A home invasion is extremely unlikely, but would be a disaster of epic proportions. A leak in the cellar is more likely, but it probably wouldn’t kill anybody. Thus, I plan more extensively for the one and less for the other.
Out of curiosity, which one would you plan more for? The home invasion or the leak in the cellar? Personally, if I could plan for only one, I'd plan for the more likely scenario; however, my DH would probably plan for the more severe scenario.
I'm really attached to my creature comforts, and to me being prepared is more about staying comfortable in the more likely, but less severe scenarios, versus, staying alive in very unlikely scenarios. DH is of the opposite mind so we are probably prepared in either case. Fortunately, most of the things that I deem important for comfort, DH agrees will also be good to have in a major emergency.