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#48834 - 09/13/05 01:26 PM 5 Assumptions that were wrong
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2203
Loc: Bucks County PA
I've distilled my assumptions about emergency preparedness and discovered 5 specific assumptions that were totally wrong.

Assumption:I have enough water, or I can purify water I find.
I needed to DOUBLE my stored drinking water supply, and with this doubling came the fact that I needed to totally re-think my storage methods and transportation methods, given that my wife can't life much more than 20 lbs due to a medical condition. Purifying water is - at best - a chancy proposition. The Delaware rive was just contaminated in our area with 50,000 gallons of exceedingly toxic heavy metal waste. This is a Bad Thing because it will affect groundwater for years to come.

Assumption: I can find a safe shelter for my family.
For a while, I had removed the tent from our "go" kit as I thought it was a little silly. I mean, there's shelters all over in an emergency, right? The tent as well as blankets are back in the kit. This is bulky and a pain to carry, but I see it as ncessary.

Assumption: The Feds Have The Resources Needed to Stabilize the Situation
No they don't. 'Nuf said.

Assumption: I can hunt for food as needed
Um...no, no I can't. Sure, I can drop a deer and cut it up. Then I have to cook it, cure it, store it and more. While occasional hunting might work, the reality is that unless I've set up a base of operations for a month or so, hunting food in the quantity needed to feed a family is not going to happen during the transitional period.

[b]Assumption: I don't need a firearm for anything but hunting.
Yeah, yeah, I know "forbidden topic" on this forum and all, but I think this image says it all for me:

Now, I think something smaller and easier to manage is a better idea, however, the idea is valid. Especially after seeing what went down in New Orleans. Especially. My biggest assumption was that, like in the floods we had here, that we'd see a huge community turnout to solve problems and help one another. Maybe in my little rural area this is so, but if NYC or Philly needs to empty out, I think my silly assumptions will be off.



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#48835 - 09/13/05 03:24 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
JimJr Offline
Member

Registered: 05/03/05
Posts: 133
Loc: Central Mississippi
You might want to add this one:

Assumption: I can wait until the government orders an evacuation.

In the case of hurricanes, no you can't. Neither the <insert colorful adjective here> mayor of New Orleans nor the <insert similarly colorful adjective here> governor of Louisiana ordered an evacuation until after noon on Saturday (that despite the most dire warnings from the National Hurricane Center anyone can recall). Even with all major highway lanes turned outbound, I-10 was still bumper-to-bumper at 5 AM Monday morning. If you have made the decision to evacuate (in advance, I hope), don't hesitate.

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#48836 - 09/13/05 04:02 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
SheepDog Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 02/27/05
Posts: 232
Loc: Wild Wonderful WV
When I lived just north of New Orleans I don’t remember waiting for the Government to tell us to leave. We knew the dangers in our area, kept up on what was going on and left when we saw it was needed. If we had waited for "them" we would probably still be waiting. You have to take care of yourself and your family because "they" will not. After the fact there will be help available but only to those who survived what ever catastrophe hit you.
The most important thing is to know your area and what dangers are there.
_________________________
When the wolf attacks he will find that some who run with the flock are not sheep!

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#48837 - 09/13/05 04:23 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
Craig_phx Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 04/05/05
Posts: 715
Loc: Phoenix, AZ
Welcome to the real word where humanoid predators (not a racist reference) must be defended against. Get a Glock, a CCW, and some training. Keep pepper spray and a SureFire with you 24/7.
_________________________
Thermo-regulate, hydrate and communicate.

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#48838 - 09/13/05 05:43 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
7k7k99 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 06/01/05
Posts: 375
Loc: Ohio
I agree with your assumptions, what kind of tent did you remove from your kit? I have one of those basic emergency tube tents.

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#48839 - 09/13/05 05:57 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
lazermonkey Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 12/27/04
Posts: 318
Loc: Monterey CA
When I think of fire arms a pistol is always the most threatening even when it is holstered. A rifle is ok but a shot gun to me is the least and most intimidating. I like the shot gun because it is big so the police can tell very well if you are aiming it or just carrying it. A shot gun in one hand or over the shoulder says “I am not threatened by you and intern you should not feel treated buy me.” A shot gun pointed at you says... well you get the point.
I also now have my tent as part on my BOB.
_________________________
Hmmm... I think it is time for a bigger hammer.

