If you decide to leave, leave early. Otherwise, your options are limited or eliminated.

TRUE.

The biggest thing that everyone should learn from this - is that city and Gov authorities will not evacuate a large city ... unless they are strongly convinced of widespread casualties. Even when a major hurricane is approaching an enormous city, city and state authorities will not evacuate. Why? Because casualties are unknown, and mayors are more afraid of being criticized for over-reacting. So ask yourself one question ... for any impending disaster, HOW will authorities know the exact number of future casualties? Because unless someone can give them a convincing argument for a high number of casualties, they will choose to keep people in place.

So the advice above is the best advice .... get out early - your own personal decision - if you think the action is warranted.

Just to drive home the point, right after I typed the last comment, authorities ordered an evacuation of a county in Texas. This area is at risk because a levee has burst. This is near the Bravos River, but not in the urban area of Houston.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/levee-b...ocid=spartandhp

The point is this. The problem with the levee breaking Or overflowing) has already been known. Probably engineers probably knew about it yesterday or last night. So by the time the situation has gone critical, it's still several hours before they tell people to evacuate. And many people remain very confused about which roads are passable, and which roads are immersed in water.

Meanwhile, the news has released that CHP officer drowned in his car on Sunday in Houston ... while trying to explore high water (on roads) and find routes that were passable.

So in other words ... GET OUT EARLY.

I've been watching the continuing FoxNews coverage and they interviewed one of the homeowners near the levee that failed. The locals there patched it and backfilled. It is yet to be seen if their patch holds, but the interviewee seemed confident of their construction job.

We'll be talking about this event in October.

A historical footnote - derived from the LA Times - more than 60 of the 100 deaths attributed to Rita were connected to the evacuation, rather than the storm itself. While a lot of discomfort and disruption is reported, there are not that many fatalities (so far)

I also read that portions of the land in the Houston area is subsiding at more than 2 inches per year - they had better keep updating their topographic maps (Thank heavens for LIDAR). Those floodplains are on the move!

I think we have a situation where the correct answer to the question - Should we stay or should we go? is---

Neither of the above

Officials would catch flak regardless of their choice.

Based on the stories that are coming out of Texas, there have been some great "personal efforts" by first responders ... including the people who formed the 'human chain' to pull a victim from deep water, the Cajun Navy (terrific effort!), and the folks who re-built the levees on the Bravos River. No doubt there were many other personal efforts that go unrecognized.

Also, FEMA and the City of Houston seem to have a done a great job with the emergency shelters. People have cots and blankets. It looks well organized.

CONGRATULATIONS to everyone who contributed to this 'big save'.

I got the word a few minutes ago. The body of a friend of a friend was recovered today.

Jeanette Isabelle

I'm so sorry for your loss, Jeanette! It's a terrible tragedy; hopefully things improve soon.

Sorry to hear the bad news Jeanette. Prayers for you and the family.

UK media now reporting explosions at the Arkema Chemicals plant.
This has been expected for some time and the area evacuated, so hopefully no lives have been lost.
This facility handles organic peroxides that require active cooling to avoid decomposition and explosion.
No utility power for cooling and the standby generators are below flood level.

Today I will complete standing down, assuming HurCon 5, and will have an AAR coming out soon.