Well this does not make me feel good:


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=st...ooming_pandemic

Between a quarter and a third of the world's population will fall ill, according to new World Health Organization (news - web sites) estimates, and one per cent of the sick will die.

Do the math and the numbers defy credulity; between 16 million and 21 million people would die in a matter of mere months. In Canada, 80,000 to 106,000 people would be expected to succumb.

Armed with that math, think of the consequences. Panic. Crippled health-care systems. Economic disruption on a global scale. Grounded airlines. Distribution networks that will grind to a halt. Social instability.

Or, "three years of a given hell," as a leading U.S. epidemiologist, Michael Osterholm, puts it: "I can't think of any other risk, terrorism or Mother Nature included, that could potentially pose any greater risk to society than this."

Given the size of the problem, I'm not sure how I'd deal with it. Most of us can't stay in the house for 3 years.

Any guesses as to what America would be like 6 months into something like this? I think we need to know that before we can do any serious planning.

The article mentions the 1918 Influenza pandemic. If you aren't familiar with it (I wasn't) it's worth a few minutes spent reading about it. Scary stuff.

You won't have to stay in the house for 3 years. 3 months, maybe 6, then they'll have the vaccine in widespread production. Flu vaccine is easy, but predicting which ones to make isn't. Once there is a pandemic going, then they'll know which one to make, and with a lot of people dying the production rate will be high.

According to this, it's not easy (takes an extra step to adapt the various flu strains to grow in chicken eggs) or quick (ordering the eggs has a several month lead time).

Witness the current shortage. If it was easy to make, it would be easy to replace.

Containment seems like a more effective option, but it'll have implications for travel and shipping and....

OK, so maybe a year then. But that article also said techniques using animal or human cells could be done quicker, and scaled up a lot faster as well. So if they get off the stick, it could be a lot better.

Here is something else to think about.
The 1918 flu caused pulmonary edema (fluid in the lungs), that would require treatment with diuretics, and probably mechanical ventilation.
There are a tiny number of ICU beds relative to the population, and they stay full now, with no pandemic/epidemic.
There are a finite number of ventilators available, and people to use them.
Get sick really early, or really late in the game. The resources to take care of you are going to be stretched really thin during the worst of the outbreak.
Healthcare workers (me included) will probably be affected in higher numbers, due to exposure early on, before the problem is identified.
That, in a nutshell, is why I always get my flu shot.

Okay,
So what would our Immediate Action (AI) drills be? Get away from towns and cities? Live in the countryside for a couple of months? Stay eating healthy ?

As I am turning 20 this May it is particular concern to me, if the threat is to be taken seriously.

AFAIK, the flu shot presently available is more designed for the most probable known virus, not for the next one, still unknown...

Quid ????????????????

Reinhardt_Woets:

You should start by quit kissing pretty women. Advise them to seek older (Preferably Wisconsin Italian born ones.) men who have had a chance to build more immunity to some illnesses.

Try to send the ones that have high paying jobs, as maintaining "concern" for multiple women with low paying jobs tends to tire a man and weaken the immune system. <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

No need to thank me as you 20 year olds have to be kept healthy long enough for me to die on social security or with an extremely evil grin on my face. <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

Bountyhunter <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

I can't tell you how great this is making me feel, since I've been sick as a dog the past few days with something of the sort.

Now, not only am I sick, but I may be responsible for wiping out a big chunk of the population as well. Great....