Tropical Depression/possible Cat 1 Hurricane, HARVEY is approaching. I'm currently in the Lake Charles, La area and we have set HurCon 4.

Crown Weather is a subscription site for his analysis, but offers current National Weather Service maps and forecast updates... scroll through the entire report

http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropical/atlantic-tropical-weather-page/

Stay safe, Wildman! Looks like a lot of rain in the forecast....

looks like this Hurricane picked up a 'full head of steam' in the last 24 hours.
Speaking figuratively. Major evacuations and flooding coming.

Very true about "picking up steam"! I got home this afternoon and immediately started getting us to HurCon 3. Tomorrow is HurCon 2 and we're departing before evacuations are called for. I hear Missouri is nice this time of year....

wildman

very best wishes for you and your family. agree with you that going north and getting completely out of Texas is smart. you could also try west, over to New Mexico. not so many people will go that way.

I listed to the FEMA Director on the radio tonight. he said that the predictions for the path of Harvey thru Galveston are pretty accurate. and a serious flooding emergency is expected. but what surprised the authorities was how fast the Hurricane has gathered strength. The scientific models did not predict that.

So I think that your strategy to get ahead of the crowd is very smart.

Pete

He shouldn't have to go all the way to New Mexico, although the advice to get out of Texas is generally good guidance in any weather.

Has anyone heard from Blast? He is much closer to the storm...

This one is shaping up to be a real flooder. After making landfall somewhere around Corpus Christi, it is projected to stall or reverse course slightly and then meander up the coastline here to the Houston area. I'm not terribly concerned about the wind, but the NWS is using the term "catastrophic flooding" and predicting 15 to 35 inches of rain for this area through Wednesday. Storm surge is never an issue for me as our house is well away from the coast at 140 feet above sea level but sheet flooding is a real possibility out here on the Katy Prairie. Houston is called the "Bayou City" and it doesn't take much to fill the bayous to overflowing and because it's so flat here, there's nowhere for the water to go. My prayers are with the people downstream from us as they are doomed if the predicted rainfall amounts occur. We've got flood insurance so we're covered.

I believe that Blast is on the north side of Houston up in the Piney Woods, so he'll have downed trees to deal with if the winds are high.

Amen, bro! Opinions will differ, of course, but Texas just isn't my kind of place. Maybe that's why I ended up in Alaska?

I'm in Louisiana. A westward bug out is out of the question. I am looking going north or east depending on what the storm does. It will eventually turn and head NE but that will be Tue or Wednesday.

We are now in HurCon 3 with most of the HurCon 2 preps already completed. The ball is now in Harvey's court. We'll sit tight and watch what he does next.

I forgot that I have a 2 waterbobs! I'm filling them now and have added them to my HurCon 3 checklist.

I have a single bathroom with tub/shower, so a waterbob limits any drain option... a 33 gal plastic trash can allows me to have non potable water for shower and flushing toilet and still allows access to a shower drain... in 2004/2005 we did not lose city water pressure, but a black painted dedicated use garden sprayer works for a shower water pressure if needed...

keep safe

Wow, this is turning into a bad one. The rainfall forecast is just insane. Be safe, everyone.

Got a good laugh out of this one:

http://www.fox4news.com/sports/276162282-story

Of course something like that would be mentioned on the web site of a Dallas station.

Jeanette Isabelle

I just received pics of 1 towboat sunk up to the top of its pilothouse and 1 towboat that is now high and dry on land. Both boats were owned by the same company and there is a third towboat that was also sunk. That has lost 3 towboats in one day.

The weather channel is also showing a fairly new z-drive tugboat sunk in Corpus Christi ship channel. That tug is owned by a Pascagoula, Ms company, I think...

The 3 towboats were all denied permission to seek shelter in CC Hbr.

Sorry but I can't load the pics on here.

Why would they been denied?

Perhaps TPTB feared that the vessels could not be securely anchored or moored and would therefore be a danger to other craft and persons therein.

Or perhaps the harbour was already so full that any extra craft no matter how carefully moored, would damage other vessels by collision.

Sure enough ... tons of rain getting dumped on Texas, esp. near the coast.

It's hard to understand the early reports about Hurricane Harvey. Why did the news say it had increased in strength to a Cat 4 hurricane? Then almost immediately afterwards it was downgraded to Cat 1? But the predictions about major flooding are definitely coming true. And this inundation event is still just getting started. The police, Coast Guard and first responders sound like they are all doing a TERRIFIC job in Texas. Congratulations to everyone.

It's hard to understand why more people didn't evacuate from places like Houston. And also hard to understand why people are trying to drive through heavily-flooded roads. The flooding damage in cities like Houston is going to cost enormous money for the insurance companies. But at least the number of lives lost is small.

