I trust folks will keep this non-political. The point of this post is to warn that potentially bad stuff may be happening in areas you may consider safe and a lot closer to you than you might beleive.

For the past few months our suburb of Phoenix, Gilbert, has had a Thursday BLM protest and counter protest at an intersection just about 1/2-mile from us, maybe 1/3 mile as the crow flies. Nothing special there, just an "arrangement" forced by Gilbert PD. You want to protest, we'll allow it here. https://www.google.com/maps/place/814+S+Gilbert+Rd,+Gilbert,+AZ+85233/@33.3352263,-111.7923453,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x872ba9661400a5bf:0xd367a295853ac977!8m2!3d33.3352263!4d-111.7901566

Typically there's been about 20 BLM protesters on the SW corner. Mostly young kids with 1 or 2 older organizers. Maybe some concealed firearms, but none visible.

NW corner will typically be 30-40 Blue Lives Matter counter protestors. Generally older folks with some kids, fairly well armed with at least a dozen ARs, etc., visible.

Using speakers they hurl insults across the 6 lane road for a couple hours and disperse. Those driving past honk and give the finger mostly to the BLM kids (its a heavily conservative area politically). Usually a couple Gilbert PD members just keeping an eye on things. Mostly folks behaving themselves, with the exception of the vitriol.

Yesterday afternoon/evening was different. Intersection was blocked or they were letting through one lane at a time. Rush hour, busy intersection, backed up badly at times. Folks doing u-turns and such to get around it.

BLM side had about 50-70 protesters. Counted 3 "older" guys with ARs visible "up front". Other side of the street had 300-400 (and growing) and enough arms to start a small war. Counted at least a dozen with body armor. Mostly older crowd, but lots of younger as well.

40-50 Gilbert PD officers there. SWAT rolled up as we left the area. PD did a good job of restraining folks, completely surrounding the BLM protesters. Fire and EMS was in parking lot ready to assist. It was 108 degrees, folks were dropping off cubes of water bottles to the folks on the NW corner.

http://www.equipped.org/graphics/08202020-3.jpg

http://www.equipped.org/graphics/08202020-2.jpg

http://www.equipped.org/graphics/08202020-1.jpg

Not a word of this in the local news last night or this morning.

Social media intel suggested BLM was planning violence, according to my sources, but apparently overwhelming force from Gilbert PD combined with social media call out to those opposed to BLM put a damper on it.

But, it could have easily gone very badly. Intel suggests it may be even larger going forward.

Again, just down the street from suburban middle class diverse residential areas, with exception of SW corner is a county island of generally less affluent Hispanic families who have been there for decades. Unlike many cities where we have seen rioting, a significant portion of the Gilbert population is well-armed.

Crazy times. Be prepared folks. Stay aware of what's going on in your area that may not make the news.

Keep it non-political here.

I strongly recommend to all that you not participate in any protests of any sort, for safety reasons. As you may be aware, there are those who have joined planned peaceful protests in order to start fighting, rioting, arson, and the like. Media coverage of this has been dismal.

Furthermore, I also recommend that you take extra precautions to avoid any protests. To that end, expand your collection of intelligence beyond the news and check social media, protest websites, and traffic apps to see what’s going on. I’ve directed my family members that if they see anything that looks like a protest they are to immediately exit the area, even if that means abandoning whatever purpose they had for their trip. We do careful route planning for trips that previously were taken without much concern.

As the sage Mr Miyagi said so many years ago, “...best block, no be there.”

I would certainly avoid any protests. These days, I would never go into the center of a large city. Just too risky.

I am also armed, should the protesters decide to chase me down and assault me while I'm trying to peacefully stay away. Currently, I would not expect to see protesters on my doorstep. But if they do come and try to gain illegal entry, my response will not be submission.

First best: Total avoidance - this is just common sense

Second best (in case you cannot avoid): Have the ability, training and willpower to protect yourself - this is just common sense as well.


Is it too political to point out that this is probably the reason why your protesters have not gotten out of hand like they have in other not-so-well-armed areas?

