http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a-los-a...AApMVVy#image=1

The guide advises people to" Get in, tune in, stay in" and works off the assumption that a 10 Kt device has been detonated, and you survived the initial blast.

On a tangent subject, is there any information on how a blast will affect the local winds? Wildfires release enough heat to generate their own winds, but what about a 10 Kt nuke?

Some thoughts about this ...

Most countries around the world do not understand how the USA works. When US authorities have what they believe to be a "credible threat" they must respond. This means that the US Gov't and military must mobilize resources to counter the threat. And IMO ... so they should. A potential threat to the mainland must have a response. So it is likely that you will see other cities in the USA start to make statements to protect their citizens. They have a legal duty to do this.

North Korea can potentially do 'anything' ... they are very unprecictable. But try to keep in mind - they have never once tested a real ICBM on a realistic flight path. Its really a "hit or miss" game for them, a rocket could go anywhere.

I do agree that if a Korean missile exploded a nuke, wild fires are a problem. Thats a potential problem, but the USA has a lot of great people to respond to this. We can manage it. The biggest risk from a nuclear explosion is the fierce heat from the nuclear bomb. Therefore, if the US broadcasts an "incoming missile" warning, your best bet is to remain indoors or underground ... any place away from open sky. Stay away from windows, do not 'watch for the event'.

I personally think that the USA is dealing with this threat at the right time ... now. Before N. Korea has a chance to make this technology more threatening and more lethal. I live on the West Coast too. I am not losing sleep. The USA has tremendous resources to deal with threats.

THANKS to all US military and civilian contractors who are working super-hard to keep our country safe. Our thoughts and prayers are with you!!

Pete

A significant risk from even a small nuke is indeed the fire risk. It is likely that the fire department and municipal water sources will be overwhelmed.

The risk may be reduced a bit by reducing flammables near your home, and also inside the home near windows.
Prepare for a wildfire, even if you live in area not normally considered a fire risk.

Under normal circumstances, all but the very smallest of fires should be left to the fire department.
However an attack involving even a single small nuke, is not normal circumstances, and it is very unlikely that the fire department will be available.
As a minimum I would keep a few hundred gallons of readily available water, a few dozen buckets, and plenty of fire extinguishers.
Although often ridiculed, the old fashioned stirrup pump is astonishingly effective for such a cheap simple item. Every home should have at least a couple.
Better still would be a large water source such as a swimming pool, and an engine driven pump complete with suction and delivery hose.

Even if you consider such an event to be unlikely, fire prevention and fire fighting preps could be useful in the event of more conventional fires also.

If considering a new home, consider fire resistant construction.

Look at the 1980 Mt St.Helens eruption as an event that is somewhat comparable. Significant blast effects, lahars (debris flows),and all kinds of mischief....Apparently the 1980 eruption released 24 megatons of energy,much less than 10 Kt. Much will depend upon the location and time of an actual nuke.

I'll bet a nuke could start many more fires than even the most catastrophic lightning storm - enough to overwhelm our very fine fire fighting system - it will depend on when and where....

when i spoke about the US having great people ... i wasnt only speaking about the local fire crews. They do a terrific job. But i was also talking about the civil defense system. Yes, the fire crews would be overwhelmed. but that is why we need to be prepared to mobilize National Guard and reserve military personnel for civil defense duties.

This points to the fact that the Governors of CA, OR and WA should be actively preparing emergency civil defense plans -
now!! Likewise, the mayors of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle have some very important steps that they should be taking ... right now. Today. But are they doing it?

The military and the local fire crews are well prepared. I believe the military is up to the challenge. But on the civilian side ... its time for coordinated action. Kudos to Ventura for taking a lead ... ahead of the major cities.

Pete

24 megatons is a lot more than 10 kilotons. 10 kilotons is an explosion roughly equal to ten thousand tons of TNT. 24 megatons is roughly equivalent to the explosion of 24 MILLION tons of TNT.

The two events are not really comparable though, a volcanic eruption can release a lot more energy than a nuke, but this release is spread over hours or days. In a nuclear explosion, most of the energy is released in a fraction of a second.

I'm not particularly concerned but then again, I live east of the Rockies.

" but i live east of the Rockies"

... so if redacted burns down my house in California, can I camp out in your garage??

Hahaha!!

Pete

Oops! Thanks for setting it straight...

I live on the east coast and I'm still concerned, not because we will get hit. We won't. A strike on the west coast will have a greater impact than the attack on the World Trade Center.

Jeanette Isabelle

Hawaii is already reactivating the old fall out shelters in their state. I am curious if continental states will start doing the same.

I have seen FEMA's plan for Crisis Relocation and it is unrealistic in frightening ways.