Pete

Those are good hypotheticals, but specifically, in this instance, what was their rationale?

Denying safe haven is kind of unusual, especially for mariners...

The changes up to cat 4 and back down to cat 1 were based on measured wind speeds at the time of change. Harvey is apparently remarkable for the rapidity of these changes, at least according to the weatherpeople I listened to..

Hurricanes absorb energy from warm sea water, which strengthens them. As the body of the storm moves over land it is cut off from this source of energy, and hence weakens. According to reports I read Harvey was Cat 4 at landfall, however as it moved inland it rapidly lost energy. I believe it has currently been downgraded to a tropical storm rather than a hurricane.

Some models were predicting that Harvey might move back offshore, where it could again draw energy from the warm water, and strengthen again. Apparently that hasn't happened as of yet.

EDIT: A good source of up to date information is from the NOAA National Hurricane Center.

Thanks for the comments about Harvey (hurricane).

I realize that the Hurricane should gain strength as it travels over warmer waters. And indeed - that did happen. In fact it happened remarkably quickly. Harvey was listed as going from a Cat 1 to a Cat 4 storm.

What I don't understand is why towns like Corpus Christi were not absolutely devastated by high winds. Don't get me wrong. I am happy that the towns on the Texas coast were spared this type of destruction. But how can a Cat-4 storm go to a Cat-1 storm in a matter of two or three hours? Something is seriously puzzling about the whole sequence. People in Texas have said ... Harvey is a bad storm. But it's nothing like the power we saw from Hurricane Ike. I think that meteorologists really need to take a look at this whole phenomenon with Harvey (i.e. the reported wind speeds).

Also ... forecasts now say that some parts of Texas may see more than 50 inches of rain. More rain than has ever been seen before. That would make this flooding event a once-in-every-500-years event. Or maybe, once-in-every-thousand-years-event. The highest data point recorded for torrential rain in a one-week period. It's a little puzzling why the towns and cities were 'caught by surprise". Warnings have been given for 2-3 days. You only have to look at the satellite photos of Harvey to realize that something 'big and awful' is bearing down on Texas. Travelers are now trapped at Hobby airport in Houston, eating the restaurant food to survive. The Red Cross Center is now surrounded by flood waters and inaccessible.

There seems to be a big 'lag time" in how authorities responded to this crisis.

LINK ...National Weather Service calls Hurricane Harvey an "unprecedented event"/
http://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/%E2%80%9Cthis-event-is-%E2%80%A6-beyond-anything-experienced%E2%80%9D-the-national-weather-service%E2%80%98s-ominous-warning-on-harvey/ar-AAqNyDf?li=AA4ZnC&ocid=spartandhp

Pete

I believe the eye of the storm made landfall to the east of Corpus Christi. That means Corpus was not in the most "dangerous quadrant" which is to the NE of eye. That is where the strongest winds will be.

Also, I think it is a bit too early to know just how much damage there was from the winds, as reports are still coming in. See this photo spread in The Atlantic for examples of some damage that did occur. Apparently the area around Rockport, which is east of Corpus, was especially hard hit. Years ago I spent a little time in Rockport, and my recollection is that it is (was?) a delightful little town.

EDIT: The "dangerous quadrant" is due to the relation of the storms movement, relative to the wind circulation within the storm. See the Wikipedia article on Buys Ballot's law. Quoting from that article:

I'm holding at HurCon 3 with all HurCon 2 preps completed. We're ready to go, if the need arises.

Based on current forecasts, my only bug out route is now to the east. Our bug out distance needs to be 300-400 miles.

wildman

I think they should have made you the Governor of Texas. Or at least, the state coordinator for emergencies. You were the only one listening.

Texas has now mobilized 3000 National Guard troops. That is a very smart move. This crisis is by no means over. Houston and other cities have to get through a whole week of this stuff. this is only Day #1. People are gonna' start running out of clean water, food and sanitation pretty quickly. It will be a real mess in the communities with the high flood waters.

AKSAR - maybe you are right. We never heard from the towns that got hit with the hardest winds. That story has not been told yet.

And finally - here is an article that asks the same question that I am asking ... why wasn't Houston evacuated??

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/harvey-is-causing-%E2%80%98epic-catastrophic-flooding%E2%80%99-in-houston-why-wasn%E2%80%99t-the-city-evacuated/ar-AAqNzHI?li=AA4ZnC&ocid=spartandhp

Pete

Yeah, they tried evacuating a couple of million people out of the Houston area a few years ago when Hurricane Rita came calling. Didn't go well.

