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#39971 - 04/26/05 08:38 PM Re: A future without oil
bountyhunter Offline


Registered: 11/14/03
Posts: 1224
Loc: Milwaukee, WI USA
To paraphrase a statement from "Jurassic Park"; nature will find a way!

If nature does not institute a pandemic to kill large masses of human beings, the new "hunter/gatherer" will be hunting each other.

If that scenerio comes to pass, watch out for and neutralize Brian for the best chance of survival in Texas.

Bountyhunter

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#39972 - 04/27/05 01:14 PM Re: A future without oil
Anonymous
Unregistered


35 years ago a population of 3 billion was considered unsupportable. We were all supposed to be dead or starving by the late '80s. Read the '70s book "The Population Bomb" by Erhlichman(sp?) for a good idea of some of the laughable hysterics surrounding global overpopulation.

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#39973 - 04/27/05 06:15 PM Re: A future without oil
Chris Kavanaugh Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/09/01
Posts: 3824
By "goofing off" I refer to any number of cultural worldviews literaly paved over by this pandemic hubris of humanity that we can keep re arranging the planet like an old glass 5 gallon water bottle terrerium with infinite outside resources. My grandmother once observed a indian sitting under a brush shelter. From her Missourian, fundamentalist Christian western work ethic he was 'Goofing off.' A close indian friend of mine gave me a wink. The indian in the brush shelter was performing a very important ceremony to help restore balance in the community after a violent shooting in the local, white owned bar. That act of goofing off was no less valuable than Pope Benedicts XV1s first mass. As to our being the most successful species? I woke up to ants carting off a PJ sandwich I assembled half asleep last night <img src="/images/graemlins/blush.gif" alt="" /> They look a whole lot like the ants in a piece of jurrassic amber sitting on my bookshelf. <img src="/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />


Edited by Chris Kavanaugh (04/27/05 06:16 PM)

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#39974 - 04/28/05 01:00 AM Re: A future without oil
NealO Offline
new member

Registered: 11/18/02
Posts: 34
Loc: SF Bay Area, California
The Plains Indians rearranged the ecosystem to be dependent upon fire by their use of that technology to hunt bison.

I do not argue that everything man does today is good. Obviously much is not. However, I believe that technological innovation will be the foundation of any system capable of supporting anything near the numbers of humans we presently have.

Even "The Project" (Rainbow VI, Tom Clancy) utilized technology to "improve" conditions on the planet! <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" />

/Neal

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#39975 - 04/28/05 02:34 AM Re: A future without oil
Anonymous
Unregistered


hydrogen and nuclear are the best answers, but thier obvious issues of supply and what to do with the left overs make them less that feasible.

What I don't hear people talking about is the power of corn. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Distill the corn into ethenol. It has only about 2/3s the potential energy of gas, but it is renuable. The first Fords were ethanol powered, and I've seen cars modded to use it that are fairly recent.

For heavies, bio diesel. It is vegitable oil (say, corn oil) mixed with some ethenol or methanol, and lye. Lye can be leached from a lot of things, including the ash from burned corn stems and cobs.

Doesn't do much for air travel, but that is pretty waistful. Just a thought....

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#39976 - 04/29/05 01:20 AM Re: A future without oil
NealO Offline
new member

Registered: 11/18/02
Posts: 34
Loc: SF Bay Area, California
The volume of nuclear waste is very much less than the waste from fossil fuel generation of electricity. Most of that goes up the stack, forming greenhouse gasses. And in the case of coal in particular, releases a bunch of radioactivity.

With the notable exception of Chernobol, the only real nuclear-waste messes and serious nasties are related to weapons production.

Ethenol has a long way to go before it's cost effective. You just have to grow too much corn for the energy recovered.

Bio diesel is more interesting. I believe part of the future energy mix will involve growing crops specialized for their oil production. Should work as bio diesel. And for air transport - gas turbine engines will work well on almost any liquid fuel.

/Neal

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#39977 - 04/30/05 12:34 AM Re: A future without oil
Anonymous
Unregistered


No arguement on the nuclear- I'm an engineer, I like thier safety record, it is as good or better than commercial avaition's. It is just a matter of when they break, people have a knee jerk reaction. That makes them politically... complicated.

*Silently preys for more money for fusion research*

As for ethanol, I agree. But a (m)ethanol-based mix with other, higher octane hydrocarbons will extend what we have.

Oh, and commercial deisel is something like 15% biodeisel by regualtion, at least around here. And you can use it to cut home heating #2, of course, which is a lot of the usage of that general weight of distillate.

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#39978 - 04/30/05 11:03 PM Re: A future without oil
frenchy Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/18/02
Posts: 1320
Loc: France
Quote:
It is just a matter of when they break, people have a knee jerk reaction. That makes them politically... complicated


You think it's just a knee jerk reaction ?????????

When they break, it's rather a matter (or a risk..) of hundred or thousand of people dying, rapidly or slowly ...
And when they don't break, we "just" have to worry about the wastes, which will be active a loooong time after we are dead anyway .. let's our children cope with that .... <img src="/images/graemlins/crazy.gif" alt="" />
_________________________
Alain

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#39979 - 05/01/05 06:05 AM Re: A future without oil
NealO Offline
new member

Registered: 11/18/02
Posts: 34
Loc: SF Bay Area, California
I don't mean to be preaching about nuclear power, but....

