Well this does not make me feel good:


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=st...ooming_pandemic

Between a quarter and a third of the world's population will fall ill, according to new World Health Organization (news - web sites) estimates, and one per cent of the sick will die.

Do the math and the numbers defy credulity; between 16 million and 21 million people would die in a matter of mere months. In Canada, 80,000 to 106,000 people would be expected to succumb.

Armed with that math, think of the consequences. Panic. Crippled health-care systems. Economic disruption on a global scale. Grounded airlines. Distribution networks that will grind to a halt. Social instability.

Or, "three years of a given hell," as a leading U.S. epidemiologist, Michael Osterholm, puts it: "I can't think of any other risk, terrorism or Mother Nature included, that could potentially pose any greater risk to society than this."

Given the size of the problem, I'm not sure how I'd deal with it. Most of us can't stay in the house for 3 years.

Any guesses as to what America would be like 6 months into something like this? I think we need to know that before we can do any serious planning.

The article mentions the 1918 Influenza pandemic. If you aren't familiar with it (I wasn't) it's worth a few minutes spent reading about it. Scary stuff.

You won't have to stay in the house for 3 years. 3 months, maybe 6, then they'll have the vaccine in widespread production. Flu vaccine is easy, but predicting which ones to make isn't. Once there is a pandemic going, then they'll know which one to make, and with a lot of people dying the production rate will be high.

According to this, it's not easy (takes an extra step to adapt the various flu strains to grow in chicken eggs) or quick (ordering the eggs has a several month lead time).

Witness the current shortage. If it was easy to make, it would be easy to replace.

Containment seems like a more effective option, but it'll have implications for travel and shipping and....

OK, so maybe a year then. But that article also said techniques using animal or human cells could be done quicker, and scaled up a lot faster as well. So if they get off the stick, it could be a lot better.

Here is something else to think about.
The 1918 flu caused pulmonary edema (fluid in the lungs), that would require treatment with diuretics, and probably mechanical ventilation.
There are a tiny number of ICU beds relative to the population, and they stay full now, with no pandemic/epidemic.
There are a finite number of ventilators available, and people to use them.
Get sick really early, or really late in the game. The resources to take care of you are going to be stretched really thin during the worst of the outbreak.
Healthcare workers (me included) will probably be affected in higher numbers, due to exposure early on, before the problem is identified.
That, in a nutshell, is why I always get my flu shot.

Okay,
So what would our Immediate Action (AI) drills be? Get away from towns and cities? Live in the countryside for a couple of months? Stay eating healthy ?

As I am turning 20 this May it is particular concern to me, if the threat is to be taken seriously.

AFAIK, the flu shot presently available is more designed for the most probable known virus, not for the next one, still unknown...

Quid ????????????????

Reinhardt_Woets:

You should start by quit kissing pretty women. Advise them to seek older (Preferably Wisconsin Italian born ones.) men who have had a chance to build more immunity to some illnesses.

Try to send the ones that have high paying jobs, as maintaining "concern" for multiple women with low paying jobs tends to tire a man and weaken the immune system. <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

No need to thank me as you 20 year olds have to be kept healthy long enough for me to die on social security or with an extremely evil grin on my face. <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

Bountyhunter <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

I can't tell you how great this is making me feel, since I've been sick as a dog the past few days with something of the sort.

Now, not only am I sick, but I may be responsible for wiping out a big chunk of the population as well. Great....

Mr Dead:

Go to your worst enemies, put on a huge facade of contritain and humility while begging their forgiveness for the way you have treated them and then give them a big, long, wet kiss on the mouth while crying on the outside.

If death then visits upon you, you can die peacefully and with a satisfied evil grin on your death mask. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/smirk.gif" alt="" /> <img src="/images/graemlins/cool.gif" alt="" />

Bountyhunter <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

Gee, I thought I was invited to your house for Thanksgiving???

Reinhardt, I wish that I had more useful suggestions.
Washing your hands frequently is the easiest way to prevent the spread of most germs/viruses,
eating healthy and getting plenty of rest to keep your immune system at its peak should help.
I don't see the vaccine being made quickly enough to help a lot of people at first, as noted in previous posts.

