DAM:
I think this could best be answered by looking at the most common calibers available around the US today and perhaps available throughout the world. Ever since I began an interest in firearms and hunting etc. from the days of my youth to my subsequent former law enforcement and concealed weapons permit training; I have probably read 100’s on thousands of articles on a lot of weapons and their related variables in ammunition. I would say that the most common variants of guns are found in the following calibers.
12 gauge Shotgun
20 gauge Shotgun
.30-06 Rifle
.30-30 Rifle
7.62x39mm Russian
.22 LR
.45 ACP
.9 mm
.357 Magnum
.40 S&W
You notice I mention 10 different calibers, which are quite common and readily available pretty much throughout the US and perhaps most are available worldwide. I have read repeatedly about and have personal experience with each of these firearms and understand the most ammunition and parts will be commonly available for each. Just like any other tool, a firearm must have a purpose. Since you have asked your question here, I will say it will be used for defensive and offensive purposes in a survival situation. To get just one gun, consider the need for parts and of course, ammunition.
How would I choose? Well each of the calibers mentioned in the pistol category (last five) can also be used in a rifle e.g. Ruger camp carbine. This gives a greater flexibility for multiple guns, but not the answer you need. The shotgun has been named as a defensive gun quite frequently in magazines and Doug makes note of having one on the earthquake kit page (appropriate warnings included) and you would not go wrong here since small game may be needed to “put something on the table.” I heard even Moscow, RU now imports our 12 gauge for its police department. But, it is not the final choice for me with all things considered and since I already use a .45 ACP for my "everywhere I go" gun then someone would just naturally assume this is my choice. Well it is not what I would chose for my “one gun.” I would choose my Winchester Model 94 in .30-30. It is light, ammo is readily available, so are parts, it packs well across the back and can be concealed if done right. One last thing to consider. All of the calibers mentioned except the .40 S&W have been available for over 50 years now. Some 100+
Jim Brady was then US President Ronald Reagan’s press secretary, who while accompanying the President on that fateful January, 1981 day when Ronald Reagan was shot; was also shot. He suffered a head wound, which ultimately left him paralyzed and wheelchair bound. His wife is none other than Sarah Brady, who formed Handgun Control Inc. to eliminate, or try to eliminate handgun ownership in the US. (there has been enough said and written about gun control, I do not wish to argue this subject.) Sarah’s efforts paid off and on 13 Sept. 1994, the US Congress passed the infamous Brady Bill. The bill was given what is commonly referred to a sunset clause, in which it will automatically expire 10 years from the date it passes into law, unless Congress specifically votes to extend the expiration date. The bill, as you may have heard just recently, expired without any action on Congresses part.
Take care,
Stargazer
"If we believe in absurdities, we shall commit atrocities - Voltaire"