#48834 - 09/13/05 01:26 PM
5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Pooh-Bah
Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2203
Loc: Bucks County PA
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I've distilled my assumptions about emergency preparedness and discovered 5 specific assumptions that were totally wrong. Assumption:I have enough water, or I can purify water I find. I needed to DOUBLE my stored drinking water supply, and with this doubling came the fact that I needed to totally re-think my storage methods and transportation methods, given that my wife can't life much more than 20 lbs due to a medical condition. Purifying water is - at best - a chancy proposition. The Delaware rive was just contaminated in our area with 50,000 gallons of exceedingly toxic heavy metal waste. This is a Bad Thing because it will affect groundwater for years to come. Assumption: I can find a safe shelter for my family. For a while, I had removed the tent from our "go" kit as I thought it was a little silly. I mean, there's shelters all over in an emergency, right? The tent as well as blankets are back in the kit. This is bulky and a pain to carry, but I see it as ncessary. Assumption: The Feds Have The Resources Needed to Stabilize the SituationNo they don't. 'Nuf said. Assumption: I can hunt for food as neededUm...no, no I can't. Sure, I can drop a deer and cut it up. Then I have to cook it, cure it, store it and more. While occasional hunting might work, the reality is that unless I've set up a base of operations for a month or so, hunting food in the quantity needed to feed a family is not going to happen during the transitional period. [b]Assumption: I don't need a firearm for anything but hunting. Yeah, yeah, I know "forbidden topic" on this forum and all, but I think this image says it all for me: Now, I think something smaller and easier to manage is a better idea, however, the idea is valid. Especially after seeing what went down in New Orleans. Especially. My biggest assumption was that, like in the floods we had here, that we'd see a huge community turnout to solve problems and help one another. Maybe in my little rural area this is so, but if NYC or Philly needs to empty out, I think my silly assumptions will be off.
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#48835 - 09/13/05 03:24 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Member
Registered: 05/03/05
Posts: 133
Loc: Central Mississippi
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You might want to add this one:
Assumption: I can wait until the government orders an evacuation.
In the case of hurricanes, no you can't. Neither the <insert colorful adjective here> mayor of New Orleans nor the <insert similarly colorful adjective here> governor of Louisiana ordered an evacuation until after noon on Saturday (that despite the most dire warnings from the National Hurricane Center anyone can recall). Even with all major highway lanes turned outbound, I-10 was still bumper-to-bumper at 5 AM Monday morning. If you have made the decision to evacuate (in advance, I hope), don't hesitate.
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#48836 - 09/13/05 04:02 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Enthusiast
Registered: 02/27/05
Posts: 232
Loc: Wild Wonderful WV
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When I lived just north of New Orleans I don’t remember waiting for the Government to tell us to leave. We knew the dangers in our area, kept up on what was going on and left when we saw it was needed. If we had waited for "them" we would probably still be waiting. You have to take care of yourself and your family because "they" will not. After the fact there will be help available but only to those who survived what ever catastrophe hit you. The most important thing is to know your area and what dangers are there.
_________________________
When the wolf attacks he will find that some who run with the flock are not sheep!
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#48837 - 09/13/05 04:23 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Old Hand
Registered: 04/05/05
Posts: 715
Loc: Phoenix, AZ
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Welcome to the real word where humanoid predators (not a racist reference) must be defended against. Get a Glock, a CCW, and some training. Keep pepper spray and a SureFire with you 24/7.
_________________________
Thermo-regulate, hydrate and communicate.
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#48838 - 09/13/05 05:43 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Enthusiast
Registered: 06/01/05
Posts: 375
Loc: Ohio
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I agree with your assumptions, what kind of tent did you remove from your kit? I have one of those basic emergency tube tents.
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#48839 - 09/13/05 05:57 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Enthusiast
Registered: 12/27/04
Posts: 318
Loc: Monterey CA
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When I think of fire arms a pistol is always the most threatening even when it is holstered. A rifle is ok but a shot gun to me is the least and most intimidating. I like the shot gun because it is big so the police can tell very well if you are aiming it or just carrying it. A shot gun in one hand or over the shoulder says “I am not threatened by you and intern you should not feel treated buy me.” A shot gun pointed at you says... well you get the point. I also now have my tent as part on my BOB.
_________________________
Hmmm... I think it is time for a bigger hammer.
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#48840 - 09/13/05 06:34 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
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I agree with your thinking, except the water. I'd more than double your stored amounts. Some in the truck, some in the basement, some at remote locations, and even a bottle or two in your desk drawer at work.
what is the current reccomended amount per person, per day?
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#48841 - 09/13/05 07:33 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Enthusiast
Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 329
Loc: Michigan
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I agree. My mantra used to be "fire fire fire" (I hate being cold and live in the snowy north) - Now it's "water water water".
