When I was thumbing through the SAS Survival Manual, I was interested in the section about how to predict the weather where you are for the next several hours. I noticed today that my oldest daughter thought it was going to rain today because it was overcast (it didn't btw).

How important do you think basic sky watching/weather prediction is as a survival skill? Making fire and shelter building yes, but how often do people work on their sky watching skills?

What do you think?

I can't tell which way the wind is blowing, don't care.
If I stick my hand out, I can tell if it's raining & I'm always sure the weather is going to clear up soon.
I don't even listen to weather reports, I just wait for the rumor mill to churn out dire predictions. In the summer, it's warm, winter is cold, spring is wet. Fall is all 3.Period.

Needless to say, I wouldn't last long in Tornado Alley, or a boat, or...
Some people have a knack for certain things, weather isn't one of them for me. Expect the best, but prepare for the worst, that's how I've lasted this long.

Most urbanites won't. That's what the TV weatherman is for (who I think just regurgatates the NOAA forcasts). Plus, it's kinda hard to read the sky with all those buildings in the way. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> At least here in Florida, once our "rainy season" starts, you don't need to look at the sky, just look at your watch. They will start everyday at the same time (+/- 5 minutes). It's kinda cool.

My personally, I notice the "Red sky in morning, sailor take warning" and the "Red sky at night, sailors delight". But, that's only because my dad taught me that saying.

It is a useful skill. Weather predicting is not as important as fire making, signalling or shealter building, but if your proficent in these skills why not expand your knowledge and skills.

Once again, it seems I didn't fully explain my thought, which is a habit I need to break! I'm a big fan of weather.com and my NOAA All Hazards radio, and trust those to help me plan day to day. My thought on learning what the weather may do over the next several hours is in situations where one may be hiking in the backcountry and something happens to extend the trip unexpectedly. I would assume that any ETSer would have checked weather forecasts for the expected duration of their trip, but I'm thinking of accident or injury that may make the trip longer than expected.

I'm wondering if people who spend time away from urban areas practice these kinds of skills.

As an aside, I learned recently that our local weather people on the news re-report NOAA information...the NOAA radio we have started talking, and then about two minutes later, the people on the news said the same thing.

As a military Air Traffic Controller, we were trained in local area forcasting. I find it a very useful skill.

We travel a lot so we are always in some place where we do not know the local weather "habits". My local forcasting skills have frequently helped us stay safe when we might otherwise have experienced an unplesant situation.

I have a barometer in the camper and watch the pressure changes. Rate of change is important. I also watch cloud types, humidity, wind direction and force,

There are natural indicators for almost everything (but pressure). For instance watching tree leaves will indicate moisture level. Many tree leaves become more flexible with humidity. Well before it is noticible by "feel".

The wind direction is very important. Knowing this will help you locate the high or low pressure areas which, of course, control weather.

I don't know if there is a formal course available on the internet for this sort of knowledge. It is a skill that I have been practicing for many years and not only does it help me forcast the weather, it keeps me in closer contact with nature. For me, that is just as important as the weather forcast.

nomad

I've tried and tried to learn, at least 4 times in my life, to know what every cloud formation, barometric pressure, and wind directions mean for weather change. I just get it wrong every time....hopeless! I've gotten good at hiding from lightining strikes, though.

I do actually get a long range forecast before going camping, but I refuse to be a slave to the weather. If I believed every forecast, I'd never go anywhere.
The forecasts are about useless anyway, the weather in the mountains has it's own agenda.

I learned about this years ago on a Montana mountain elk hunt. Having ridden for days in every weather but a cyclone I finally asked my grizzled old mountain-man guide "what do you think the weather will be tomorrow?"

His reply: "Boy, if I could tell the weather, don't you think I'd get me a town job telling folks the weather... instead of wrangling dudes around IN the weather?" "Instead of pondering about what the weather WILL do, just pack for anything it COULD do!"

You know.... he looked like I imagine Cris Kavanaugh might look like.

Confusus say: "Path of wisdom is checking local weather forecast". Otherwise your giving Mother Nature a great way to Darwin your ass.

When I was a kid, my folks, my little brother, and I took a formal Coast Guard sailing class that included a section on weather prediction through analysis of cloud formation. It may have been the most handy classtime I have ever had. It made quite an impression on a 12-year old. Since then I have used that knowledge countless times to avoid--or more likely ride out--foul weather. Take the class--it is worth it.

Ors,

I've learned to watch the weather closely since moving to Texas. The thunderstorms here and in the rest of Tornado alley are simply amazing. I didn't believe the hailstone reports until actually witnessing what grapefruit sized-hail can do to a house.

