Charley is a category 4 hurricane and will make landfall near Port Charlotte, Florida just north of Fort Myers Florida late this afternoon. Tropical Depression number 4 has formed in the far east Atlantic and a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Windward Islands could become another Depression within 12-24 hours.

As of 1:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Charley was centered at 25.7 north, 82.5 west, or about 70 miles south southwest of Fort Myers, Florida. Charley is moving north-northwest at 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. The central pressure reported by the Hurricane Reconnaissance aircraft was 965 millibars (28.49 inches).

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA'S WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET, NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.

Charley did not lose any strength when it crossed Cuba last night; a wind gust to 124 mph was recorded just west of Havana, near the eye of the storm. The central pressure continues to fall and Charlie is now on a northerly course. The hurricane is being steered by an upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. that extends into the central Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level trough is causing Charley to turn slightly east of north, forcing Charley toward the west coast of Florida. Current model output and current trends suggest this landfall will occur in the Port Charlotte area between 4 PM and 6 PM . Charley is a strong category 4 hurricane. (Category 4 defined as 131-155 mph sustained winds). Charley's forward speed and winds will create a maximum storm surge of 10-13 feet to the right of the eyewall. A storm surge of 5-10 feet is possible south of landfall. This storm surge plus the potential for hurricane force winds for a few hours will create extensive damage over parts of the west coast of Florida and in particular the Fort Myers Port Charlotte area. As Charley tracks north-northeast, surface winds will diminish gradually due to friction over land later tonight. Charlie could still be a hurricane as it moves over northeastern Florida later Saturday morning. This track will spread strong winds and heavy rainfall into central and parts of eastern Florida this afternoon and tonight. 4-8 inches of rain is expected in the path of Charley. The combination of strong winds, heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes could lead to more damage farther inland. In particular, a large number of older trees might fall due to the track of this hurricane.

We expect Charley to track by very close to Jacksonville, then by late Saturday, over eastern North Carolina. Charley's track northward, and in particular its proximity to the coast, will determine the amount and location of heavy and perhaps flooding rainfall and severe weather along the Atlantic Seaboard this weekend.