I agree with you Jeanette. That's why I am really surprised we are not seeing more action from the Governors (and mayors of large cities) who are on the West Coast. They seem to be pushing all the responsibility up to the federal level. But it doesnt work that way.

No-one has a real knowledge of the exact capability of N. Korea's missiles. If we use the estimates stated in the public news lately, then cities like Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Washington D.C. are just out-of-range of Kim Jong-Un's missiles. That's good!! But given the mentality of the Korean dictator, he is probably making a major effort to change that right now. In the future, if it is revealed that New York does come into range of the weapons, i just cannot imagine the mayor of New York sitting around and doing nothing.

And by the way - what about Alaska and Hawaii??? They are closer to Pyongyang than the West Coast of the USA. Hawaii is very smart if they are reactivating their shelters - they really need to!

Pete

Also my Great Aunt Eleanore, who by the way just turned seventy, and that side of my family lives in and around California. That is another reason to be concerned.

Jeanette Isabelle

That was a bit tongue-in-cheek. Obviously the administrations there and here are both a bit...over the top. But I don't think DPRK is suicidal. They work hard to appear crazy but I don't think they are. They're smart enough to know that using a nuke against the US or a close ally would mean their utter and complete destruction. Nukes are powerful tools to have in the tool box but they're nearly impossible to actually use. Granted, few weapons in history have ever been fielded and not used and things could change but I don't expect a nuclear exchange between the US and North Korea.

As far as stocking radiation meds, etc I really don't think there's much concern where I live. If the unthinkable happened and there was an exchange I don't think anything DPRK has can reach over the Rockies. Obviously it would still be disastrous to the world but not a radiological risk.

I beg to differ. I think Kim Jong-un truly is three fries shy of a happy meal. Yes, check your supply of potassium iodide tablets.

Jeanette Isabelle

I seriously doubt that Kim Jong Un thinks he can fire a nuke at the USA and survive it, nor do I think that he wants to die.

I suspect that he might well be deluded enough to believe that he COULD nuke America and survive.
Remember that he is surrounded by advisors who are required to agree with the great leaders views and observations.

Suppose, for sake of argument, that a senior advisor to the dear leader suggested that an attack on America was unwise and might not succeed. I would expect that the advisor would be executed within minutes.

if you'd like to see how a single nuclear explosion would affect any city, including yours, worldwide, go here: http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

interactive.

The N. Koreans have backed themsrlves into a corner. They cannot stand down, they cannot change policy without making Kim Jong-Un look foolish in front of his own people. This is the weakness. Jong-un is more afraid of losing face in ftont of his own people. Therefore, if necessary he will fight a war, even a nuclear one, rather than risking "shame" inside his own country.

Missile wars happen very fast. In a missile war, you cannot afford to be #2. You must hit your enemy first. Both sides know this, and N. Korea has stated it publicly. So the rhetoric from both sides today (Friday) has put the entire Korean Penindula into a hair-trigger situation.

Things here in California are very calm. People dont seem at all concerned, they are going to work, or playing golf, as scheduled. I havent even seen anyone buying extra water or food. I am happy that people are remaining calm. But i cant help feeling that the Internet experience has caused many people to live in a 'virtual reality'. They Tweet about their opinions and concerns, but they do not take practical steps to safeguard themselves.

Pete

A missile war between North Korea and the US would be short. I do not believe we will launch a preemptive strike (conventional or nuclear) on North Korea simply because the N.Korean artillery response on Seoul would be devestating and very difficult to stop. That and the Chinese will probably be in the game if we strike first. OTOH if Trump stays on the high road and North Korea does something stupid/crazy, then we would be fully justified in responding with overwhelming force and methodically take out every site we have targeted. It would be short.

If Kim goes ahead with his missile launch with the aim of dropping a ballistic missile into the ocean near Guam, my thinking is that a minimum of two and probably all the B-1 bombers deployed to Anderson will be airborne before the missile impacts the water -- if the missile impacts the water. It's very possible we will use that missile as a practice target for THAAD and Aegis sytems in the area.

For us back here in CONUS, Guam may seem like a remote and not all that important target. I've been to Guam many times and trust me, the Navy and Air Force would take a test shot toward Guam very seriously. I doubt they would just let the test go as planned. Then again, I'm not familiar enough with the kinematics of those missiles and the geometry required to engage a ballistic missile with a planned offset to the target. I guess we'll see if and when.

Interesting times.

Getting back to the original post, I am intrigued that I, a resident of Ventura County, first found out about this warning through ETS. I regularly read the local paper - no articles. There is nothing posted on Ventura County's emergency website that I could find. I am on the CERT county roster, and there has been nothing through that channel.

Oh well, if you are prepped for an earthquake, a nuke will be just another bump, except that it will glow in the dark....

