Russ

thanks. The Weather Underground had a very nice article.
Before going to bed, I took another look directly at the latest GOES satellite images. Yes, Irma is slowing down, now moving at 6 mph. And that could be a prelude to a change in direction. But it is "swinging very wide" to the west ... it did not make the sudden northwards turn that the computer gurus were expecting. It looks more like Irma will swing in an arc, going into the Gulf of Mexico - and then possibly heading back on a collision course with western Florida. The Florida keys will take a beating. And Tampa Bay shouldn't be breathing any sighs of relief ... not yet.

Definitely Cuba and The Keys will be hammered.

It looks like there will be some computer gurus in metereology - all the grad students working on their PhD's - who will be spending tonight drinking coffee ... and wondering why their predicted ground track went off course. Their predictions across the Virgin Is, Puerto Rico and the approach to Cuba were very good. Something went wrong when Irma was beside Cuba.

Pete, for some insight on the computer models used for predicting Irma's path, take a look at Cliff Mass's blog post from Thursday. Cliff Mass is a professor of meteorology at UDub in Seattle. He usually focuses on Pacific NW weather, but is an expert on these big scale models. He has pointed out in other posts that these models require truly massive computing power.
American Versus European Models and Irma's Big Turn

Today (Saturday) he posted an update: Hurricane Irma Takes a Western Route Northward

It will be interesting to see his analysis after this event.

I don't know how. I have a regular cell phone, not a smart phone.

Jeanette Isabelle

It looks like the storm has turned northwest. It will absolutely ravage the Florida Keys. I can hardly believe that there are a lot of people - including older people - who decided to shelter at Key West. I hope that their building is OK. Who on Earth would decide to stay in that place ... what were they thinking??

Irma will be over warmer Gulf of Mexico waters - which will allow it to strengthen again. This is super BAD news for Tampa Bay, and all the towns on the Gulf Coast of Florida. The most recent path is highly destructive for low-lying areas of Naples and Fort Myers.

AKSAR - big thanks. I will take a look at those Web pages. It seems like Irma is such a big storm, that the computer models are not capturing its true inertia (i.e. its momentum and its angular momentum). It is just not possible for an enormous hurricane to "turn on a dime" - which is what the original models predicted. But I think your point is absolutely correct - they would have to run enormous computer models to capture the whole weather system.

There is a very good argument that NOAA needs better and bigger supercomputers.

UPDATE NEWS / Sunday 10 Sep
A very dangerous day is unfolding in the Florida Keys and much of West Florida,” Michael Brennan, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, said in an early morning update Sunday. “It certainly could inundate the entire island. That’s why everyone in the Keys was urged so strongly to evacuate.”

I've PM'd Jeanette_Isabelle. Anyone else who is in the storm zone may PM me for my mobile number. Keep in mind this is intended to stay in touch with ETS and not for any emergency assistance.

Google "Hurricane Irma Crisis Map" and you'll find:
Google's Crisis Map centered on Irma
And,
Real-time Florida Road Closures which uses Google-Maps on your smartphone.

amazingly - a couple of live webcams are STILL working.

go to ... https://www.mybeachcams.com/florida/miami/

choose the 'Port Of Miami Live Webcam'

and you can see what a hurricane looks like. You have to click on the black box in the center of the computer screen (with the words 'Welcome To Port Miami Webcam') - to activate the livestream camera.

Conditions are pretty rough there.

Keep in mind - these links get flooded with viewers after we publish them. so you might want to return later, if it's busy.

high tides on the Gulf Coast - these times for Fort Myers today

early high tide - 6:42 am
late high tide - 7:57 pm

Fort Myers already had its high-risk time (storm surge) early this morning. But Irma will be arriving near Tampa Bay this evening, during the late high tide.

MEANWHILE A LIVE QUOTE
from a person who stayed at Key Largo. It's hard to believe that people do stuff like this ...

John Huston, who was riding out the storm at his Key Largo home, was already seeing flooding in his yard before the arrival of high tide. "Small boats floating down the street next to furniture and refrigerators. Very noisy," he said by text message. "Shingles are coming off."

Thanks for pointing out the crisis map. Moving it around a bit, I note that LA and Ventura counties are under a flash flood advisory for later today. Will the fun ever stop?

It's been raining all day. Earlier the wind was howling but has slowed down. We have a few branches down.

Jeanette Isabelle