FEMA has also poured in 5,000 personnel to Texas. I think the biggest thing that will help Texas is if first responders pour in from many surrounding states - or from across the whole country. That's the only way they will get on top of this.

Pete

I just ordered a replacement Aquatainer WaterBob to replace the 1 of 2 that I used. These are single event water tanks because I'll never get the internal surfaces dry to restore them. The 2 waterbob's boosted my potable water storage to 260+ gals and I have 130 gals of fresh rainwater in reserve. I have no affiliation with Aquatainer but I do like this product.

Latest weather report indicates you may be seeing Missouri in the near future. Forecast is for what left of Harvey to move back over water, regroup and then come ashore closer to Houston. This storm is not over.

This one sounds pretty hairy scary. Thanks for keeping us posted. Stay safe, guys!!

This one has turned into a flood event. 25" and more rain coming. The authorities have asked for more rescue help from private boats.

It definitely won't go well if you don't plan for it. Which they apparently hadn't for Rita. And clearly still haven't done. You need to come up with a good plan. Then you need to practice it, by that I mean table top and other exercises for emergency management folks, first responders, etc. That helps you find out where the plan breaks. Then you need to modify your plan as appropriate. Then communicate that plan widely to residents and other stakeholders.

While getting the entire 6.5 million Houstonites out clearly isn't feasible, there are a number of things that could have (and should have) been done to get people out of the most hard hit areas.

1. Do a staged evacuation, so everyone isn't trying to leave at once. Evacuate the most vulnerable areas and populations first. That means nursing homes in low lying areas, then residents of low lying areas. Then the next most vulnerable areas, etc. These days with GIS, hydrologic data, etc, it is pretty straightforward to identify the areas most at risk.

2. Identify evacuation routes, and find ways to make them work better. Identify which roads are most likely to flood first. Plan to reverse traffic flow on inbound lanes. In other words, make all lanes on key roads and freeways outbound.

3. Communicate this planned sequence to residents and stakeholders. In today's world, hurricanes are not surprise events. They had several days to communicate which areas would evacuate first.

4. Identify safe staging areas for law enforcement and emergency personnel, so that they can remain in flooded areas to discourage looting, and rescue those who can't get out in time. Practice staging them there.

4. Make evacuation orders mandatory. That doesn't mean police drag people from homes. But studies have shown that calling an evacuation "mandatory" leads to significantly better compliance for people.

5. Have a consistent message from officials. Don't have the Texas governor saying "Evacuate!" and the Houston emergency manager saying "Shelter in Place!".

All this does require planning and practice. It also does cost a little money to create these plans and rehearse them. And recognize that no plan will cover every possibility, but it is much easier to modify an existing plan to meet unforeseen circumstances than to create a plan on the fly. Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, who successfully ran the Normandy Invasion (probably the most complex military operation of all time) put it so well:
“Plans Are Useless, But Planning Is Essential”

And for next time, consider prohibiting new single story homes.
Require that all new construction be of at least two stories, and of substantial construction.
When a structure is designed as a home for two families, require that it be divided such that each family has part of the upper floor.
Old folks homes, nursing homes and the like should be on at least two floors and have ramped access from floor to floor to facilitate moving everyone to the upper floor.

In very low lying areas, where even an upper floor would be vulnerable, prohibit new construction.

For those living in EXISTING vulnerable homes, encourage the purchase of a small and unsinkable boat, perhaps by making purchase of same tax deductible.

A few years ago I saw an article about a new style of house, developed in the Netherlands, that, while it sat on the ground, was constructed in such a way that it would float in a flood (while still centered on pylons or such).

Maybe should be looked at again, with wider application. . .

Possibly, but it sounds expensive and perhaps more applicable to places with very high population density and therefore high land prices. In other places with relatively lower population density it might be simpler to build some place else ?

some good ideas here.

I don't believe that any of America's major cities can be evacuated at the current time - not without major chaos and disastrous effects. Houston is no exception. This time they decided to "shelter in place". I'm not sure it helped, especially because a lot more rain is coming. Somewhere in America a group of city planners need to take on the challenge ... how to get a lot of people out of a city. Right now, no planners have a practical answer.

About houses ... I agree that single-story homes should have been banned. It would have been much smarter to build houses on stilts. Especially in the lowland areas. But all of that costs extra money. The explosion in city growth really equates to an explosion in city greed. Local politics are dominated by realtors and housing construction magnates. they pay off city authorities. They get themselves elected. They carve up all the land, and rake in as much $$ as they can. When a true disaster strikes ... they throw up their hands and say "Don't blame me. Nobody could have seen this coming". And then they look for more money with re-building programs.