Geezer In Chief .. looks like ETS is doing its job. Congratulations to Doug and the members here. It appears that the mayor of Ventura did the "minimum job" to get out news about a nuke disaster scenario. But that's stll light years ahead of anything that Sacramento has done. If a N. Korean missile hits Californinan turf, then the mayor of Ventura may be the next Governor of California. Haha!!

Russ. I agree that an attack on Guam would bring about a very strong response from the USA. When the N. Koreans said this on the news, i was immediately skeptical. Missiles headed for Guam would need to cross through S. Korean airspace. Very likely the USA would try to shoot them down.

Its possible that N. Korea could loft missiles on a high trajectory, and splash them into the ocean. Maybe a few hundred miles from Guam.

Or its possible they could fly missiles to the south, and into the Philippine Sea. But if they send a long-range missile, they risk crashing it into Australia. Whatever Kim Jong-Un does ... it will fall into the category of a major "threat display".

About strategy. If you think about it, both sides have a 'best strategy' to use a preemptive attack. The reasons are different for each side. So if military planners throw caution aside, and follow Sun-Tzu, a preemptive attack is a real option. This makes the situation highly unstable.

Actually, I would give Sacramento and Gov Moonbeam reasonable credit for emergency preparedness. After all, we don't have to depend upon foreign countries to launch rockets at us; we have our very own domestic facility - Vandenberg AFB at Point Conception.

There have been at least two occasions when errant missiles posed problems. I had a ring side seat on Santa Rosa Island for one of them and a good hard hat as well. There are forest fires (large, small, and often numerous), tsunamis, either droughts or floods (take your pick), and the ever present earthquakes. Don't forget oil spills, great and small. At least hurricanes and tornadoes are rather rare. I think California's infrastructure can deal with a nuke event as capably as anyone, but let's not put that proposition to the test, if you please....

Not nukes, but now you can add volcanoes to the list of natural threats in California.

With 8 threatening volcanoes, USGS says California deserves close monitoring



Volcanoes -- as if neoprene tasting sharks weren't bad enough...

Geezer in Chief ... i finally figured out that you might be on Santa Rosa Island on a semi-permanent basis. Yes, you have got a problem. If a N. Korean missile falls short of the CA coastline, you are in the "splashdown zone". And if a rocket from Vandenburg goes astray, who knows. You might be in the debris path also.

You might want to go down to Home Depot and buy a few concrete blocks ... to reinforce your house. Just sayin'. Hahaha!!

Yes, Pete, I have spent a lot of time on Santa Rosa Island and I look forward to spending still more time there. I retired as Channel Islands National Park Archaeologist in 2001, after sixteen wonderful years, and I get out there as often as I can.

About 1992 we were on the island doing field work. Ironically, we had spent the morning recording an underground WWII command center and returned to our base camp for lunch. As we exited our vehicle, there was a loud boom, and a very bright fireball falling into the sea to the west. Without a word, we all headed indoors, although the roof over our heads would not have been much protection against anything significant.

The commotion was an off course rocket launched from Vandenberg, intentionally exploded while nearly over San Miguel Island, the next park island to the west. A large chunk of the rocket engine landed on its south coast.

I have heard stories about another rocket that landed on the island in earlier years, and before rockets, there were airplanes coming to grief on the islands - a B17 on San Miguel, an Avenger near Anacapa, and for that matter,a commercial airliner three miles off Anacapa in the 1990's.

Here's my rough draft for a DefCon Checklist. This would used in conjunction with the commercial websites: www.defrconwarningsystem.com & defcon warninglevel.com (no affiliation with either).

DefCon CHECKLIST

DefCon 5 (normal Living):
Stay abreast of current events

DefCon 4 (72hr warning):
Update Bug in & Bug out Plans
Monitor Current Events

DefCon 3 (48hr warning):
Monitor Current Events
General: cancel all planned vacations, scheduled events except for medical requirements,

Load camper with potable water, 4 sets of clothes for each person, additional camping gear/supplies, portable lift, DD1 hygiene supplies, Intel files,

Load truck with cargo rack/chairs, genset, propane fuel, battle rattle, 2 day hiking packs,

Move into home: MOPP Gear, emergency food stores,
Prep for relocating: financial records,

DefCon 2 (24 hr warning):
Monitor Current Events
General: top off all gas tanks and cans,

Move to Camper: all emergency cash, financial records, ready hygiene supplies for DD1. All emergency meds, field FAK's, load bicycle,

Home: box all food supplies, Clean all weps, move camper stove & fuels into home, relocate air filtration to home, bring older lift inside,

DefCon 1 (Nuclear attack imminent):
Monitor Current Events
General:

Truck: Load gas stocks,

Home: install air filtration system, have weps ready for skirmishing, construct in home shelter in Living room,

Camper: standing by in case bugging out becomes necessary

Copy and modify this checklist as you wish to fit your own situation and needs. Disseminate as you wish.

