It's a little early to say for sure. Luxeons and similiar LED technology are less than 10 years old. It'd be like comparing a light bulb from 1889 with those available today. The comparison stops there, though, since LEDs are advancing much more quickly than the light bulb, for several reasons.

From your post, it would seem the only advantage incandescents have over LEDs are color rendition and throw. In most every other area (durability, lifetime, etc) LEDs already beat the pants off hot wires, and are catching up fast in the color / distance area.

The next 10 years are going to be fun. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />