Personally, I'd take a 99 cent mini-Bic lighter over any number of waterproof, strike-anywhere matches. Granted, if the darned thing is cracked and you lose all your fuel, it's not that easy to start a fire with the spark alone (I just tried lighting a piece of single-ply TP with one; after 50 sparks - with the paper inserted into the opening - I took the end of the paper out and it was glowing, but I wasn't able to blow it into a flame. With cold hands and no dry tinder, I think you'd be screwed. But I can think of a lot of things that might go wrong with matches, too.

I think both of them would work about equally well, over the short term. But if I could only have one, I'd choose a good lighter.