It's no different in California. The realtors have sold housing tracts on top of the San Andreas fault. Literally, just yards from the fault line. All these houses will be bulldozed by the next great quake. The problem is widespread along a big section of the fault line. Everybody knows it's a ripoff, and the casualties will be high. But no-one ever holds them responsible. The problem is human greed, doled out in very big doses.

This is an unprecedented event. While there are certain areas here that have flooded before during extreme rainfall events and can be expected to flood every time we get lots of rain in a short period of time, this time there are areas flooding that have never flooded before.

The Harris County Flood Control District has been creating huge flood mitigation areas upstream from these problem areas over the past few years in an effort to retain water upstream and control when the water will be released in order to lessen the effects of these events.

Everything they have done has been overwhelmed completely by the estimated 15 trillion gallons of rain that have already fallen, with another 5 trillion expected to fall by the end of Wednesday.

The Latest: Harvey rainfall would fill NFL football stadiums

Unprecedented but not unanticipated. The vulnerability of the region to catastrophic flooding has been well documented many times for many years. See for example Boomtown, Flood Town. Also see Hell and High Water. And Is Texas Ready for Hurricane Harvey?.

I really wish people would get off this 'can't evacuate the whole city of 6.5 million' idea. You don't need to evacuate all of Houston. Many of those 6.5 million people are not flooded. However, you can and should try to evacuate those in the most flood prone areas. It is difficult to 'shelter in place', when your place has water up to the eaves!

Forecasters were predicting extreme record breaking rainfall amounts for the Houston area well before Harvey made landfall. Many areas in an around Houston have repeatedly flooded in the past. With that weather prediction, it was literally a no brainer that those areas that flooded in the past would flood this time. There was absolutely no reason why the authorities couldn't have tried to get people to evacuate the well known flood prone areas. However, as I noted up-thread, that takes planning, which apparently wasn't done. If even half of the people in known flood prone areas had evacuated (which would be way less than the 6.5 million number I keep hearing) it would have freed up rescue resources to concentrate on those areas which no one anticipated would flood.

Full disclosure: I'm more than a little familiar with the issues in Houston. I spent my career as a geo in the oil patch, with the bulk of that time in Alaska. However, I worked in Houston for several years, and lived west of town in Katy. Even while living in Alaska, I've also traveled down there on business on many occasions. My wife and I have ridden our mountain bikes on the levee around Barker Reservoir, the one that they are now releasing water from out of fear the dam might fail. I was there in 2001 and saw the flooding from Tropical Storm Allison.

I am not familiar with the area and only posted what was in the news link. I imagine though, even if they had decided to evac 500,000 to a million people, it would have been a massive undertaking.

“Where do you take them? How do you get them where you want them to go?” Paulison said. “Who’s going to take care of them when they get there?” -from the article posted above.

Sage comments. It's like the whole "bug out" concept, which, while terribly "in" right now, is a horribly flawed idea.

A major metropolitan area has tons of resources - food, water, medical care, shelter, transportation and manpower. If you "bug out" voluntarily - leaving the city behind to flee into the wilderness, once you have exhausted the resources of your nifty "bug out bag", where do you get more stuff? How will you survive out of your element? Where do you find shelter? How do you connect with people who are willing to help you and avoid people who are willing to do you harm?

It's a three to four hour drive (without traffic delays) to Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin - the nearest cities of any decent size. Even using contraflow evacuation lanes (southbound interstate lanes converted to nothbound travel) which they created after the Rita evacuation fiasco, you basically only have 4 main lanes of traffic to Dallas/Ft. Worth, four to San Antonio, and four to Austin.

With strategically pre-positioned fuel tankers, water supplies, and deployed emergency personnel along these routes (something else they have implemented), you will have massive traffic jams for 150-200+ miles in every direction which may have flooded in places trapping thousands upon thousands of people out in the open with nowhere to go.

And staged evacuations do not work. The hurricane evacuation plans in place call for the folks living directly in the Coastal Zone to evacuate first, then folks further inland in Zone A next and so on. Storm surge affected areas, basically. Maybe 1 to 1.5 million people. During the Rita evacuation, people who had ZERO danger of being affected by storm surge overreacted and decided to evacuate. They estimated that 3.7 million people tried to leave. All at once. You can't control that.

You can't control irrational people with poor critical decision-making skills who aren't able to understand that those poor people in New Orleans up on their rooftops waving at helicopters lived in areas below sea level surrounded by levees that failed. Half the people in my subdivision (140' above sea level - 70 miles away from the coast) evacuated before Rita. Right now, we are still flood-free.