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#48840 - 09/13/05 06:34 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
TeacherRO Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2574
I agree with your thinking, except the water. I'd more than double your stored amounts. Some in the truck, some in the basement, some at remote locations, and even a bottle or two in your desk drawer at work.

what is the current reccomended amount per person, per day?

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#48841 - 09/13/05 07:33 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
wolf Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 12/01/04
Posts: 329
Loc: Michigan
I agree. My mantra used to be "fire fire fire" (I hate being cold and live in the snowy north) - Now it's "water water water".
_________________________
"2+2=4 is not life, but the beginning of death." Dostoyevsky

Bona Na Croin

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#48842 - 09/13/05 08:16 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
Malpaso Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 09/12/05
Posts: 817
Loc: MA
No matter how much you plan and practice, the sceanrio you encounter will be different. Planning and practicing is still necessary. As Arnold Palmer said about golf, "it's all luck, but the more I practice, the luckier I am".
_________________________
It's not that life is so short, it's that you're dead for so long.

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#48843 - 09/13/05 11:32 PM Re: 5 Assumptions that were wrong
snoman Offline
Member

Registered: 09/22/02
Posts: 181
I agree, Marty, you can never have too much water, but I can also see problems with storing it, especially with the idea of taking it with you. Right now, I have two full 55 gallon drums of purified water on hand, since I was planning on 'bugging in' if the need hits. The problem is 'bugging out.'
At the time, I was thinking mainly of a big snowstorm, which we've gotten in the past, and 'what if' we get stuck here (in the house). If there's a forced evac, the barrels are staying. I got the barrels because they were cheap (actually, free) and allowed me to store the largest amount of water as quickly as possible. I know smaller containers would be easier to move (and do plan on getting a few), but right now my only car is a small 4-door sedan which will probably be loaded with people (and clothing) if and when we have to go. I am looking into buying a full-size van, thinking both of its storage capability and also being able to sleep in it (if need be). I'd like to store at least two 15-gallon water containers in it, but I have to worry about them freezing during winter (fill them only 80%??).
My 'grab-and-run kit' sits on the top of a second fridge I keep in the basement (It'll probably get moved to the van). In it are some extra clothes, a pair of old boots, hats, gloves, blankets, toothpaste, soap, etc. and my old camping tent (sleeps 5).
I keep a pretty well-stocked shelf of nonperishable food right next to the fridge. I just have to grab a few cans and run. I've got two of those heavy canvas bags on the shelf for just that - just fill'um and run.
As for guns, I keep a Ruger 10-22 in my grab bag. It's got one of those big nylon cable ties threaded through the open action. You'll have to cut it to get a mag seated and a round chambered. Everything else is locked in a gun safe and, hopefully, will stay there.
Again, though I was planning on just 'riding the storm out', the other day my neighbors (Husband, wife, daughter (10), and son (7)) and I go for a walk down on a trail near where we live, an old canal towpath, one that parallels a large railroad yard. As we're walking, we talked about how the canal system used to work and how the railroad took over for them. I'm pointing out different railroad cars to the boy, saying that's a boxcar, that ones a flat car, that ones a tank car, etc. Anyway, he asks me what the tank cars hold. I look and say "Well, that ones got propane in it, that ones propane too, that ones chlorine..." - and I stop, thinking <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> "Boy, this could be 'messy!!'" In this case, 'bugging in' wouldn't be a very good idea.
One other thing to think about - my cousin Jeff went through hurricane Andrew back when he lived in the Virgin Islands. He and his wife chose to ride it out. After it was over, he drove out to check on his business, only to get THREE flat tires in the few blocks between his house and his business. So now I'm also looking into run-flat tires for the van. I've already checked some prices and was surprised to find most tire manufacturers make them and they're not that much more expensive than a regular tire. Cool!! - Dave

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