I don't know what the statiscal chances are, if any study has been done...

A friend of mine was in the Air Gabon plane which crashed near the shore last year. He was seated in the front half of the plane ; he survived, with a bunch of others.
But all the people seated in the tail half of the plane died, drowned. (AFAIK)

I guess it depends of the circumstances of the crash (ground/sea, fire/no fire, etc...).

(I'm no expert. The only time I ever crashed when flying, was a 3m drop with my powered hang glider, just before landing ....)