I just received an emergency alert, suggesting voluntary evacuation from my area due to heavy rains (2 to 4 inches) in the Thomas Fire burn area. Normally this amount of rain would be just another welcome winter soaker, but the absence of vegetation and the hardening of the ground surface means that this rain will almost immediately run off. Our local geography is favorable, our drainage channels are clear, and I think we will sit this one out at home.

The fun doesn't stop just because the fires are fairly quiet - the Thomas Fire is still burning in the back country at last report...

That's a tough call, but the informed decision is yours to make.

Public systems do their best, but are often overwhelmed in large crises, and can only give broad-brush warnings.

And BTW, I'm a bit stunned at the lack of coverage (and concern!) I see at this situation overall. It's a massive disruption, with massive human consequences. (And massive insurance consequences, for which anyone in the Western world is paying. Anyone like me!) It's amazing that this story came and went like a lost kitten up a tree. Where is everybody? Hello?

Staying or leaving is always an "interesting" choice. In my case, I have only good things to say about our emergency alert system, which also functions as an Amber Alert when necessary. Both mandatory and voluntary areas were rather precisely defined on clearly rational (albeit scorched!) grounds. This flood event, post fire, was extremely predictable.

Even so, I was just watching the bad news from Montecito,
about thirty miles west of us. Swift water rescues, homes swept off their foundations, possible fatalities...I am sitting here with my half liter of coffee, checking in on ETS - just another rainy day.

Six fatalities in the Montecito area, with many more rescued. Hwy 101 is closed, due to debris flows. In terms of human lives, the flood is worse than the fire....

Update at 6PM - Thirteen fatalities with around two dozen people unaccounted for. Large numbers stranded and inaccessible....Fortunately the rain has stopped.

More than six...
Death toll hits 15 in California mudslides; search goes on
&
...Photos Show California Mudslides' Devastating Aftermath

The 101 is closed between Santa Barbara and Ventura until at least Thursday. The local charter company, Island Packers, who normally convey visitors to Channel Islands National Park, are offering ferry service to SB from Ventura Harbor. Condor Cruises in SB is offering service in the other direction.

If I had pressing business in SB, it would be a delightful, if somewhat expensive, trip....