Back when I joined ETS many years ago, being prepared was more about signal mirrors, whistles, fire starters, etc. I'm afraid that times have changed, and not for the better. My EDC ferro rod has been replaced by a spare magazine. My fanny pack has been replaced by a high ride concealment holster. Sad.

We had a protest group march in our western suburb in the Des Moines area where they drove in by car and bus to a large mega church and staged from their parking lot to walk to a city park area about two miles away. They went right by the house and I could look out the window and watch them go by. The local PD along with mutual assistance from the rest of the area did just great keeping them on the sidewalks and working traffic at intersections so the group could cross.

Here it was one and done. The support was all from outside the area and we never saw another attempt to come to the suburbs here. While there were some substantial 'protests' in Des Moines proper, including some downtown damage, gas being used and a few arrests, they seem to have peaked several weeks ago and have since faded away.

I'm in an HOA group and the wisdom here is to not display political or social statements/signs to avoid being targeted. I've seen one political yard sign in the last three months and it was only out for a single day before it was taken in a put in a side window - which a few days later was also gone. There are very few bumper stickers or any other external indications by most people here of specific political views - sure, a few but only a very few. It seems to be an entire community has gone "grey" for social purposes. Listening to the local and area PD / Sheriff on-air traffic it seems to be normal traffic and calls being answered.

With that, being retired I am really out of the loop but have heard from a couple of old colleagues that there isn't a lot of concern right now around here because of a substantial lack of local support. Our biggest issue is dealing with the impact of the windstorm from last week and nobody seems to much care about politics right now.

I'm still taking some extra precautions as I'm a bit paranoid but we're lucky in having a more conservative and laid back population.

A ship is safe in port but that's not what ships are for! I'm glad that Rosa parks and mlk didn't meekly avoid protests and 'making waves'!

It's not about avoiding waves. It's about picking and choosing which ones are beneficial to you. Stay away from the ones that might swamp you, ride the ones where you are in control. Right now there are more swamping waves out there, but in not too long there will be more riding waves. Observation, analysis, patience and planning are all virtues. Blindly engaging (or the opposite - joining) an emotional mob is sheer stupidity. Usually the result is the exact opposite of the originally stated intention.

I should have prefaced my previous post by asking what I call the "mission question." My mission is to keep my family and myself safe.

Yeah but you do not deliberately set sail into a hurricane, do you?

The subject is inherently political.
So who should I be most afraid of? The small group with 3 armed guys? Or the 300-400 heavily armed group with body armor?
Unlikely, but we will try.

What is sad is the lack of objectively evaluating relative risks.

Recently I had occasion to visit Oregon. As part of that visit I needed to go to downtown Portland, which has been much in the news. It turns out that the protests in Portland have been confined to a very small area, perhaps 12 city blocks or so, which we easily avoided. The protests and response from the local police and federal troops is no doubt a very big deal for people who live and work in that tiny area. However, outside of that very small area, life goes on very much as normal, or at least as normal as can be during a pandemic. At least 99.99% of Portlanders have seen no direct effect from the protests.

Meanwhile, the pandemic goes on unabated. Current estimates are that at least 177,000 Americans have died form COVID19, mostly (but not entirely) older folks such as myself. I spent roughly the same amount of time on a crowded airplane, flying to and from Portland, as I did in downtown Portland, within a few blocks of the protest. Where do you think I took the biggest risk?

Meanwhile, in California wildfires have burned 771,000 acres in one week, and killed at least 5 people. One fire, the "CZU Lightning Fire", has forced more than 64,000 people to evacuate. Another fire, the "LNU Lightning Complex", had burned 219,000 acres, and destroyed 480 structures, with 0 percent containment. Travis Air Force Base (where I flew out of on my way to Vietnam many years ago) has been mostly evacuated, and the aircraft flown to other locations.

