I came across this scary video of a ski lift gone insane in Georgia (not the American state, but the state that was formerly a part of the USSR). Watch both videos if you're curious, but they are not for kids. Apparently the ski lift got set on fast reverse. Some people jumped off. Other people couldn't and got tossed out when the seat made the turn. A few hung on and they were piled on by the seats (I only hope no one died).

[censored]-out-1823826864

So this made me think of a more general question. In an emergency situation, how do you know when to bail? In the ski lift situation, are you going to jump too early (and face the consequences of a deep drop), jump at just the right time (minimizing injury), or get trapped under the seats? I've been thinking about Vietnam. Some people ran away between 1974 and 1975 -- before the situation got dangerous and risky. Some people were able to get out before North Vietnam took over. How did they know when to run?

Ugh, somehow the link got censored. Here's the individual Youtube videos:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0neNZ3CmbGM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrb6-aVBX50

There is a WaPo report on the same event, including a link to the article I try to cite above:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/earl...m=.06364d82b725

there is an concept in political science about cooking frogs... if you throw a frog in a pot of boiling water, he will immediately jump out, but if you place the frog in a pot of cool water, and slowly increase the temperature a little at a time, day by day, he will remain there until he boils to death, as the incremental temperature change is not that much different than the previous day

the slight escalation of the situation around you is difficult to judge unless you have a definitive leave/stay criteria

for me, living in hurricane country, it a CAT 4 or 5... fortunately
I typically have a couple of days warning

the late Jeff Cooper had a series of conditions... white, yellow, red, black regarding situational awareness and the possibility of armed confrontation...

if you are not familiar with the OODA loop, it is a good start
O... observe (an event happening) O orient... to better evaluate what you see physically change you viewing position if necessary D decide.... fight or flight A act...act upon your decision

There are so many variables in the situation and individual capabilities that you can't say here in a forum when you should do something. It always comes down to individual judgement, which would depend on their awareness and ability to enact a solution.

Very generally speaking, a decision to bail will depend on your knowledge of the environment and conditions. I am pretty familiar with western US mountain and desert country, but totally ignorant of tropical rain forest. I would make a more informed decision in familiar country.

What equipment and skill sets are available to deal with foreseeable problems and challenges? If it going to snow,do we have snowshoes? warm clothing?

Urgency - How important is the objective? Must it be done right now? I have abandoned climbs in the face of threatening storms, knowing full well the rock would still be there on a more favorable day.

Basically, however, it comes down to a gut feeling that things are not going well. Discretion wins the day. I have seen too many situations where folks, probably driven by overwhelming egos, pushed on, with very bad consequences, leaving SAR to pick up the pieces....

As Montanero says, there are many variables involved, but these are at least some of the more significant.

Of course, if you knew you were going to be in a rain forest environment you'd probably try to do a little research or get some local expertise.

Obviously all the previous are spot on....something I also 'evaluate' are the 'professionals.....Years ago had 'planned' an ice climb on Mt. Washington.... Just before the weekend came a HUGE storm rolled in.... called the local climbers and SAR... THEY said something like 'No way in *!#@ are we going out there this weekend!' Answered my question. Took an extra OT shift that weekend... good choice.

To borrow a line from the movie Titanic...if the rats (or professionals) are going this way....it's good enough for me.