I want to close on a positive note. People are helping people here in the Houston area. It's what we do here in Texas. In addition to the government shelter efforts, churches and other non-governmental groups are taking in displaced people and citizens are volunteering their time and donating supplies to help those in need. The outpouring of help has been so overwhelming, that some shelters have turned away volunteers and donations. This will be a long term recovery for many people however, so please consider donating a contribution to the American Red Cross.

You are herding cats when directing a large scale evacuation. Even in mandatory evacuation situations, there are folks who will not leave - they don't believe the forecasts, this has never happened before, the gov'mnt is lying, I don't want to go to a 'FEMA" camp, etc. Personal factors play a large role in deciding whether or not to move.

That area of Texas is relatively flat, low lying coastal plain, and it not immediately obvious which localities will flood (although careful mapping should help with this problem). The typical hurricane hits the coast, loses strength, and moves - typically to the north and east, and the rainfall is dispersed over a very wide area, often with beneficial results. In this case, weather patterns confined Harvey to the Texas coast, and precip is concentrated.

My sister is living (still) in Houston. Talking to her before the event, she was fairly complacent and had no desire to leave. She lives on fairly high ground and has a secend story, so did OK in the event.

Still, one wonders why development is allowed within a 100 year flood plain, anywhere. For that matter, when i become Emperor of the Universe, one of my first executive orders will be to evacuate New Orleans and turn it into the world's largest National Alligator Preserve.

Standing down from soap box...

ONE thing that would really help - is just to know which roads are passable. Not just for Houston, but many other towns in Texas. There are lots of TX residents saying (in the news) ... "we were going to evacuate, but we were not sure if we could get through in our car. It's not a good idea to get stuck in flood waters in your car, so we decided to shelter in our house". That story has been quite common.

People need news - with fast updates - about local road conditions. That type of really helpful data has not been available.

The only people who needed to evacuate were those in likely flood zones. Evacuation of the entire city of Houston is not realistic, but specific areas could have been evacuated.

I live in SOCAL and for wildfires you only evacuate areas under direct threat -- wind conditions and fuel. In the case of Houston, it was known that Harvey would be a major rain event. City officials should have known which parts of Houston were prone to flooding and acted accordingly. They told everyone to shelter in place.

This is why people learn to disregard city officials. They totally blew it and now they are trying to justify their decision with talks of how it's impossible to evacuate the entire city.

Not sure why people would bug out in the wilderness. If you are going to bug out, go quickly before everybody else does and have money ready. Book your vacation, while traveling to a save distance. Why get stuck in a region where everybody else is running too. I would rather play as a tourist somewhere way further, than a refugee.

If you decide to leave, leave early. Otherwise, your options are limited or eliminated.

You raise a good point. Such mapping seems a basic necessity to any sort of emergency planning, especially flood evacuation planning. With such maps, and a reasonable estimate of how high the water will get, it should be possible to ID the most flood prone areas and evacuate them to local, higher grounds, instead of trying to evacuate masses of people hundreds of miles.

Where I live, there are detailed maps (by the Feds) of the 100 year flood plane. I think they exist for most of the country on-line. They certainly would be a good place to start the planning.

That kind of mapping already exists. One of the links I posted earlier ( Boomtown, Flood Town ) shows the 100 Year and 500 Year Flood Plain on a regional scale. Also note the dots showing buildings that have historically flooded that are outside of those flood plains. With GIS it would be easy to incorporate that into the flood plain maps. The USGS supplies free DEM data ("Digital Elevation Model") at a 10 meter map grid for the entire lower 48 states. While this was originally derived from 7.5 minute topo maps, it is continually being updated as better data ( LIDAR for example) becomes available. I know that NOAA has also been doing high precision DEM mapping for Texas coastal areas.

So tell me Blacktop, do you think a staged evacuation would have been worse than what is happening now? Would it be worse to be stuck in a massive traffic jam on higher ground North of Houston, rather than being stuck on a rooftop in the rain? Right now we are seeing a massive extremely chaotic evacuation using boats, helicopters, air mattresses, kayaks, etc.

Yes, there will be an element of chaos in any large scale evacuation. However, experience from wildfire areas shows that it is possible to do. Realistic advanced planning helps a lot. Remember the "7P" principle. Much better to get at least some of the most threatened people out ahead of the flooding, than to mount a massive ad hoc rescue effort after the water rises and the roads are blocked.

If you decide to leave, leave early. Otherwise, your options are limited or eliminated.

TRUE.

The biggest thing that everyone should learn from this - is that city and Gov authorities will not evacuate a large city ... unless they are strongly convinced of widespread casualties. Even when a major hurricane is approaching an enormous city, city and state authorities will not evacuate. Why? Because casualties are unknown, and mayors are more afraid of being criticized for over-reacting. So ask yourself one question ... for any impending disaster, HOW will authorities know the exact number of future casualties? Because unless someone can give them a convincing argument for a high number of casualties, they will choose to keep people in place.

