I am coming to heartily despise the term"SHTF". Aside from its mild vulgarity (really no big deal), it is simply imprecise (a bigger deal). It is often used to describe, apparently, the total collapse of society and a relapse into total anarchy which will be surmounted only by those wise enough to stock plenty of ammo and Wheaties inside their stockades, but there are plenty of variations....

I prefer to consider more mundane mishaps, like the priest unplanned overnight incident in a companion thread (been there,done that)- ranging upward in scale to more profound events (winter storm Jonas, earthquakes, wild fires) as an event one is more likely to encounter. I am tempted to propose a scale running from pico disasters to nano disaster up to micro disasters, disasters, and mega disasters. I suppose there should be a place for the venerable acronym TEOTWAWKI, which absolutely could happen, but which is rather unlikely, at least in my lifetime.