Hurricane Charley, as of 11 AM EDT, was centered at 19.7 north, 81.52west, or about 25 miles north of Grand Cayman. Charley is moving northwest at 17 mph. Estimated central pressure is 983 millibars (29.03 inches). Maximum sustained winds are 90 mph. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, and the southwest Florida coast up to Bonita Beach. A tropical storm warning includes the Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge, to Ocean Reef, and the south Florida mainland to East Cape Sable. The hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for western Cuba and along the west coast of Florida as far north as the Suwanee River. Note from yesterday that Charley has slowed its forward speed. We still think the most likely scenario is that Charley gets picked up by the eastern North America trough, crosses the western end of Cuba tonight, tracks west of Key West tomorrow morning, then turns north-northeast, with a landfall on the west coast of Florida, north of Tampa, tomorrow night, as perhaps a category 2 hurricane.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1153 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...POTENTIALLY MAJOR HURRICANE HEADED FOR THE SUNCOAST...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTH...

...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING
AREAS:

CITRUS HERNANDO
LEVY PASCO

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER

...THE HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...

CHARLOTTE DE SOTO
HILLSBOROUGH LEE
MANATEE PINELLAS
SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS
CHARLOTTE HARBOR
TAMPA BAY

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7
NORTH...81.2 WEST...OR ABOUT 565 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE AT AROUND THIS SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 90
MPH...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES OUT OF
THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 983
MB...29.12 INCHES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE INNER
EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 100 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...NO
MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY EVENING.

DETAILS ON SPECIFIC DAMAGE IMPACTS WILL BE PROVIDED AFTER HURRICANE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN
SARASOTA COUNTY...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921 HURRICANE WHICH MADE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.

THE EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE SURGE SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR
LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...ALL COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE RUSHING TO
COMPLETION ANY LAST MINUTE PREPARATIONS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD A
WARNING BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN SHORT...A SURGE OF 10 OR MORE FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM JUST AFTER LANDFALL. FLOODING MAY BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIME AND VALUE OF HIGH TIDES ON FRIDAY.

...RAINFALL...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ALL AREAS...THESE RAINS WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS.
HOWEVER...IN AREAS NEAR TAMPA BAY WHERE SOME RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AND
ALL RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
DURING AND AFTER THE PASSAGE OF CHARLEY.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THERE IS A RISK OF TORNADOES FROM THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF
CHARLEY...ESPECIALLY 50 MILES OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. TORNADOES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY BEGINNING FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3 PM EDT.