Isn't that what I said?

As did hikermor.

There have been attempts to come up with a new metric which better describes the overall potential destructiveness of a hurricane. See for example Scientists Develop New Way of Classifying Hurricanes

The probelem is that even with a better scale, there are still many variables which won't be captured. For example, will the hurricane stall in place and dump huge rainfall in one area? Will the storm surge come at high tide or low tide?

In my humble opinion, what is really needed is the public and news media needs to have a better understanding and appreciation of statistical variation, and the inherrant uncertainty in ANY forecast. In my experience, most people are pretty clueless about this.

For one thing, categorization of hurricanes as cat 5, cat 4, etc. is rather gross. If Michael had measured about two mph faster, it would have been a cat 5. We need decimal gradations, much as climbers accomplished by characterizing climbing difficulties by designating fifth class climbs (those in which the leader places some sort of protection in the rock) as 5.1 (minimal) to 5.9 (really hard, at least in the old days).

Similarly, one could talk about a 4.1 hurricane, as opposed to a 4.9, which Michael would have been. Again, it is really much more than wind, and many of these variables (velocity of the storm, path taken by the storm)) are rather hard to predict. One would be prudent to be somewhat pessimistic and plan for the worst while hoping for the best.

That is one factor that deters many people from evacuating. It’s one thing to have a largish expense bill for evacuating if the storm actually rolls thru and destroys your home — money well spent.

It’s totally another thing if you leave work to evacuate and then find a much larger credit card bill and a lower paycheck, and find that not a blade of grass has been disturbed. Do that often enough and you stop evacuating — human nature ... and then your home gets wiped with you in it. That’s why all the hype and exaggeration is dangerous. After one-too-many times of the people in charge crying wolf — just to cover their ass so they can say you were warned, people stop responding to the warnings — human nature.

Costs related to evacuation are certainly one reason that evacuation centers are established by the Red Cross and others. You don't have to incur large motel bills.

I had the option of utilizing a local shelter and decided not to, primarily because it was getting heavy smoke from the fire that triggered evacuations. There are lots of options - friends and relatives will certainly offer shelter; you may have campgrounds available for a nominal fee, etc. Best to plan ahead and weigh these alternatives before crunch time arrives.

Don't know what to say about an employer who would fire an evacuating worker. I would seriously recommend looking for another job - obviously, easier said than done.

This might be another instance where the speed this storm developed was an issue? I don't know how long it takes the Red Cross to set up shelters? Given that this went from a 'no big deal' tropical storm to a near Cat 5 hurricane in 48 hours or so, it might have taken the Red Cross some time to get geared up. I don't know?

Remember that Red Cross shelters generaly use other buildings, such as schools. When a storm develops this fast, I presume the RC needs to talk to the school district (or other agencies), verify that school is canceled, get permission to use the building, get staff there to manage the the shelter, and move in cots, blankets, etc from wherever they are stored. I would be curious to know how long all that takes. I'm sure much depends on prior planning.

Even with prior planning, much depends on the storm's track. The RC shelters themselves might be impacted by the storm. Note that in the article I linked, one person evacuated to a hotel they thought was in a safe zone, only to have to evacuate the hotel when it was damaged by the storm!

Good question. I can only state that locally the county fairgrounds and buildings are used routinely, so there must be some sort of SOP involved - the typical local problem is some sort of fire, so promptness is critical. There are routines established for both large and small animals, as well.

Montanero was involved on running a shelter recently (Florence). He should have valuable insight.

As far as I am aware, sites are surveyed in advance and go through an approval process with the Red Cross to ensure they are suitable and have the necessary space and facilities. I would guess that there are many buildings on a list, and when the need arises they choose the most appropriate ones for the situation.

I would defer to anyone who actually works for the Red cross on this though.

a comment... the school I worked at for 28 years was built in the early 1970s, and during the first years of my employment (prior to Hurricane Andrew) was a designated county shelter...it provided relative wind and water protection, large dining capacity, sleeping capacity, parking, and toilet facilities...

after the building code change post Andrew, the facility did not meet the wind speed requirement to which newer schools were constructed... our parking lot was a staging area for about 100 power line trucks pre staged for Irma