http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/06/20/nkorea.missile.reut/index.html
"The U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed a Washington Times report that the Pentagon has activated its missile defense system, which has been in the developmental stage for years.

"It's good to be ready," the official said."

Range of the missle:
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/td-2.htm



The range is a guess.

I don't know if I'd call it ready. I'd say that the prototypes can be spun up and made operational PDQ, and with luck, they will work if needed. Given the track record for these tests, all I'm going to say is I'm awfully glad I don't live on the west coast. Sorry, guys.

Either that, or the DoD has been able to keep something superspiffy under a cloak of absolute secrecy for a while. I haven't even seen a crediable rumor about any ABM systems being online yet in Aviaiton Leak or any of the others. But, I've been suprised before. If I had to take a guess, it would be in the form of either an improved version of the ultra-high altitude version of the Standard that the Navy has been messing with off and on, something like the old ASAT tossed from an Eagle that is pulling race tracks over the Pacific Ocean, or maybe there is an unpublished airborne laser test bird that they've been able to get the bugs out of the tracking for. But those are just guesses

Thanks for the link to FAS, Martin. I like thier estimates a lot better than some of the others I've seen on the TD-2. They are cheerful, but FAS is also less prone to agrandising thier estimates than others. But it still means that ability to put a few hundred kilograms of chemical or biological agents someplace where they shouldn't be. Assuming it works.

Or maybe (if you like serious intrigue) the technology that the N Koreans got had some intentional holes in it.

Like the kind cuased by F-22's with RAM-coated AIM-120s that catch it during the initial boost phase? They might have a chance, but I'd much rather try to bribe someone to leave thier tool box inside the machine. Much more reliable than trying a trick shot. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Personally, if we have an ABL platform in the neighborhood, if we can blow it on the pad that might be the best option. Lasers don't leave much evidence. I know it's not supposed to be able to hit ground targets, but for some reason I think it can hit a stationary target.

I'm not sure I buy the theory that says they bought Chinese- the ChiComs are crazy, but not as crazy as the Kim family. Even if they did, odds are that anything the PRK bought from the PRC or from Russia is viable. Anything they bought from Pakistan, Syria, Iran or anyone else on the fringe is going to be as solid as can be implimented- the types of folks who sell this stuff know that if word gets out they screwed a customer, they are done. Maybe not dead, but at least broke. No one else really deals with them. The Vietnamese and Cubans both think Mr Kim is a loon, and he can't afford to buy from the French, South Africa, or Brazil. And the Lybians wouldn't deal with him right now, not while they are showing off thier sweetness and light make over.

What will get them is Mr. Kim's insanity. It's big, it's shiny, and it scares the US, he likes it. I'm perfectly willing to believe that this is being done becuase he's jealous that Iran is getting a lot of attention. The man shouldn't be trusted with a wiffle ball bat, much less a nation with chemical and biological (and MAYBE nuclear, but most likely radiological for now) weapons. He's probably pushed this thing into testing before it's ready. As much as the test makes me uncomfortable, I give it fifty-fifty odds of blowing before it reaches 50 thousand feet. The PRK's own internal issues are hard on the quality control.

Of course, last time one a missile test burned up prematurely, there was a rumor he had some of the design team executed with the rest watching, as a "motivational exercise". I think the best thing for east Asia would be for him to have a heart attack or a massive stroke.

IIRC we had a system with 20% hit ratio in a test several years ago.

That was with a standard, high explosive fragmentation warhead on what was little more than a souped up Patriot. The hypervelocity kinetics we played with back in the late 80s did better. *snorts*

The one I can't get much on is the big laser systems, either airborne or surface based. I know the THEL system is starting to be deployed, and that the prototypes had a really kick tail success rate. Heck, that's small enough that we might even be able to smuggle it into South Korea and no one would ever be the wiser. Lasers don't leave many fingerprints.

Strange that the THEL never got beyond the prototype stage. Even if it was a fixed installation, it would work for a lot of situations. (i.e. Israel's northern border)

As with all things military, it's fairly safe to assume that more advanced technology has been in place for probably 10 years before we hear about it. Disinformation is part and parcel with military campaigns. They didn't retire the SR71 without a viable option as it's replacement... Aurora? Who knows, but enough has leaked about a hydrogen fuel pulse engine that it seems entirely possible.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we had a functional shield that starts with sat based laser weapons for launch pad destruction, jet platforms for high altitude launch and reentry detonation with laser, and even missile to missle defense. Not to mention that there are now weapons that can fire an incredible rate of "ammunition" using railgun technology. They could just put up a monstrous spread of lethal highspeed shrapnel that could blanket a trajectory and keep firing until they track it properly and hit it.

Yeah, I think it's safe to assume that even if all of these systems are even 30-50% operational that combined they have a pretty strong chance of stopping it.

A highschool friend of mine was programming patriot guidance software to intercept scuds back in Desert Storm for Intergraph. That's been since back in the very early 90's. You couldn't convince me that 15 years of new technology and testing hasn't improved our chances. And I often wonder if some military tests are purposefully blown just to keep our strategic capability unkown.

If governments operate on the assumption of mutual destruction and one of them secretly can avoid that destruction, it changes how you do your bargaining. This administration's has been open about its willingness to use tactical and strategic nuclear weapons and to pursue development of new ones. Maybe that's not a coincidence.

I thought the Isrealis broke grown on a two emmiter facility back last fall,with plans to have one of the two online around the new year.

The Marines are very interested in it, they keep trying to get the Navy to consider a vessel with the system.

We'll just pray for the "golden BB" out here.

If not, it'll be one heckuva sunset. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />