Just finished reading this report by Dr. Sherry Cooper who is the:
Global Economic Strategist - Harris Bank
Chief Economist - BMO Nesbitt Burns
Chief Economist - Harris Nesbitt

Dr. Cooper is one of Canada's most respected economists. Her 28 page report gives the best overview of a global pandemic I have yet seen. I'm currently doing pandemic planning for my largest client so I've read a lot of different reports on the subject. This research is as good as it gets.

It's a good solid read, well worth the time. Here's the link:

http://www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20051011/dont_fear_fear.pdf

Thanks. The "Investors Beware" section was especially interesting.

Nicely done report. Thanks for sharing it with us. For something written by an economist, I'm pleased to say that she got the medical aspects correct. There's some "worst-case-scenario" slant at times to the piece, which may frighten some, but that's appropriate when trying communicate the kind of situation that we (and business) may face in the next pandemic outbreak and the kinds of planning and preparations that need to be made. A worthwhile and quality read.

One of the last tables compares the US, Canada, and the UK and their levels of preparedness. Not surprisingly, the US doesn't look so rosy, and we're the only country that doesn't even have a plan in place already--we only have a draft. I fear we may face another tragic and embarassing, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job!" while-thousands-suffer-at-the-NO-Convention-Center-on-CNN type of situations some day. Let's hope that we get our act together before then.

She doesn't paint a pretty picture, does she?

I can't wait to see what our country's "plan" might be. Would I sound cynical in the extreme if I suspect it might be stupid, ineffective, incredibly expensive and involve soldiers who don't really know what they're supposed to be doing?

With all the assets that this country has, why do we buy vaccines from other countries? What-- it isn't profitable enough?

Wouldn't it be kind of funny (in an unamusing way) if our wonderful Homeland Security has spent a ton of money to "protect" us from terrorists, only to have millions die from flu? Our dear government... always shoveling money against the tide of common sense. <img src="/images/graemlins/frown.gif" alt="" />

Sue

There is no guarantee that Tamiflu or any of the other anti-viral remedies will be effective against a mutated H5N1 virurs. As a matter of fact, there is evidence extracted from the young 14YO Vietnamese girl who was treated with Tamiflu that some of the little viral critters had mutated to become resistant to Tamiflu. At this early stage, when so little is really known, I kind of like the fact that the Federal Government isn't rushing to dump billions of money that we don't have into a possible waste of time and money.

I think someone missed reading the news last week.

From the article lead:

"The Senate approved $8 billion in new spending on bird flu preparedness Thursday. Lawmakers said the money will fund a White House readiness plan that is expected to be announced soon.

Most of the money is targeted to large new government buys of a still-experimental bird flu vaccine and stockpiles of antiviral medications including Tamiflu. More than $1 billion was also earmarked for enhanced disease surveillance capabilities and public health preparedness."

So, about $7 billion for Tamiflu and an experimental vaccine (either of which may turn out to be money well spent after all), and only $1 billion for general public health measures that will help no matter what eventually hits us. Oh, and I wonder if this $8 billion replaces or is in ADDITION to the $3.9 billion that the Senate approved just a couple weeks ago. In that bill, 3 out of the 3.9 billion was earmarked fro Tamiflu purchases.

My wallet is feeling lighter by the second...

Only 8 Billion? No wonder I missed it. That's chump change for the Feds! Who wants to bet that all those doses will sit there and rot?
Who wants to research and find out which individuals have heavily invested in Roche stock over the last year or so?