_________________________
"2+2=4 is not life, but the beginning of death." Dostoyevsky
Bona Na Croin
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#48842 - 09/13/05 08:16 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Old Hand
Registered: 09/12/05
Posts: 817
Loc: MA
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No matter how much you plan and practice, the sceanrio you encounter will be different. Planning and practicing is still necessary. As Arnold Palmer said about golf, "it's all luck, but the more I practice, the luckier I am".
_________________________
It's not that life is so short, it's that you're dead for so long.
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#48843 - 09/13/05 11:32 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Member
Registered: 09/22/02
Posts: 181
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I agree, Marty, you can never have too much water, but I can also see problems with storing it, especially with the idea of taking it with you. Right now, I have two full 55 gallon drums of purified water on hand, since I was planning on 'bugging in' if the need hits. The problem is 'bugging out.' At the time, I was thinking mainly of a big snowstorm, which we've gotten in the past, and 'what if' we get stuck here (in the house). If there's a forced evac, the barrels are staying. I got the barrels because they were cheap (actually, free) and allowed me to store the largest amount of water as quickly as possible. I know smaller containers would be easier to move (and do plan on getting a few), but right now my only car is a small 4-door sedan which will probably be loaded with people (and clothing) if and when we have to go. I am looking into buying a full-size van, thinking both of its storage capability and also being able to sleep in it (if need be). I'd like to store at least two 15-gallon water containers in it, but I have to worry about them freezing during winter (fill them only 80%??). My 'grab-and-run kit' sits on the top of a second fridge I keep in the basement (It'll probably get moved to the van). In it are some extra clothes, a pair of old boots, hats, gloves, blankets, toothpaste, soap, etc. and my old camping tent (sleeps 5). I keep a pretty well-stocked shelf of nonperishable food right next to the fridge. I just have to grab a few cans and run. I've got two of those heavy canvas bags on the shelf for just that - just fill'um and run. As for guns, I keep a Ruger 10-22 in my grab bag. It's got one of those big nylon cable ties threaded through the open action. You'll have to cut it to get a mag seated and a round chambered. Everything else is locked in a gun safe and, hopefully, will stay there. Again, though I was planning on just 'riding the storm out', the other day my neighbors (Husband, wife, daughter (10), and son (7)) and I go for a walk down on a trail near where we live, an old canal towpath, one that parallels a large railroad yard. As we're walking, we talked about how the canal system used to work and how the railroad took over for them. I'm pointing out different railroad cars to the boy, saying that's a boxcar, that ones a flat car, that ones a tank car, etc. Anyway, he asks me what the tank cars hold. I look and say "Well, that ones got propane in it, that ones propane too, that ones chlorine..." - and I stop, thinking <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> "Boy, this could be 'messy!!'" In this case, 'bugging in' wouldn't be a very good idea. One other thing to think about - my cousin Jeff went through hurricane Andrew back when he lived in the Virgin Islands. He and his wife chose to ride it out. After it was over, he drove out to check on his business, only to get THREE flat tires in the few blocks between his house and his business. So now I'm also looking into run-flat tires for the van. I've already checked some prices and was surprised to find most tire manufacturers make them and they're not that much more expensive than a regular tire. Cool!! - Dave
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#48844 - 09/14/05 12:23 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/09/01
Posts: 3824
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Any vehicle's carrying capacity is vastly improved with a roofrack. My first 240 Volvo wagon had one, it's successor did not. I was griefstricken at the loss until I scrounged another unit. You toss a tarp over the load and have an additional shelter component. Any post disaster area is going to be a nightmare for wheeled vehicles. Acquire a wheelbarrow body, seatbelt webbing and some cordage. You can drag and manhandle a decent load with this rig.
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#48845 - 09/14/05 05:35 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 02/09/01
Posts: 3824
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I deleted posts that addresed the political fingerpointing. ETS is to promote people being prepared. It is not to promote or demote either Michael Moore or George W. The quoted letter contained more hot air and debri missiles than Katrina and violated forum standards. It should have been quoted in the campfire with a disclaimer and caveat as to the language and content. Nothing personal people, I'm just doing my ( hopefully) impartial katydyn ceramic filter gig.
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#48846 - 09/14/05 01:34 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Old Hand
Registered: 09/19/03
Posts: 736
Loc: Montréal, Québec, Canada
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"Water water everywhere... not a drop to drink" lamented the Ancient Mariner.
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#48847 - 09/14/05 03:26 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Addict
Registered: 08/14/05
Posts: 601
Loc: FL, USA
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I looked into the tires awhile ago...some problems with them is that they were designed for a heavy suspension....not just a beefed up suspension but one that is designed for it. When I wanted to put them on my minivan they said not to bother. The ride would be horrendous and the van is not designed for them so handling and safety would be affected. Since they were more expensive tires than the ones I needed (and they were pretty expensive to begin with) and since the guy was trying to talk me OUT of them I figured it was good advice to avoid them. Only my .02 c worth...check them out first.
