If a war breaks out between China and Taiwan, how would it affect us? Is there anything we should do to prepare besides the usual?

Jeanette Isabelle

Bikes and electronics will be harder to get since a ton of bikes and microchips are made in Taiwan and I think China could pretty easily implement an effective blockade. For political reasons, all the cheap stuff made in China that we're used to would probably stop being imported too.

We could expect a dramatic increase in supply chain disruption, particularly for high-end integrated circuit chips made in Taiwan. The Taiwanese military reportedly have the chip fabs “wired for sound” so some of those chips would likely never come back.

With everything from heavy equipment through automobiles down to giveaway toys and logo items using integrated circuit chips, there would be some significant upheaval in commerce. People with modern cars may not, for example, be able to get the parts to fix them.

The other thing we could expect would be gigantic civilian casualties in China on a scale the world has never seen before[*]. Other than the monumental human tragedy, Chinese manufacturing would take a hit at least as big as the hit to high tech.


[* — see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam and imagine that Taiwan decides to destroy it]

I have now found out that Taiwan produces bicycles. However, your statement addressed my main concern. Taiwan is known for manufacturing microchips, while China produces almost everything else. If a conflict were to arise between the two countries, we wouldn't receive any of their exports. Apart from what we're currently getting, I'm still figuring out what else we can do.

Jeanette Isabelle

TSM makes a majority of the world's microchips so a full scale invasion of Taiwan by PRC would gut the world's economy. We saw a very minor version of this a couple times, first when a major typhoon took one of their main plants offline for a year, then again during COVID. China is one of the main manufacturers for the world and sanctions would likely bring international trade to a screeching halt. It's hard to overstate how much impact there would be as few aspects of the world economy would be unaffected.

This is so political that I am hesitant to respond. This is not a hurricane that will come and go.

Suffice to say that such an event would pretty much trash the economic order of the world as we know it. The entire Covid event would be a mosquito bite in comparison. Global supply chains would cease to exist.

From an individual point of view, there is no substitute for access to a patch of fertile soil and the skills and materials to make it produce. This is a constant throughout history, and it always holds true. My 2c.

Let's remove politics and imagine a scenario where Taiwan stops exporting microchips.

Jeanette Isabelle

I *love* my bicycle, and it was made in Taiwan.

Well said sir!

Since, as von Clausewitz said, war is a continuation of politics by other means it's meaningless to discuss a war while ignoring politics. In practical terms if China invades it's a near certainty that the USA would immediately enter on the side of Taiwan, and quite likely that Japan (at least) would be drawn in. RUSI estimates from 100 simulations that in 99 cases the USA wins but loses two or three supercarriers and 35,000 troops. The losses to China would even more catastrophic. It's hard to predict the exact impact on the economy of Japan but it would be serious, perhaps dire. China would be sanctioned out the wazoo and would suffer economic collapse that would hobble them for a couple generations, possibly creating a regime change. The American people would not be thrilled with losing $15B worth of hardware and 10% of our naval personal creating some political challenges for whoever happens to hold the WH at the time. The world economy would take a huge hit, the ability of the USA to project power around the world would be greatly diminished and Russia would be in a much stronger position.

There wouldn't be plastic bowls for $.50 at Walmart for a while but that would be the least of anyone's worries!