So the advice above is the best advice .... get out early - your own personal decision - if you think the action is warranted.

Just to drive home the point, right after I typed the last comment, authorities ordered an evacuation of a county in Texas. This area is at risk because a levee has burst. This is near the Bravos River, but not in the urban area of Houston.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/levee-b...ocid=spartandhp

The point is this. The problem with the levee breaking Or overflowing) has already been known. Probably engineers probably knew about it yesterday or last night. So by the time the situation has gone critical, it's still several hours before they tell people to evacuate. And many people remain very confused about which roads are passable, and which roads are immersed in water.

Meanwhile, the news has released that CHP officer drowned in his car on Sunday in Houston ... while trying to explore high water (on roads) and find routes that were passable.

So in other words ... GET OUT EARLY.

I've been watching the continuing FoxNews coverage and they interviewed one of the homeowners near the levee that failed. The locals there patched it and backfilled. It is yet to be seen if their patch holds, but the interviewee seemed confident of their construction job.

We'll be talking about this event in October.

A historical footnote - derived from the LA Times - more than 60 of the 100 deaths attributed to Rita were connected to the evacuation, rather than the storm itself. While a lot of discomfort and disruption is reported, there are not that many fatalities (so far)

I also read that portions of the land in the Houston area is subsiding at more than 2 inches per year - they had better keep updating their topographic maps (Thank heavens for LIDAR). Those floodplains are on the move!

I think we have a situation where the correct answer to the question - Should we stay or should we go? is---

Neither of the above

Officials would catch flak regardless of their choice.

Based on the stories that are coming out of Texas, there have been some great "personal efforts" by first responders ... including the people who formed the 'human chain' to pull a victim from deep water, the Cajun Navy (terrific effort!), and the folks who re-built the levees on the Bravos River. No doubt there were many other personal efforts that go unrecognized.

Also, FEMA and the City of Houston seem to have a done a great job with the emergency shelters. People have cots and blankets. It looks well organized.

CONGRATULATIONS to everyone who contributed to this 'big save'.

I got the word a few minutes ago. The body of a friend of a friend was recovered today.

Jeanette Isabelle

I'm so sorry for your loss, Jeanette! It's a terrible tragedy; hopefully things improve soon.

Sorry to hear the bad news Jeanette. Prayers for you and the family.

UK media now reporting explosions at the Arkema Chemicals plant.
This has been expected for some time and the area evacuated, so hopefully no lives have been lost.
This facility handles organic peroxides that require active cooling to avoid decomposition and explosion.
No utility power for cooling and the standby generators are below flood level.

Today I will complete standing down, assuming HurCon 5, and will have an AAR coming out soon.

There is an article in the Houston Chronicle: Explosions reported at flooded Crosby chemical plant.
Company representatives and public officials are being very vague about the hazards.
Another article in WaPo: Chemicals ignite at flooded plant in Texas as Harvey’s devastation lingers.
WaPo article has a bit more detail on the potential danger.
Last night on MSNBC Rachel Maddow said that Texas law was changed in 2015, since then the company does not have to publicly release either it's safety plan or any details about what is actually on site at the plant. The company claims that they planned for a worst case scenario, but was overwhelmed by Harvey. However, one of her guests said that there was a way that the company could have mixed in another chemical which would deactivate the organic peroxides so they wouldn't explode, but that would have meant losing some feedstock. The guest also said that keeping a supply of those deactivating chemicals on site is SOP at some plants.

As is often the case in these situations, it is hard to know who or what to believe.

"They planned for a worst case scenario, but were overwhelmed by Harvey."

I guess they did not plan for the worst case!

The very worst scenario would be the plunging of a very large asteroid into the planet, probably into a body of water, and in that case,planning would be of no avail- just ask any dinosaur.

We have a situation here in which definitive data and solutions are simply not available. This is not unprecedented...

Leave it to an archaeologist to ask rhetorical questions of a dinosaur. . .

I'm less concerned that they didn't get the worst case exactly right, than I am about their lack of transparency about exactly what chemicals are there, and what the possible effects will be. That kind of secrecy and lack of forthrightness is almost always counterproductive in the long run.....unless of course they really do have something to hide.

Smoke from those chemicals combustion is already spreading off site. Some of the original chemicals, or combustion products from them will certainly be spread by the flood waters. Seems to me that the public deserves some straight answers. More than just "...don't worry, ....it's just like campfire smoke....trust us..." or words to that effect.

Could it be that in this uncontrolled chemical event that no one knows with any reasonable precision what might be the byproducts of combustion? I must admit that is at least as probable that the people in charge do know and ain't talking......

