Interesting points raised. Long post following......



yes, (potential) lethality from avian influenza infection will probably be from secondary bacterial infection and our immune systems going into overdrive - ARDS (adult respiratory distress syndrome). No effective way to stop it, prevent it or treat it effectively. Just supportive treatment i.e. ventilate. Of course the crunch comes when the number of patients overwhelms the resources available, as envisioned in most pandemic scenarios.......what then? Hopefully, the measures in place to stop transmission would be effective in curbing the spread.... QUARANTINE and ISOLATION would be the KEY.



Very true. Most medical systems will be overwhelmed. Care will have to be delegated to the primary care centres (your family physician / GP). The secondary centres (hospitals etc) will be stretched to the limit. Again, focus would be on isolation and reduction of transmission. If the virus spreads unchecked, we're screwed.
Medications available (tamiflu/relenza) IMHO are marginally effective and are what I consider 'better than nothing'. I won't be betting my money on them being of much help.
Vaccines are a long way off yet.Maybe 2-4 years...?



I would stay at home and hunker down. My reasons are as follows:
*hygeine - personal hygiene would be of paramount importance. Proper sanitation, running water, baths all go a long way in reduction of transmission risk. Proper handwashing etc. You are not likely to get those luxuries 'in the bush'

* proper nutrition and rest are vital for your immune system to fight off any infection. In the home environment where there are little variations in ambient temperature, it would be best to stay warm and comfortable and not be subject to the variations of the temperature in the bush.

Resting in their own beds would do a world of good to ensure proper rest and allow your immune system to function best.

* food and water - I would stock up on these at home and ensure a supply for 3-4 weeks at least. I doubt if you would be able to lug that much food and water into the bush. Will you be relying on living off the land? The nutrition of you and your family may suffer if that were the case. Again, not too good for the immune system.

* You hit the nail on the head when you mentioned isolation from people. You can remain isolated from people in your own home for ages if you wish. People leave the home for various reasons - buy items, work, visit people, leisure etc. In a pandemic situation, most jobs may be on hold, and I assume if you are going to 'bush' it, you will not be turning up for work. So if you stock up on essential supplies i.e. food / water/ batteries / hardware for repairs / bulbs / medications / cash etc you can stay isolated from the rest of the population for weeks.

* information - at home you will have more resources with which to get information on the progression or resolultion of the problem. TV, radio, internet, this website <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />. The most you would have in the bush would be a radio, cell phone etc.

* Medical care - IF you are out in the bush and if you do get sick, being nursed at home with stockpiled medcition would be a better option than being sick in the bush with limited meds....

Sorry for the long post, but when it comes down to it, my family will be isolated at home with stuff stockpiled at the ready. I will transport sufficient amounts of medication from my clinic back home and hope for the best. I will be called to the front line to help deal with this situation, praying that my N95 mask and personal protective equipment holds out. I will be isolated from the rest of my family so that I wouldn't run the risk of spreading any potential infection to them and basically be hoping for the best.....
You prepare and you take your chances.....
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