I know the THEL system is starting to be deployed, and that the prototypes had a really kick tail success rate. Heck, that's small enough that we might even be able to smuggle it into South Korea and no one would ever be the wiser. Lasers don't leave many fingerprints.

Strange that the THEL never got beyond the prototype stage. Even if it was a fixed installation, it would work for a lot of situations. (i.e. Israel's northern border)

As with all things military, it's fairly safe to assume that more advanced technology has been in place for probably 10 years before we hear about it. Disinformation is part and parcel with military campaigns. They didn't retire the SR71 without a viable option as it's replacement... Aurora? Who knows, but enough has leaked about a hydrogen fuel pulse engine that it seems entirely possible.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we had a functional shield that starts with sat based laser weapons for launch pad destruction, jet platforms for high altitude launch and reentry detonation with laser, and even missile to missle defense. Not to mention that there are now weapons that can fire an incredible rate of "ammunition" using railgun technology. They could just put up a monstrous spread of lethal highspeed shrapnel that could blanket a trajectory and keep firing until they track it properly and hit it.

Yeah, I think it's safe to assume that even if all of these systems are even 30-50% operational that combined they have a pretty strong chance of stopping it.

A highschool friend of mine was programming patriot guidance software to intercept scuds back in Desert Storm for Intergraph. That's been since back in the very early 90's. You couldn't convince me that 15 years of new technology and testing hasn't improved our chances. And I often wonder if some military tests are purposefully blown just to keep our strategic capability unkown.

If governments operate on the assumption of mutual destruction and one of them secretly can avoid that destruction, it changes how you do your bargaining. This administration's has been open about its willingness to use tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and to pursue development of new ones. Maybe that's not a coincidence.

I thought the Isrealis broke grown on a two emmiter facility back last fall,with plans to have one of the two online around the new year.

The Marines are very interested in it, they keep trying to get the Navy to consider a vessel with the system.

We'll just pray for the "golden BB" out here.

If not, it'll be one heckuva sunset. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

It isn't the sunset you should be worried about. In all likely hood, IF (and that is a bloody big if) the PRK has nukes at this point, they'll be big suckers, probably gun type, and almost certainly too big for this platform. Thier best bet would be to use a truck to deliver it.

I have no doubt the current Great Leader's father had a bio weapons program, and that it produced results, but I don't know if they could get the refridgerated RV design that the Russians developed to work, not with thier mass budget and tech level. If they did, then you'd be looking at an airburst of either a inhaled particulate, like anthrax or maybe botulism, or plague with live fleas (the Japanese made it work with artillery and gravity bombs during WWII). While scary, they are managable. An inhaled virus they could have in inventory, but I don't think they can get an RV to work that would keep it alive and be able to distribute it worth beans.

Most likely, if you got a suprise package from the malignant dwarf, it would be chemical. Something heavier than air, with a decent persistancy, pop the package at night and let the cloud sink into an urban area. Most likely a nerve agent, but maybe blister or blood. You'd have a little warning, but how do you evac a metropolitan area?

And honestly, as much as I hate to say it, I think the PRK is one of our bigger threats. I dont' think Mr. Kim is able to understand that if he drops this on the West coast, he could get to have a practical lesson in Einstianian physics. The only thing holding us back that I can think of would be that the Japanese would be in the fallout zone. A few years ago, someone compaired Mr Kim to the Joker from Batman- not the worst desciption, just more so. Even if all it was was sneezing powder (remember, this guy is past clinically insane, expect anything), the chaos would be worth it as a destab attack. He'd find it funny.

Of course, given the quantities they have on hand and the historical lack of reliability of thinks stamped "made in the PRK", I doubt that (a) the TD-2 is going to get very far, and (b) that the test will be with a live load.

HAHAHA... that was good for a laugh this morning. <img src="/images/graemlins/laugh.gif" alt="" />

I also share your skepticism on whether or not North Korea is going to be able to make this missile launch successful.

Then again, it only has to be successful once to have an effect. If so, that would be the last thing the "dwarf" manages to pull off. I wonder if he's crazy enough to risk the suicide of his country in exchange for fifteen minutes of fame? There wouldn't be much left, but he'd go down in the history books. Maybe even one-up his old man and be a bigger hero...

Yes, he is crazy enough. I've seen a number of psych evals from a variety of sources. Imagine a soap opera on acid, staring, produced and directed by a cross between Hitler, Nero and Micheal Jackson.

A couple of the evals spectulated that he believes he is immortal, and the rest were that he is of the opinion we don't have the will or means to actually take action against him. After all, we don't hold military parades in DC, NYC or LA, so by his logic, we don't really have the military we say we do. That we've never taken him or his father to task since the formal armistice shows that not only do we not have the means, we don't have the guts.

In either case, he was litterally raised to belive his father was a living god, and he was the son of that god. As such, his will defines reality, and as far as what he sees and heres, it does. He used to direct movies before his father kicked it, and everything that the official new media releases is scripted performances. Think the big parade at Disneyworld (he had a copy built), or the half time show at the Superbowl. There is some indications that he's under the impression that he's the only real person in the world, other than his father and his mother, and his father's second wife who is personal devil. Everyone else might be a figment of his imagination, or at the very least, under his control.

He likes people being afraid of him, that's how he gets his jollies, that and being the center of attention. That's why a lot of folks think the reason for the TD-2 test now is becuase he's being back burnered after Iraq, Iran and Afganistan. He also likes to think he is smarter than everyone else, that ties in with the PRK being a narcotics source. If the unenlightened westerners want to destroy themselves on his drugs, and they will pay him for the privilage, then it's two wonderful practical jokes for the price of one. That he's supposedly so brilliant is the reason his toadies play games at the negotiating table- they don't sneeze unless it is part of the script he signed off on, literally.

There is some indication that he likes to play at being a soldier. Skirmishes with airsoft and the like, usually with little kids on his side. He likes kids. Thing is, the games are rigged, so he thinks he really is the greatest warrior ever. Combine that with his sexual tastes and what is known to be in his movie collection, he most likely sees himself as the real-life Mister Bond. He's really big on escapism and denial of reality of all sorts. It wouldn't be going out on a limb to say he's schizophrenic.

You should read some of the stuff they tell the people about his childhood. Born on a sacred mountain, nursed by various animals to gain their wisdom and strength, bathed with rainbows.... The list goes on and on, it makes la Morte de Aurther look sober. The scary thing is, he probably belives it.

Yeah, he's nuts enough to start a war and think he'll survive. There was a rumor a while back that he died, either of natural causes or in a train wreck, back in 2004. I've got a small wager that he started that rumor, to make it look like he rose from the dead. Due to the fact that the state of affairs is only getting more and more out of touch with the rest of the world, I'm gonna stay he's still kicking.

Pity.