My comment was tongue in cheek, but also commentary on the common use of hyperbole. "We did everything possible!" "It was impossible to predict!"

I can't tell you how many times I have heard such comments. As Hikermor said, a worst case is total planetary annihilation. I don't think they went to that extreme. I would just find it refreshing to hear more precise language and less trying to get out from under the burden of responsibility.

They compound it with their unwillingness to be honest and up front about the possible dangers to the surrounding area.

Due to the ARKEMA situation which still has 6 more tanks to blow near where my fleet is located and my knowledge of some other plants that are threatening to blow (1 of which makes real bad methyl-ethyl killya). I'm taking my full MOPP gear back to work with me this next hitch as I expect to be around several of these plants.

AAR -Hurricane Harvey

Assumed HurCon 3 on Thursday (08/24) with the intention of bugging out to the North.

Assumed HurCon 2 on Friday (08/25). The power supply to the camper was interrupted since an unknown time and the camper's battery was dead. Hurricane forecast made us postpone bugging out for 24 hrs and a reevaluation of storm strength and forecast path.

Assumed HurCon 1 on Saturday (08/26). Kept up-to-date on hurricane situation and forecast. Postponed bugging out for additional 24 hrs. Determined the only remaining bug out direction was eastward.

Maintained HurCon 1 on Sunday (08/27). Indefinitely postponed bugging out plan based on hurricane forecasts.

Maintained HurCon 1 on Monday (08/28). Made repairs for power to be restored to garage and camper battery began recharging. Lost key to garage door lock. I had spare keys to the camper but not for the lock. Placed order for Aquatainer WaterBoB to replace one of two put online.

Maintained HurCon 1 on Tuesday (08/29) and Wednesday (08/30).

Assumed HurCon 5 on Wednesday (08/30). Started stowing gear. Received replacement WaterBoB via FedEx.

HurCon 5. Friday (09/01), Replaced garage door lock and made 3 back up keys. I used rented bolt cutters to cut the old lock.

Future plans: Complete stand down by Saturday (09/02) night. Some preps will remain in place in light of Hurricane Irma.

Some folks are returning to their homes and finding squatters or looters in their homes.

Apparently the gasoline pipeline that runs from Houston to Linden, NJ is being shutdown. That would probably affect many states on either side of the pipeline and possibly north of NJ as well. It's impossible to definitively state unless the distribution network that feeds off that pipeline is fully known.

Hurricane HARVEY: the gift that keeps on giving!!!

That's absolutely enraging.

Or require built on stilts like some people do with beach houses. I've seen it done along a river in GA or SC. A person built one near a local river and put the bottom of the first floor at least eight feet above the ground.

I just heard an NPR interview with the Chief of Police, Houston. Some looting and burglaries have occurred, but, compared to an average weekend, the number of such incidents is down.

NEWS

The Arkema plant in Crosby, Texas, has gone up in flames yet again.
A plume of black smoke came from the plant on Friday during a very intense fire. At least two of eight remaining tractor trailers containing organic peroxide have exploded, CBS News correspondent Kris Van Cleave reports.
When the refrigeration units quit during Harvey's extensive flooding, the Arkema chemical plant said it would explode at any moment.
Fire crews said they have to let the blaze burn itself out because it's too dangerous to go in. The smoke emitted is an irritant that can create breathing issues. At least 18 first responders were taken to the hospital with a variety of issues, Van Cleave reports.
As the smoke billowed out, police put on protective gear including gas masks. 
On Friday, some residents living near the Arkema chemical plant tried to get around a mandatory evacuation order to get back home but were met by road blocks.

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Organic peroxides ... very unstable at higher temperatures. The fumes are respiratory irritants.

Not sure why this company does not have backup electrical generators for their refrigeration systems.

AAR Part 2:

I'm staying overnight in Sulphur, La. Local churches and other civic organizations are placing stockpiles of prepared meals, clothing, diapers, baby formula, dog food, etc, etc at each motel/hotel. The cheaper the motel/hotel, the more supplies that are allotted. The motels/hotels are laying these supplies out in their lobbies and dining areas.

The Cajun Navy is serving meals each day (1500 CST) at the Conoco station which is located centrally in respect to the hotels here.

I'm really impressed at how the locals are providing for their own and for the Texians that are mostly from Beaumont eastwards of Cameron Parish/Lake Charles area.

As much as we Cajuns tease Texians and vice versa; it is truly great to see how much we assist each other when the SHTF!!!

Your report is indeed welcome news!!

UK reports state that they DID have generators but that these were placed below flood level and therefore of no use during this emergency.
If true, this is very poor planning indeed.
A concrete plinth or a steel frame to install generators above flood level is not expensive.