I believe that one important aspect of survival, individually, as well as as a society or species, is to understand the risks.

Buring coal to generate electricity causes an estimated 24,000 deaths yearly in the USA.
a reference


This does not take into account other hazards involved in mining, transporting the coal to the power plant, or the dangers of boiler explosions. Nor does it account for the long-term effects of the release of millions of tons of radioactive ash and greenhouse gasses.

In contrast, commercial nuclear power has killed about 42. There may be an estimated 600 cases of thyroid cancer, not all of which will be fatal. another reference

It is "human nature" to worry about things that are new or less understood than "older" hazards. But just like commercial flight is in many respects safer than driving, nuclear power has numerous benefits over burning fossil fuels. The risks are different, but the benefits deserve serious attention.

/Neal

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#39980 - 05/01/05 09:28 AM Re: A future without oil
frenchy Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/18/02
Posts: 1320
Loc: France
[beginning of rant mode]

I didn't meant to preach about nuclear power risks (and I don't want to deny non-nuclear power plant impact on public health), but....

But it's rather "funny" you "accept" as an argument an estimation about coal burning consequences and take into account only immediate & direct deaths due to nuclear power industry...

Quote:
In contrast, commercial nuclear power has killed about 42

All statistics can and are generally manipulated.
ie pro nuclears when they want to demonstrate the danger of, say, coal, include in the deaths toll every death in that industry, including the guy who was killed in a car crash while on the job in the mining company !
OTOH, concerning death in nuclear industry, they only enter into account, people who obviously died from direct exposure, during "incidents" that can't be hidden.

42 dead people only : that's a laugh !!!!! any kind of human activity, any industry, has a higher death toll thru out the world....

If you want references, you should look for some and you will find others : ie this one this one, about Chernobyl's facts too .
just a quote :
A common misconception is that only about 31 people died as a result of the Chernobyl disaster......
Approximately 134 power station workers were exposed to extremely high doses of radiation directly after the accident. About 31 of these people died within 3 months. Another 25,000 "liquidators" - the soldiers and firefighters who were involved in clean up operations - have died since the disaster of diseases such as lung cancer, leukemia, and cardiovascular disease.......
... millions of people will continue to be exposed to such doses of radiation for decades to come.


I just want to point out :

- it's true nuclear power plant have some huge advantages compared to coal power plants ;
- OTOH , it's technicaly easy to make coal power plant much much safer ; I'll admit it may be not so easy in a full liberal economic system...

- it's true nuclear power plants have the best security mesures (in the western world at least) in industry
- OTOH because of the specail risks involved, it's both a necessity and not enough to insure there NEVER will be any accident (and I don't even want to speak about terrorism possibilities...) : IMHO a 0.001% risk in nuclear industry is worse than a 10% risk in classic fuel industry.

- it's true nuclear power plants give enormous amount of energy, (up-to-now the only one..) compatible with our western (and especially USAern (??) <img src="/images/graemlins/confused.gif" alt="" />...) way of life.
- OTOH , it may be interesting to calculate the real amount of energy created by nuclear INDUSTRY (take the output of power plants and deduced the amount of energy used for :
- extracting ore
- refining uranium
- building those power plants
- destroying them after their - short : mostly 20 max 30 years - lifetime
- eliminating (how ??), reducing and stocking the wastes
- etc...)
Then may be the real final energy output would not be so huge ......
(and yes, you're right, it sure should be done for ANY power industry...)

- it's true other methods for producing energy (ie renewable energy) are not really producing much energy up-to-now....
- OTOH , invest as much money in those methods as there has been in nuclear industry (and don't forget to take military money into account : the main reason the first civil power plants have been build was to mower the cost of military fissile materials) and soon they will have better results.

- it's true renewable energy won't ever give such enormous amount of centralised energy ;
- OTOH decentralizing energy production might be a good thing ...

- it's true a whole site of windmills might not be a pretty sight ..
- OTOH , even if noisy and disturbing in the landscape, IMO it's so much less than any nuclear (or coal..)power plant with its refrigeration towers and its high tension power lines,

- aso ....


Like Chris said in an other post, may be we should look not always for more energy, but we should wonder about our life style.
I'm no extremist in either way, and I'm sure humanity could find mid-way between Cro-Magnon way-of-life and New-Yorkers (just an example... no offense intended to New-Yorkers specifically <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />).
and when I say midway, I have to admit I would rather it be closer to new-yorker's one... <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />.

Because I'm also sure that if every earth inhabitant want to have the same "confort" level as any New-York (or even Paris ...) citizen, that won't be possible, even with nuclear power plant.
You want an example ? Look at the present consequences of China economic boom : they need more steel to build their infrastructures .... buy any economics newspaper and read about steel price...
That's just the beginning ....

[end of rant mode]


P.S. :
let me add a few facts.
In France :
- most of our electricity comes from nuclear power plants ....
- some people, calling themselves environmentalists, refuse windmills due to aesthetical considerations ....
- right after Chernobyl's disaster, the french government had the "courage" (ooopss... I was about to use another word... and I remember Chris warning ... <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> )
to declare that the radioactive clouds had stopped at our frontiers and kindly moved along, on the other side ; thus french people had nothing to fear, no risk involved .... <img src="/images/graemlins/mad.gif" alt="" />
_________________________
Alain

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