The link does not work.

How do we know what DefCon we are on?

Where do we go to bug out? I at least know what areas to avoid.

Jeanette Isabelle

Go to the website. DefConwarningsystem.com set DefCon Level 4, 2 evenings ago, 11Aug2017.

The details have to be worked out by the individual based on their own needs, location, etc.

This is the checklist that I've created and am still developing based on my family's location, needs, resources, etc.

In case of a real nuclear attack, you'll probably go from DefCon 5 directly to DefCon 1. OTOH, since people at high levels are discussing the subject, you can move to DefCon 2 right now, but most of us can't stay in DC-2 very long, so we fall back to DC-5. IMO, in a real situation, you'll get 20 minutes warning tops. The missile with your hometown as its target will have already launched. Just sayin'...

I respectively disagree.

1st rule: Don't live in a target area.

2nd rule: Maintain a decent Intel system.

I'm in DefCon 4. That's very easy to maintain indefinitely.

DefCon 3: Easy to attain and maintain for long periods of time.

DefCon 2: Easy to attain and maintain for short periods of time.

DefCon 1: Easy to attain and maintain long enough for the situation to peak and either it will quickly ease up or it goes for broke. Need will dictate one's endurance.

I 100% agree, I would not live in a targeted area. I'm living on the fringe, if not now, later.

Jeanette Isabelle

I doubt this crisis is over yet. But i do think that the OP asked a perfectly legitimate question. And the points that have been brought up do represent real issues.

I have no idea what the DefCon status is.
But if the crisis continues, i might buy a large flat-screen TV and go to BeerCon 1.

BTW, i do live in a target zone.

I live in a highly likely earthquake prone area and I try to be prepared for that eventuality. Realistically, there will be NO prior notification of the event. A system currently under development might give advance warning ranging from a few seconds to a few minutes, depending upon the location of the epicenter.

My alert status, on the DefCon scale, is exactly DefCon 4.32. I follow elements of W800's measures nearly all the time; e.e; I try to keep my gas tank filled at all times; vital gear placed in secure locations around my property and outside the house, etc. It is safe to say I live in a target zone, but it is nice country. I manageto enjoy life now and then.

With respect to target zones, there are those that nukes are intended to hit, and there are those that are actually hit; they are not necessarily the same, I'll wager. And then there is the issue of fallout. It is probably not the best situation to be downwind of the mushrooming cloud.

Even if an adversary is turned into a glowing, radioactive pit, one has to wonder about the eventual effect of radiation, probably circulated world-wide, on the "winners"?

Read On the Beach by Neville Chute and Pulling Through by Dean Ing.

Another good book on this subject is War Day by Whitley Strieber and Jim Kunnetka

Some vintage advertising that might become relevant again.

youtube link

Are your community shelters stocked with these supplies ? I fear that these days that most of the shelters no longer exist, let alone contain serviceable supplies.

O/T trivia, can anyone see what is wrong with the restored polarised light sign that is shown ?

LOL, I saw one of the civil defense shelter signs once and followed it to what should have been a CD shelter. It was storage for admin supplies -- copier paper and such. No survival supplies at all. 50 years ago that may have been a shelter but today, not so much. Yes, that building would be a target.

This is the story of one person who was extremely close to an exploding nuclear bomb. You would think it would be impossible to survive, if you are inly 300 meters from ground zero. But its not.

https://www.inicom.com/hibakusha/akiko.html

it should be explained that the atomic bombs in Japan (1945) were exploded in the air. but just the same, being almost directly underneath an explosion is an extremely serious incident. Nevertheless, survival is possible.

The current situation with N. Korea is being exploited for hysteria - especially by Kim Jong-Un himself. I doubt that N. Korea has this capability today. But it is better to take preventive action, hopefully through meaningful negotiations, before they do get this capability.

Does anyone carry an eyepatch, to be worn when the threat is high, so if they are caught by a flash they only lose one eye? UK 'V' bomber pilots wore one whilst in the air.

P.S. I knew a Brit who was under half a mile from GZ at Nagasaki. He was a POW and labouring that day. When the air raid warning sounded he was escorted to an ordinary air raid shelter by his guard.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1...tion-offer.html

Ian ... very interesting stories .. thanks for posting.

yes your idea of the eyepatch would probably save one eye, which might be crucial. It's brutal though ... all the exposed skin will be burned away.

It's noticeable that some of the British POW's were exposed to the notorious 'black rain' of the atomic blast. Yet they lived into their 70's. Quite remarkable. Black rain is drops of radioactive mud that fall from the sky ... like raindrops. Only in close proximity to the explosion. Its very nasty stuff.

Once again, thanks for posting. I had never heard of these British POW's before.