AAR #3:

I'm back onboard and we have departed Lake Charles, La enroute Houston, Tx.

There are some spots, due to fast currents, that we can only transit during daylight hours, some bridges that we either have to have an escort or break the tow up and go through the bridge with one barge at a time. There are still some areas that are closed to any traffic.

All of these situations ans restrictions are changing on a daily basis.

We are topped off with fuel, lube oil, water, and groceries as there are none available from Orange, Tx to Corpus Christi, Tx, as of right now. The supply situation is constantly changing also.

Just talked to my sister, normally residing in Houston, who took a huurication with her daughter to Philadelphia (daughter's home) where there is a fair amount of relatively dry ground. I would have been much more puckered if I had known that my sister's townhouse was all of two blocks away from Buffalo Bayou- it was not touched by the flood, nor was that of my nephew, who is presently engaged in ripping drywall from friends' homes.

Love that term "hurrication". I suppose an equivalent word for those of us who do earthquakes would be "quakcamp" in which you pitch a tent next to your uninhabitable dwelling and roast chestnuts on an open fire, etc.

Reviving the discussion about Hurricane Harvey because there were issues about why the chemical plant (that later exploded) didn't take better precautions.

HERE IS THE LATEST NEWS
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HOUSTON (AP) — Seven sheriff's deputies and medical emergency responders who say they were sickened by a chemical fire at a plant outside Houston that flooded during Harvey sued the owner Thursday for gross negligence, seeking $1 million in damages.
A state judge granted a temporary restraining order to prevent plant owner Arkema Inc. from removing evidence or altering the scene, said Kimberly Spurlock, the attorney for the plaintiffs. She said a hearing was set for Sept. 22.


The suit alleges Arkema failed to properly store the estimated 18 tons of chemicals that burned or prepare for a major flood even though it was a foreseeable event.
Record rains from Harvey flooded the plant 25 miles northeast of Houston with six feet of water, according to a report Arkema filed with the state. The storm knocked out power, and therefore the refrigeration needed to keep the chemicals stable.
Spurlock called Arkema's preparations "woefully inadequate" and questioned why the first responders did not know what chemicals were blowing up or the risks.
"They weren't told to wear masks, They weren't told to go in there with safety equipment and they're suffering as a result," Spurlock said.
Arkema said in a statement that it will "vigorously defend" the lawsuit.
"We reject any suggestion that we failed to warn of the danger of breathing the smoke from the fires at our site or that we ever misled anyone," the company said.
The chemical compounds — organic peroxides used to make a gamut of products from plastics to paints — became unstable and exploded in flames more than 30 feet high early on Aug. 31, spewing an acrid plume of black smoke.
The Harris County sheriff's deputies who sued were manning the 1.5-mile (2.41-kilometer) perimeter of an evacuation zone set two days earlier after plant workers abandoned the facility, warning of impending disaster.
The suit says they doubled over vomiting, gasped for air and "began to fall ill in the middle of the road."
No one from Arkema warned of toxic fumes, it says, and when medical personnel arrived to help they were overcome "even before exiting their vehicle."
Some deputies jumped inside their vehicles and drove themselves to the hospital.
Later that day, local authorities told reporters 15 officers were treated for respiratory irritation and released.
The last of the organic peroxides were ignited Sunday by fire officials in a controlled burn. Neighbors were allowed to return home the following day.
Neither Arkema, Texas nor the federal Environmental Protection Agency have released results of air monitoring done by the EPA during the fire. Texas environmental regulators have declined to provide The Associated Press with a list of the Arkema plant's chemical inventory, saying they are confidential under the state homeland security act.
A 2016 analysis led by Texas A&M University researchers identified Arkema's facility as one of biggest risks in a corridor with the country's greatest concentration of petrochemical plants.
In accident plans Arkema submitted to the EPA in 2014, executives identified hurricanes and power loss as potential hazards. Yet the plans, which were supposed to address worst-case scenarios, didn't explain what Arkema would do if faced with either.
Texas' environmental commission penalized the plant at least three times.
In June 2006, Arkema failed to prevent unauthorized emissions during a two-hour warehouse fire. In February, the U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration fined Arkema more than $90,000 for of 10 serious safety violations found during an inspection.
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This plant, which is near our fleet, and others that I know of, that were in danger of going critical, with much deadlier chemicals, is why I brought my full MOPP gear this hitch.

My first thought when I heard about that explosive was Blast. Phew! Way to plan ahead, Wildman. If only the powers that be would have done the same. I think FEMA and HLS should hire you, my friend! Stay safe!!

They wouldn't match my present salary that I make as a dumb towboat driver.