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#48848 - 09/14/05 03:44 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Carpal Tunnel
Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2997
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I looked into those once (funny we had made the mistake of owning a minivan also at the time) and there was one place in the whole city that could install them and you had to have the pressure monitor also since you couldn't tell if they were flat any other way.
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#48850 - 09/14/05 08:12 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Old Hand
Registered: 11/02/03
Posts: 740
Loc: Florida
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Yeah, they have to say that. I know for a fact you can tell when run flats have a puncture without a sensor. Because I have run flats, and the $150 sensors are gone from three of the tires due to one inexperienced droid at the place I got my last set. Crushed the sensors removing the tires. The car starts to pull toward the side with the flat tire. Once you feel that, just get a guage and check. Easy.
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#48851 - 09/15/05 12:25 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Addict
Registered: 12/06/01
Posts: 601
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Instead of buying run flats why not use slime. http://www.slime.com/Here is the required warning, WARNING: For high speed application (over 65 mph) use only as a repair - may cause excessive vibration when installed in front tires - to ensure safety, have treated tire inspected by qualified tire professional as soon as possible after puncture occurs. Slime will not seal sidewall punctures and should not be used with faulty valves or damaged rims. I haven't used this in a car or truck tire, but i have used it for many other applications and it works great.
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#48852 - 09/15/05 03:10 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I could not agree less. While it is all very well and good for us to sit here and day, sure, I understand that all that weight on the roof raises my COG, and effects my handling characteristics, it doen't effect the fact that you can lay over your average SUV in a 35 MPH emergency lane changes manuever if you put 400# on the roof. Too much, you say?
Rack: 100#; spare tire 55#, 20g cas in cans: 150#, HiLift jack: 35#; chains, shovel, axe, come-along etc? ?#?.
Also, re. tires: I put 10 ply Michelins on one of my Range Rovers. Dumbest thing I ever did. Raised it by 1" -- good. Handled like a brick, and rode like a tank -- not good. When I took them off 30,000 miles later, they had tread seperations in 3 of the 4.
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#48854 - 09/15/05 09:01 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Addict
Registered: 02/18/04
Posts: 499
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I've been interested for a while in these flexible water tanks: http://www.aquaflex.net I was thinking of putting one under my bed at home. It might even be a good candidate for a roof rack.
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#48855 - 09/15/05 12:10 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Enthusiast
Registered: 04/07/03
Posts: 214
Loc: Northeast Arkansas (Central Ar...
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Fix-a-flat will eat the inside of the tire and it also will cause an explosion if there are sparks or fire near while tire is being repaired. most shops won't work on a tire that has had fixaflat in it
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#48856 - 09/15/05 01:05 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions and run flat tires
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Member
Registered: 02/12/03
Posts: 128
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Cool! How do you like them? I was looking into them but at the time they were more expensive then my ford escort.
Do they ride like normal tires? How have you found the tread wear and what type did you purchase.
-Nim
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#48858 - 09/15/05 04:13 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I've been interested for a while in these flexible water tanks: http://www.aquaflex.net ...It might even be a good candidate for a roof rack Water tanks come in many shapes and sizes. Collapsible models offer great flexibility and can be stored in many nooks & crannies where space would otherwise be wasted. But they are very difficult to move/carry when full or partially filled. I’ve been looking for tanks I could fit inside a vehicles wheel wells, talk about wasted storage space. I did find these that offer an interesting option for many vehicle types: CleanCraft
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#48859 - 10/20/05 03:41 PM
Re: 5 Assumptions ...(Vehicle Flexible Water Tank)
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Found this interesting bit of kit to store water in you vehicle without using up any valuable storage space. here: Flexi-Tank Other interesting containers
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#48860 - 10/21/05 12:34 AM
Re: 5 Assumptions ...(Vehicle Flexible Water Tank)
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Newbie
Registered: 03/13/03
Posts: 35
Loc: Connecticut
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In response to Randjack - why would you put all the heavy stuff on the roof rack? It would be a great place for clothes/tents/sleeping bags,/etc... - put the heavy stuff in the trunk or cargo area (w/ the exception of the gas - I'd get a rear rack of some sort if I was planning on carrrying any). Quite often storage in a vehicle isn't about weight, but about bulk.
Also - 100lb for a roof rack? Many of the Thule & Yakima cargo racks weigh much less than 50 lbs. I'd do some more research.
Heck, even a simple waterproof roof cargo bag would work for hauling extra supplies - just plan your load better, and adjust your driving habits accordingly.
Sam
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