Michael Leavitt, US/Human service..Offical Advises Stocking up on Provisions...warning.....Bird Flu.."ready or not here is comes"...

According to ABC over the weekend..it is coming...OK so what now...

1) in order to prepare what are the basic needs for a family to honestly be aware or...and "why powdered milk" ?
2) what type of mask...
3) besides a bible...what else is needed...?

Dry milk is useless without water to reconstitute it. <img src="/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" />

Tuna? What's wrong with good old MREs?

1) No idea why they chose powered milk and tuna. I think canned goods, bottled water, MREs, etc. would be fine.

2) Mask? I'm more worried about the health care workers needing masks, not the general population. Are folks really gonna wear masks all day and night? Doubt it. You'd do better to wash your hands regularly, not shake hands, and carry around some hand sanitizer.

3) Plan and prepare as for any emergency or disaster.

I didn't hear the story and I don't watch much news. My guess is that with some of the recent cases the government now sees that the flu is on the move. They are slowly but surely letting us know that cases are bound to turn up here in the U.S. eventually.

I think they're hoping to avoid a mass panic once it reaches our shores. I'm sure there will be a mass panic anyways. <img src="/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />

Tuna-gate. Government kick-back scheme. It's always something.

The dry milk is interesting. One, kids need milk, and people rarely stock it in their gear. Two, eggs are counted as dairy, so if they feel they have to pull eggs out of stores, the milk next to it might be on the destroy list to.

Just theories. I've got some other ones, but I'll keep them to myself.

Awwww!!! Come on! <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" />

According to the CDC's latest information, H5N1 has now been tracked from human to human in a few "rare" cases, but in those cases it hasn't spread farther than the one extra person.

The ones I'm keeping to myself are mostly having to do with personal opinions that I'll keep to myself in the name of civil order.

Do we know vector?

Wow. Those opinions must be radioactive. <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

I think you got the News Reporter sound bite version:

Check out:
http://www.pandemicflu.gov/planguide/checklist.html

According to the Department of Health and Human Services you should store "Ready-to-eat canned meats, fruits, vegetables, and soups". Their check list looks a lot like what you should have on hand for any type of emergency.

What type of Mask?

CDC says health care workers should:

"Use a fit-tested respirator, at least as protective as a National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-approved N-95 filtering facepiece (i.e., disposable) respirator, when entering the room. " (room occupied by patient suspected of being infected)

In the article I read on CDC's website no vector was mentioned prior to the one of human to human contact.

So they don't know the transmition human-to-human? Great.

If it is very rare, that rules out an aresol, as a rule.

I do not think it likely to have viral cross contamination of milk containers from egg stocks. However, if large numbers of chicken must be killed, then a cheap source of protein from both chicken meat and eggs will be scarce, which would likely cause a run on fresh milk. Having both powdered milk and tuna, which both store well and provide protein will become the main source of protein for many individuals.

Just my 2 cents-

Pete

Along those lines, MSN has a fascinating graphic that shows how scientists expect migratory flyways to bring the bird flu here (the picture is about half-way down the page).

As for dry milk, I think it's a lot more palatable with some Nestle's Quik.

This are just my observations - your opinions and mileage may vary:

1. From 2002 to date, there have been something around 200 confirmed human cases of bird (H5N1) flu worlwide and something less than 100 fatalities.

2. The H5N1 influenza strain was isolated in geese in Scotland in the 1950's and other places around the world, including the U.S. since then.

3. On average, about 20,000 people die annually in the U.S. from the (non-avain) flu.

4. Most of the human victims seem to have been in "intimate contact" with infected birds - that is raising free-ranging birds around (and sometimes in) the home.

5. Western "factory" poltury farms try to do as much as they can to prevent contact between their livestock and wild birds and take other precautions (washing shoes and wearing "clean suite") toi prevent the introduction of infectious deases within their flocks.

6. In short, I believe we have less to worry about the H5N1 virus than we do the guy in the car next to us on the express way.


Stay safe,

JimJr.

Amen.

Here's a link to the leading causes of death from the CDC (2002 stats):

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/lcod.htm

Roger that. I used to point things like that out, but since people keep talking about "brid flu, oh no"...

Never let facts ruin a good (hyped) news story. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Dave

true, we are in much more danger on the daily commute to work. the real impact of the bird flu will be in prices, if poultry is destroyed on a massive scale, we won't be eating chicken strips for a while, the cost would be prohibitive.

It is also true that at some point this strain may mutate into a human-human virus. It has appearantly done so on a limited scale. If it changes vectors into an airborne pathogen at this point, then things change. 1918 may look like a small disturbance when you consider that the population scale is quite a bit different today and that the most populous nations have terrible records of sanitation, disposal, and informed/schooled people.

Of course there's the hype. Of course the main stream media wants us to feal the fear, and perpetuate PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER.'s mass panic. None of this changes the fact that this (or something very like it) is far overdue. Given global travel and already narrowly missed containment breaches (ever read The Hot Zone ?) the odds of this happening are exponentially higher than they have been in the past century.

Okay, that being said, your observations are great... you present the facts clearly and without prejudice. And I agree that there's nothing to really panic about. But I will say this... all the talk about the bird flu actually got me coming to this site and thinking about being prepared for civil disorder in general. So the combination of hype over Katrina and the Bird Flu may lead some more people here and that can't be a bad thing.

Even my brother who's notoriously underwhelmed by such hyperbole has begun to think about stocking up when his power was cut off and winter heating oil issues came up.

Stay educated about the disease. Take precaution by avoiding contact with birds, wash your hands before preparing food, eating or touching face, after shaking hands, opening public doors, etc. Stay away from droppings, feathers, etc.!?!

Most of the human deaths were in people who dealt with the infected birds, and most of the infected birds were in high-density groups, like factory farms.

The flyway thing doesn't seem to be "flying". The scientists expected the bird flu to migrate along the flyways, and it really hasn't. There have been some wild birds found with it, but not all that many, considering. Also, I read where there hadn't been a single case of this particular type of flu found in any domestic, true free-ranged flock (as opposed to pseudo-free-range high-density situations), even when they were near infected flocks.

They are also suspecting that many people have gotten mild cases of this flu, but they are only testing the serious ones and the dead victims for it, which would tend to throw the calculations way off.

Prepare, but don't panic.

Sue

Interesting .....that the gov't is coming out with a 50% possible death rate if the "flue" hits our country.... sounds like "BIG TIME CYA" ... type statement if I ever heard one!

That's based on the reports from doctors- no one knows how many people suffer from cough, fatigue, headache, fever and malaise and don't bother to talk to a doctor.

That helpful bit isn't from me. That's from my mother, the medical librarian. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I agree.

I'm much more worried about the drunk drivers in my area than bird flu or al-Qaida (for that matter).

I've actually been thinking of buying a case of MREs to supplement the canned goods and water I've stored so far . . . have you ever done business with these guys?

I buy mine from Long Life Foods
Nice variety. Costs are pretty high initially. I buy a case every 3 months. In 2 years you'll have quite a bit of food.