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#276187 - 08/12/15 04:57 AM Body of missing 5 year old child found.
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 3161
Loc: Big Sky Country
I had hoped there would be a happier resolution but it was not to be. Searchers found the body of five year old Jerold Williams near the campsite where he went missing near the Grand Canyon. Maybe someone here is familiar with the area? On one level, not having been in the region, how a kid that young could have wandered far enough that searchers couldn't find him. The article said he had wandered off while chasing grasshoppers. Poor little guy. frown

I'm not sure what the takeway is here beyond keep a close eye on young children. I feel that the "hug a tree" training is probably the best option as far as teaching a kid, especially one too young to really understand survival.
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#276190 - 08/12/15 04:56 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
A very sad ending to a search. The following press release was forwarded to many in the volunteer SAR community.

Originally Posted By: Media Release

Jerold Joseph Williams Found Deceased

Jacobs Lake, Arizona –The body of missing 5 year old Jerold Joseph Williams was found on August 10, 2015 around 4:30 pm by a group of volunteer searchers from Colorado City. The group was driving along Forest Service Road 240 when some boys who were in the back of the pickup saw the body of Jerold on the ground around 15-20 feet off the road. Jerold’s body was found approximately 3.7 miles point-to-point from the place Jerold was last seen. However, by road it was approximately 8.6 miles from the place he was last seen. Because Jerold was found close to the road and the road would have been a natural walking area for him compared to the very thick brush, it is believed that Jerold probably found his way to Forest Road 240 and followed it to Forest Road 241 in the direction away from the camp site and may have walked off into the forest to lay down to rest. He was found fully clothed with no obvious external injuries, and there is was no evidence of foul play indicated at the scene. The weather had turned inclement early during the time he was missing. An autopsy was performed today and Coconino County Medical Examiner’s Office preliminary findings appear to be accidental death due to environmental exposure. Based on the environmental conditions Jerold was exposed to it is unlikely he survived the first night.

The focus of the search area was based on information from data gathered from other searches (for example the Arizona Lost Persons Behavioral database and other resources), proven mathematical models, as well as a profile of the lost person including location and time last seen, mobility, activity level, and other behavior. Jerold was found within what is known as the containment area of the search. This area is a concentric circle outside of the area of the main focus of the search efforts but within the search perimeter. Natural boundaries such as roads are often part of the containment area with the hope that the person will be found before leaving the containment. The main focus of ground search efforts had been some 21 square miles, which was a 2.1 radius from the point Jerold was last seen.
The search spanned 5 days and 4 nights with 1,000 or more people assisting. The support from the community was overwhelming. There were close to 900 people from the community who collectively volunteered thousands of hours of their time to the search efforts, not only in the field, but also by providing meals and other support. A great majority of these volunteers were from the community of Colorado City who gave their full support to the search efforts. In addition to the community volunteers, we are grateful to all of the state, local and federal organizations including the U.S. Air Force Rescue community which involved the Air Force Rescue Coordination Center, Air Force Rescue air crews, maintainers, and para-rescue. The Air Force Rescue crews were able to utilize advanced night optics to conduct overnight search operations. Many area businesses provided equipment and resources which was greatly appreciated. This was the largest spontaneous volunteer response the Coconino County Sheriff’s Office has handled, and the cooperation of the community was greatly appreciated.

Personnel from Coconino County Sheriff's Office, Yavapai County Sheriff's Office, Pima County Sheriff's Office, Maricopa County Sheriff's Office, Kane County Sheriff's Office, Washington County Sheriff's Office, Coconino County CERT Teams, Arizona Wing Civil Air Patrol, Utah Wing Civil Air Patrol, Arizona Department of Public Safety, U.S. Forest Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, FBI, Rocky Mountain Rescue Dogs, and the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children participated in this search.
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
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#276192 - 08/13/15 04:19 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
I agree - very sad. prayers for the family!!

I think the decisive factor was weather. It probably also hampered the search. visibility may have been limited.

I honestly don't see a positive answer for a young child like that - in rain and cold weather. His best hope might have been to crawl under thick bushes to escape the weather. but the chances are - he was already soaked and hypothermic, before he stepped off the road. it would be a SERIOUS situation for an adult, unless they remained dry and knew how to construct shelter and a fire.

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#276198 - 08/13/15 03:31 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Pete]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
I will share a couple of extra thoughts abpout this ... navigation.

The MAIN thing - if you have a kid in the wilderness, and your child is one of these "adventurous" personalities - it might pay to attach a PLB directly to your child. It would save a lot of heartache ... if the child becomes lost later.