And meanwhile in Iowa, they are only beginning to recover from the recent derecho winds. Thousands without power, probably billions of dollars in damages, and a number of deaths are the direct result of this storm. Some of our extended clan down in that part of the country say that some farms were utterly destroyed, and will likely never recover. And down in the Gulf Coast, forecasts indicate that two tropical storms could reach hurricane strength and may make landfall simultaneously.

Let's keep our risk evaluation, and our preparations realistic.

Where I live, COVID cases are over-counted. Our authorities are on the record stating that every decedent in my county who tests positive is counted as a COVID death, excepting only obvious trauma victims.

There is a counter-argument that in some places COVID deaths are being undercounted. That could certainly be the case.

This goes to risk evaluation: with the data available being unusably poor, we're being more conservative in our precautions than we might otherwise be. We're doing the same with precautions regarding civil disorder. With so much of what's happening not being reported in the news, we're being more conservative in our precautions.

On the plus side, staying home is good for both of these potential threats.

OK, assume COVID 19 deaths are over-counted by a factor of 10. That still means there have been 17,700 deaths from the virus.

I find it very hard to believe that our epidemiologists would be off by full order of magnitude in their estimates of COVID19 deaths, but even if they are, the relative risk from the virus is still vastly larger than from protests.

Also, we need to consider that it isn't just a binary case of if you catch COVID you either recover and are fine, or you die. There is ample and mounting evidence that many people who catch the virus and survive still suffer continuing serious health consequences. For example, a friend of mine was of the very early cases in our area. He was an very aerobically fit guy for his age, but 5 months after he recovered he still suffers significant shortness of breath. We are only beginning to understand the long term effects of this virus!

Also sad is the inability to recognize things you can personally do something about, and things that you cannot.

Can you personally do something to change the COVID risk on an airplane? No.
Can you personally do something to change the California wildfire damage? No.
Can you personally do something to change the damage already incurred from derecho winds? No.
Can you personally do something to divert the tropical storms in the Gulf from land? No.

Can you personally do something to enhance your security/safety during times of social unrest? Yes.

So sure, look at relative risks. But also look at risks that you can actually do something about. And look at risks that may be mitigated, but require the cooperation/coordination of many people. Versus risks that can be mitigated with action by you alone.

Yes I can. I can avoid the trip all together. I can wear an N95 mask for the entire time I'm on the plane or in the airport. (Airlines are only now beginning to enforce mask wearing. Terminals not so much.) I can minimize my exposure by taking direct flights and/or flying at off peak hours when planes might be less crowded. I can do part of the trip by auto to minimize the time on a plane.
Since the start of COVID19 I have done all of the above.
Yes. If I have a home in wildfire country I can clear brush and trees around it ("defensible space"). I can make sure my roof is made of less flammable materials. I can make sure I'm packed and ready to evacuate at a moments notice. I can monitor the situation, and leave when the authorities tell me to (not try to second guess them).
Again, I can pay attention to forecasts. I can have my affairs in order to minimize hassles with insurance and FEMA. I can have back up power available.
Divert them? No. However I can take steps to make sure my home is as resistant as possible to wind and flood damage. I can monitor the weather forecasts, and be ready to evacuate at a moments notice. I can evacuate when the authorities tell me to, not try second guess them.

The main point being that in my opinion, civil unrest is pretty far down the list of things to be worried about. And, as I alluded to in my previous post, I tend to worry far more about the "....300-400 (and growing) and enough arms to start a small war. Counted at least a dozen with body armor" crowd than I do about the original protestors.

It sounds like you are prepared for just about anything. Except maybe civil unrest - which is the topic of this thread. Your entry into this thread pretty much poopoo'ed the original topic, did a little lecturing and belittling, then moved on to other topics. It's fine if you are not concerned by civil unrest. But at least acknowledge that others of us are, and for good reason. Doug brought up a pretty important point, "Hey, this happened right near my home". Maybe he meant his office, not home - I couldn't tell for sure what "near us" in his post meant. But whatever, the proximity is pretty relevant, and indicates that civil unrest danger is indeed real for some of us, if not for you personally.