Couple of articles on the aftermath of Hurricane Micheal and the oft told story of food and water shortages after a major disaster.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/ar...ate-for-food-3/

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/13/us/hurricane-michael-wxc/index.html

I must admit I am puzzled. There was ample warning and accurate prediction of Mike days before landfall - and people didn't prepare? - buy a bit of canned food and fill containers with water, check conditions around the house, etc.

I was intrigued by the comment that food in the fridge had spoiled two days after the event. Food might not be really cold, but certainly should be edible, with a bit of preparation.

Frankly, my impulse would be to drive about two hundred miles and get out of the way of the coming storm - inconvenient, to be sure, but way better than staying. Of course, individual circumstances vary, and this may not be feasible for all, but still...

Hurricane Michael was extraordinary and there was not nearly as much time as usual to prepare. Hurricane Florence, which caused so much havoc in the Carolinas, began its march toward the U.S. two weeks prior to landfall. Michael popped up very quick and much closer to the U.S.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2...m=.b3d25f740d10

73 hours: That’s the time from when Michael was named as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds until it made landfall as one of the most powerful hurricanes in U.S. history. Initially, many expected a landfall along the lines of usual in October in the northern Gulf of Mexico, something like a Category 1 or 2. Michael had different plans.

1 mph: That’s how far Michael was from Category 5 at landfall. Highly unusual, especially in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Michael enters the books as the fourth-strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States based on wind speeds. Only three infamous Category 5s — Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969) and Andrew (1992) — rank higher.


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Dagny... please continue to contribute, I really enjoy your comments, especially considering where your reside...

73 advance notice rates as ample time on my scale, and it was pretty clear that it would be a category 4 when it arrived on the coast.Of course, Florence was indeed much slower. We get much less advance notification for earthquakes, or even fires, for that matter.

It seems to me that too much emphasis is placed on the 1-5 wind velocity scale is predicting the consequences of a storm. It is a pretty technical distinction when a storm has velocities all of one mile per hour below cat 5, and is thus "only" a cat 4. The amount of rain fall and flooding potential seems to be at least as significant as wind velocity. Evidently, most hurricane related fatalities are due to flooding and storm surge, not wind velocity (at least on land).

I have experienced 80 mph on one occasion and that was bad enough. I can't imagine what twice that velocity would be....

Here in California, work is progressing on a system that will give advance notification of an earthquake, with advance warning times ranging from a few seconds to perhaps 15-20 minutes, depending upon distance from the epicenter. Still experimental and expected to be full of glitches, but a big improvement on the current situation.

Hikermor, I think Dagney's point is that they really didn't have 73 hours notice. When the storm was 73 hours from landfall, it was only a tropical storm. Not trivial, to be sure, but certainly not rising to anywhere the same level of concern as the Cat 4 (almost Cat 5) storm it was at landfall. The intensification happened very fast, and even the meteorologists were very surprised: Hurricane Michael Intensified Quickly, Taking Many by Surprise

Here in Anchorage, winds of 40 knots (Tropical Storm level), are fairly common, especially in neighborhoods on the upper hillside. These are downslope Chinook Winds, and happen multiple times a year. No one would even consider "driving 200 miles" to get out of the way if 40 knot Chinooks were in the forecast. I suspect the same is true with tropical storms for folks on the Gulf Coast.

My impression is that people down there had at most perhaps 36 hours of warning that it was going to be a hurricane. More than for an earthquake, to be sure, but not nearly as much as is typical for hurricanes.

This is rather puzzling; I was following the forecasts rather vicariously, since it didn't affect my situation directly and Mike's intensification to a cat 4 was known to me, sitting snug in SoCal well in advance of landfall - I really didn't note the precise time, but the growth of the storm beyond tropical storm status was stated well in advance. How much advance notification do you need, if a serious event is headed your way (fire, hurricane, tornado - take your pick)?

These days I am free and footloose with few obligations to tie me in one spot and certainly everyone does not have that freedom. I would think that in hurricane country, bugging out in advance of a storm would be an acceptable excuse for almost anyone, but circumstances vary, quite enormously. Driving a couple of hundred miles to an uncertain destination isn't a big deal for me (been there, done that) but that may not be the case for everyone.

I have experienced exactly one hurricane - during an extended training assignment in southern Georgia in 1978. As it turned out, we were on the westerly side of the storm and, although classes were suspended for a day, we had little or no effects, other than a good rain. I remember passing the time by going for a six mile run (wet but fun).

I have read somewhere that many folks experience hurricanes, while on the periphery, and develop complacency as a result, only to be rudely surprised when the storm scores a bullseye.

You make a good point about Chinook winds - here we have Santa Ana winds of about the same velocity, but these are just winds, without accompanying rainfall. In SoCal, when fires are flamed by Santa Ana winds, a prudent person will move, as many of us did about a year ago during the Thomas fire, one of many recently that were fanned by significant wind.

I’ve given up on trying to figure out why people stay when they should leave. Maybe it’s because many people in Fla. have seen so many tropical storms that will soon be a Cat.4 hurricane and then aren’t, that they routinely stay when they should run; some people are addicted to gambling and then they go all-in on a bad hand.

As for keeping food and water on hand — I really don’t understand not having at least a weeks worth of non-perishable food on hand always, let alone during hurricane season. I’ve got at least three weeks worth of freeze dried Mountain House plus a lot more in cans. Personally I much prefer fresh so the non-perishable items stay on the shelf a loong time, but they’re always there. So I just don’t get not having food for an emergency, especially living in Fla.

I think the reasons are much more complicated then it seems. In any natural or man made disaster there are many socioeconomic and demographic factors as to why many people won't or can't leave and conversely, cannot be prepared for any disaster that may befall them.

I agree with you entirely, Russ. My first real job, I was living 45 miles away from any grocery store which was in Flagstaff, AZ. It was definitely a good idea to have a supply of food on hand. There were times when my living room floor was an impromptu dormitory for up to five people who had this habit of eating.

Along with my climbing and hiking excursions, during which it was always a good idea to have just a bit extra on hand to cover the unexpected, I have always kept a reasonable supply of subsistence goods on hand. Ir isn't hard to do (stock up during sales, etc). I don't have to worry about hurricanes (usually), but I would check stores at the beginning of the season, avoiding last minute shopping and all that.