I'm surprised Dagny hasn't posted this one already.
If DC had to evacuate, would you know what to do? Homeland Security says you need a plan

My evacuation plan for DC is simple; don't live there. I figure California is far enough away, although I must deal with LA.

Out of the frying pan into the fire...

Yep. Northern Virginia was close enough for me. Now it's evacuating SoCal, you still need a plan.

Did they mention how long it would take?

I somehow missed this, thanks, Russ.

I do have a plan and that is to shelter-in, at least until the city clears out, and keep my fuel tank topped off. And I'll have a couple bikes (locked) on my bike rack and my dog's bike trailer will be on the roof.

On 9/11, it took a few hours for the streets to be deserted, and that was with no discernible citywide planning. But that was mostly Virginians and Marylanders going to their homes. If DC residents are evacuated that will certainly add some hours to a weekday evac. Of course, the context of the evac will matter -- if radiation were involved, there would be panic, which was mostly absent in DC on 9/11.

Interesting wrinkle: 37% of DC residents don't own a car. That's a higher percentage than New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina hit in '05.

DC's normal rush-hours are awful. Anyone who thinks this city can be evacuated with any haste is seriously deluded.

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It's times like this when I wish we had a "Like" button on ETS. I have nothing valuable to add, except to say "Props!" Added to you other comprehensive posts, nice response, Dagny. Very smart plan! (Where to Start? Just search Dagny's posts here, especially in Urban Preparedness and Natural Disasters for some awesome insight!)

I don't live in DC, and I'm not a pilot, but I would want to own some sort of aircraft that could take off from my residential street if I lived there. I grew up in Manhattan and feel the same way whenever I visit.

Something to think about during any major evac ... Elevated freeways are perfect kill zones Elevated freeways, bridges and many other highway system designs are perfect for trapping a target rich environment. LE response will also be delayed by the traffic that backs up outside the trap.

I like Dagny's idea to bug-in and let the heavy traffic clear out. Once you start to move you need to be assured there's a relatively clear shot to your destination.

I'm thinking if it was something really bad they were evacuating from (chemical attack, nuclear attack, coordinated terrorists, etc.) then stoplights and traffic control officers would be largely ignored. I, for one, would not be sitting there waiting for my left turn arrow to turn green if there was an attacking mob closing in behind me.

You'd also think that they'd deploy all that camera/traffic light stuff during NORMAL times, to deal with the daily traffic congestion. Why wait for an evacuation if the infrastructure is already in place?

I do not believe that any major city in the USA can be evacuated in a few hours time. The same comment applies to almost all of the major cities around the world. Cities have grown so big, that they are far beyond the capability of their transportation systems. Most large cities are struggling to handle the tide of commuters at rush hour. THAT is their max capacity for moving people. It is literally impossible to evavuate most of the people in a short period of time.

The world has gown to the point where our large cities are "sitting ducks". If any critical emergency happens that threatens the lives of many people, a negative outcome may be unavoidable.

Sad but true.

Anything more than a few people trying that at once would cause major problems on top of the existing problem that caused the evacuation.

I would rather have a loaded touring bicycle or some variant, perhaps motorized. You could carry more stuff and weave through traffic, carrying the bike and the load past many obstacles, as well as taking the road less traveled. Distance would vary with the individual, etc., but 100 miles in two days is very reasonable for anyone in any kind of shape.

Now I am not familiar with motorcycles, rather more with the pedal variety of two wheeler, but that load looks unstable. When pedaling, keeping the weight low and centered, distributed evenly between fore and aft, is key. Compact, efficient packaging is also important in minimizing wind resistance.

Note to self - when evacuating, head down wind if at all possible. That can make a huge difference in distance traveled....

It's a picture from one of the Mad Max movies, the post-apocalyptic films where there are all kinds of hooligans roaming about the desert trying to survive. Not known for their accuracy and realistic interpretations of motorcycle loads and balancing.

But it gets the point across, in a tongue-in-cheek sort of way. I would want a motorcycle for escape from a city to, just loaded a bit more realistically!

To be sure it's not realistic, if for no other reason that both cities have very rightly controlled airspace. And I'd expect it's illegal to take off from a residential street in both places :-).

That motorcycle looks like something from you might see in Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Sahara... I would agree with Hikermor regarding stability, especially if the fuel cans are full.

That said, a small, lightly loaded motorcycle/scooter would work well if you had a bug-out place already stocked and no need for additional supplies.

I don't have one, but there are a number of scooters available that get 80-100 mpg and will move you and a bag of groceries well over 150 miles quickly and should be capable of weaving through traffic jams. The fairly new Yamaha Zuma 125 looks to have adequate storage for necessities on the road and will get you 170 miles on a single tank. No affiliation and this is not a recommendation, just an idea...

Beauty of the bicycle (+ dog trailer):

1) no worries about gasoline and gridlock caused when cars run out of gas, as many will before they reach even the Beltway.

2) ability to vacate the city via the National Mall, C&O Canal towpath (184 miles going northwest), Mt. Vernon trail (18 miles headed south), W&OD Trail (45 miles going west) and the many other bike paths we have in the DC metro area.

http://washcycle.typepad.com/bikemap/


DC's "Bikeshare" bikes surely would be part of the exodus.

I'm blessed to have so many hobbies which mesh with evacuation (such as camping, hiking, biking and bikejoring). I believe most of the credible threats against DC (including low-yield nuke or dirty bomb) would make sheltering-in, and least short-term, a better and more viable strategy than immediate evacuation. There will be no immediate evacuation unless the alert goes out at 3:00 a.m. and you happen to be one of the few who know to leave.



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I rode the bike path from Arlington to Mt Vernon and figured it was about 30 miles round trip. That was a good work-out. In the early 90's the bike paths were well maintained and you could move fast (for a bike). It's frowned upon in normal times (read probably illegal) but in a pinch the bike paths would be an interesting option for a scooter to get outside the Metro area.

DC has a publication called "Transportation tips during an emergency incident."

It lists 19 "official" evacuation routes. IMO, even using all 19, it will at best very very slow. As Dagny points out there are other routes. IMO, trying to drive out will be impossible. Walk, cycle, scooters, dirt bikes and motorcycles will be the best alternatives.

link to the "tips:" http://ddot.dc.gov/sites/default/files/d...edness_2011.pdf

A few years ago we had a thread on Bikes, scooters, etc - alt. forms of transpiration, which included (down about page 5) some posts on a "Disaster Relief Trials" bike event in Portland, OR.

Apparently that event is still going strong, and has been copied in other cities, including Seattle, Eugene, Memphis, and San Francisco.
The emphasis of this event is on bringing supplies into a disaster area. However, it is quite obvious that the same approach could be used for individuals to evacuate from a disaster.

These competitions typically seem to include several classes of bikes, for both specialty cargo bikes and also recreational type bikes. Various load categories, and riding various distances. An interesting concept.

I have bike commuted for many years, and when not climbing or hiking, I have enjoyed self-supported bike touring. The bike is definitely not a toy, but the motive power (you!) must be in shape, physically and mentally. If I had to evacuate, i might start by vehicle, but a bike would be part of the load in case of traffic jams etc.

It goes without saying that one must be familiar with the bicycle, and be able to handle routine repairs and adjustments.