I usually watch the sky to see if the cumulus clouds start building up in the afternoon. Plus, I'm addicted to the weather channel and our local cable "radar station".

I'm not trying to replace the NOAA forecasts with my own. I just view it as part of situational awareness. Besides, it gives me another excuse to read books and BUY MORE COOL GEAR <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

- Brian

Past couple of months I've been spending a lot of time travelling in my car...one day a week, but I'm driving for about 10 hours. I've got a Weather Channel app. on my cell phone, so if the sky looks questionable, I can check the current radar and forecast.

If you're addicted to that sort of thing, you may want to check into something like that <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

The value of weather prediction may be in aiding the decision of whether to press on or go to ground.

I read the clouds more than I build fires, I'm sorry to say. <img src="/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" /> The weather forcast is a great way to start, but it has a habit of changing on you.

I'd put it on par with using a map and compass, in terms of importance. You might not die if you don't know it, but if you need to self extract, it's going to be really useful to know.

Although, working outside in the summer, I usually leave my watch inside and get time on the sun. I'm within 15 minutes most of the time, plus or minus.

How does one learn how to do that?

COMET Program - Anticipating Hazardous Weather and Community Risk

A course that gives you an overview of weather forcastng. Doesn't appear to tell how to directly forcast, but how to read NOAA forecasts. This is applicable for FEMA Independent Study Course IS-271.

Ors,

Good suggestion! I'll look into it.

Because I'm a teacher, I usually have the internet available at school and TV/Internet at home during breaks. This would give me an opportunity to keep up to date even if the power goes out.

I'd like to know too. My older brother hasn't worn a watch in years, but he can tell you the time (without having seen a clock all day) within 5 minutes about 90% of the time and within 15 minutes almost all the rest of the time. I haven't seen him go +- more than 15 minutes in years. It's simply uncanny. I guess I got the "direction finding" gene and he got the time thing. I still like mine better, but his is a neat party trick. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I thought I already posted a reply to this, but since it isn't here... *shrugs* getting senile.....

It takes practice. In high school, during the summer, I either worked on farms or for my dad when he owned a house painting business. In either of those, wearing a watch obviously is a bad idea. So, I got to a point where I could say what time it was without digging out my watch.

Keep in mind, that is +/- 15 minute accuracy. That's a 30 minute window.

Realistically, here is what you NEED to know: if the sun is less than three hand widths above the horizon, you need to be thinking about making camp, becuase you don't have a lot of light left. Other than that, eat when you are hungry, drink when you are thirsty, take a tenner and change socks at highest sun, and let the sun wake you up in the morning if the cold didn't kill you first.

I don't know if this has ever occurred to anyone or not. But it has occurred to me.

What it is,- I find it useful to divide the entire sky above you, -right down to the horizon, -into 5ths. For a quick visualization and evaluation standpoint. In my experience, -a fifth of the sky, -is all that the human eyes can comfortably take in at a time.

What they are,- Directly ahead of you, Directly behind you, Directly to your left, Directly to your right, and Directly above you, -centering on the sky's general zenith or midpoint.Irregardless of what 0 to 360 degree starting point as you may have.

You can quickly take in and evaluate each fifth, put it all together in your mind, and know that you havn't missed any of the sky, -in such survey. [color:"black"] [/color] [email]Ors[/email]

This is but one of many important and useful "satellite" skills and fields of knowledge, -revolving about our usual centerpieces. I'm speaking of Survival Gardening, Basic Soils Science, Climbing, Fishing, Firearms, Household and Workplace Safety, Edible and Poisonous Plants -and Many, many, many, others....!

The Thought's just occurred to me. -How bout if we get another thread going, -where everyone pitches in with such great "Satellite Fields" of their own! I'm sure the bunch of us can over time think of plenty more comprehensive listing than I can readily think of on my own. (Maybe something can even be learned from Dave Blaine and his antics! <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />). Either I'll soon start this thread in the Campfire, -or I'll leave it to the first one of you. Either way don't matter to me!

Key Point and Gist here,- These satellite fields often considerably approach in importance, -those of our typical, usual, centerpieces. Some are more, some are less, -important and useful than others. (Some are Keyholes and some are Vanguards. Or Oscars! <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Satellites, -Get it?). I know that some of these surrounding Fields of Knowledge are often neccessarily something of side matters to us, (that is when they even come up on our radar screen at all!), -but endeavour somewhat to get "Bitten by the Bug" on some of them! The way a weather dude may center on weather, -or a gardener on the wide world of plants, horticulture, or gardening! Such is the Relevance, Place, and Importance of it all! [color:"black"] [/color] [email]romania[/email]