Washing hands frequently is probably the best advice next to getting lots of rest and eating properly. Unless of course you want to wear latex gloves everywhere, but then it's REALLY hard to get dates I imagine. <img src="/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

Joe,
Thanks for the advice. My parents live in the schottish countryside. If push comes to shove then I will use them as a "save" house.

Latex has many uses, you know...

In many Asian countries, people regularly wear face masks and avoid touching each other as much as possible to be polite, and keep disease down. If you are sick, wear a mask and if you are afraid of getting something, wear a mask.

I have seen, but not used, those traveler's air purifiers. I read in the propoganda that goes along with them that they kill bacteria and virii. Perhaps carrying one of those would help.

DO NOT overdose on vitamin C or echinasia(sic). If you take too much C, in any form, you run the risk of creating mineral deposits in your kidneys(kidney stones) or gout. Echinasia works to kick up your immune system, but after about 2 weeks your body gets used to it and ignores it. Use only in major doses for three(3) to five(5) days at a time and let it wash out of your system for about a week before using any more.

Remember, folks, 1% is nothing - percentage wise, the Black Plague generally took 1 in 4 people in the countryside and 1 in 3 in the cities each year between 1347 to 1351, such as Venice where the population went from almost 1 million to less than 200,000 in a year and a half. Many of those were not directly from the plague but rather from starvation and exposure to cold when the winter came without enough lower class people to scavenge for fuel. It did hit all levels, but the poorer you were, just like today, the less likely you were to survive when it came to your area.

I am sure that 1% of the population dies from a form of pox every year, and yet we hardly hear about that. Probably because it would be embarasing to die from something the CDC has said we don't have any more.

I do not want to be one of the people who succumbs to disease, but there are things you can do to help keep it at bay.

We are a bit over populated, anyway. IMHO.

Rena <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

I tend to agree with the statement about being over-populated <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />.

Troy

If you think about it, the average age of humans is less than 100 years. I think it's about 80 to 90. This means that almost everyone on earth will die within the next 80 to 90 years. Averaged out, that's a little over 1% of the population every year. In the middle ages, it was probably a little over 2%.

Humans think of themselves as being intelligent, but the fact is, as a species we have an abysmal record of burying our collective head in the sand and ignoring warning signs until Mother Nature brings out the big guns; then those of us who survive stand around with our jaws open going "Wha' happen'?" <img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" />

oh... that's a bit optimistic, even in our "modern" countries
AFAIK it's less than 75 for men and less than 80 for women...
and I would say it's about half of that in "under developed" or Third World countries.
Anybody has more accurate numbers ?

Anyway, that doesn't invalidate your point of vue.

Since buying my Sebenza my wife says that the reason I buy so many toys is because I'm hitting an early (32 years old) midlife crisis. <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> I hope that doesn't mean I'm gonna kick the bucketat 64! <img src="/images/graemlins/ooo.gif" alt="" /> Maybe I should sell the motorcycle, although technically since I have had it since college I don't know how that could count. Of course to her it all counts <img src="/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

This is the exact reason I have never had a flu shot and have not had the flu in 20+ years as mother nature knows best. Flu shots are not a proven science. I believe theses shots play havoc with your immunity that should be built up naturally a pandemic strain of flu is not your ordinary flu and a shot may do little to help, SARS was a good example of this as they couldn't and still do not have a vacine for it.

Get your N95 masks now before the price of them goes 10 fold.

Flip

Fear rules!

Among with all the other media scare stories we are innoculated with on a daily basis, this pandemic one has had an interesting rollout. While it may quite possibly be a true potential disaster in the making - the real existing disaster is the continuously amped up state of anxiety fostered by our corporate media overlords...

<img src="/images/graemlins/shocked.gif" alt="" />

One of the reasons I get all MY news by surfing the Internet <img src="/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

After spending many years in the media in both TV and radio and being married to a (former) TV news producer with a background in print journalism and PR, I can tell you that these days it (sadly) doesn't matter much where you get your news since with the exception of local news, it all comes from the same place... the Associated Press. Large markets, small markets, internet, radio, television, print, local, national, international... almost everyone is a subscriber/contributor these days.