You need a bugout PLAN to go with the pack. What is the plan and how far does it involve carrying the pack? If you only have to get it out to the car, 49 lb doesn't sound too bad. If you plan to carry it any distance, I'd say it's a bit much unless you're very strong. Anyway there is a simple test. Just put it on, go outside, and walk with it for 1/2 an hour or so. If you can't manage that, the pack is too heavy.