About navigation. The story of the lost boy finding the forest road, and turning in the wrong direction, reminded me of a Lesson Learned (a long time ago). I used to do outdoors navigation exercises. Just walking with a compass, taking sighting and bearings. Basically the same as Orienteering. I used to do it alone in the desert. In that stretch of desert, there were many bushes, with the tops above head level. It was EXTREMELY easy to lose your direction, and pretty easy to lose your car (to my chagrin).

My first exercise ... do a simple triangle pattern. Each leg about 800 yards long. Try to return to your exact starting point. BAD IDEA ... I reached my Starting Point. I had a small error (easy to make with a compass). And I could not find my vehicle. It was completely lost amongst the bushes. DUH!! The moral of that story - do not return to a specific point on a map, unless it's a really visible landmark.

My "improvement" ... when I did the return leg, I intercepted a dirt road. This was much better, because you are guaranteed of crossing that road. BUT the problem with this idea ... when you hit the road ... do you go to the LEFT or the RIGHT. Hahahaha! MORE time wasted!! :-)

FINALLY, I got smarter and realized - when you do a navigational exercise, DELIBERATELY MISS you target (the final ending point). I changed the compass reading so I KNEW that when I intercepted the dirt road, I needed to walk to the right down the road. Problem solved.

The little boy in this story was alive when he found the Forest Road. Tragically, he walked the wrong way on the road. But there was no way that he could have known the answer.

Pete

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#276199 - 08/13/15 08:12 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Pete]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Pete
My "improvement" ... when I did the return leg, I intercepted a dirt road. This was much better, because you are guaranteed of crossing that road. BUT the problem with this idea ... when you hit the road ... do you go to the LEFT or the RIGHT. Hahahaha! MORE time wasted!! :-)

FINALLY, I got smarter and realized - when you do a navigational exercise, DELIBERATELY MISS you target (the final ending point). I changed the compass reading so I KNEW that when I intercepted the dirt road, I needed to walk to the right down the road. Problem solved.

The method you used is a fairly standard land navigation technique, often called "aiming off" or "angle off" (probably other names as well). Your dirt road would be called a "handrail", and is a "line of position" (LOP). That is, some linear feature that you can recognize on the ground. You may not know exactly where you are, but you know you are somewhere along that linear feature. Significant streams, long well defined ridgelines, and power lines would be other examples of handrails.

I find that with a typical baseplate orienteering style compass with a sighting mirror, if I'm careful I can walk a course in thickly wooded terrain to within about a plus/minus 2 degree error. To aim off, I would plan a course about 5 degrees off of the true course. (Twice my estimated error plus another degree to be on the safe side.) If it was exceptionally difficult terrain to follow a compass course, or especially dire consequences if I messed up, I might plan to be a bit more than 5 degrees off.
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"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#276203 - 08/14/15 08:31 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 3161
Loc: Big Sky Country
The only problem with attaching a PLB to your child is that they need to be activated/deployed to work. I don't think (and correct me if I'm wrong) they can be "pinged" but need to be activated by the user. My knowledge may be dated but I think you need to pull out a big antenna, too. A small child may or may not be able to understand how to use one. [Note: Some folks with kids tell me their 2 year olds can figure out how to use every function on a remote control, so maybe I'm not giving the little ones enough credit.]
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#276205 - 08/14/15 02:31 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3837
Loc: USA
PLBs cannot be activated or pinged remotely.

I can't speak to other kids, but all of my girls at age 5 could have been taught to use a PLB correctly, although it's always easier to train that sort of thing with a dummy unit.

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#276206 - 08/14/15 02:48 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: chaosmagnet]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Just give the kid a iPhone and turn on location services so you can use the "Find my Phone" app. It needs to be within cell coverage, but better than nuthn.

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#276207 - 08/14/15 03:00 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: chaosmagnet]
Doug_Ritter Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/28/01
Posts: 2206
Originally Posted By: chaosmagnet
PLBs cannot be activated or pinged remotely.

I can't speak to other kids, but all of my girls at age 5 could have been taught to use a PLB correctly, although it's always easier to train that sort of thing with a dummy unit.


While I would agree that many children at age 5 can be taught how to activate a PLB, I wonder how that translates to the real world with kids who rarely have good judgement skills, especially boys. <sigh> I would be concerned about them deciding to show-off or otherwise play with the PLB, setting it off in a non-emergency situation. That could cause significant problems, not even considering it is illegal. Obviously, as they get older it is less of a problem.

You also have the not unusual fear of getting in trouble that has caused a number of fatalities or near fatalities as young children avoid searchers for fear of adverse consequences to them from parents. That can be somewhat ameliorated by training, but that training has to consistent with how they are treated in other situations as well or it can be ineffective.

If you have cell phone coverage, then there are readily available tracking options, but without cell coverage, something like a SPOT would work for tracking them if tracking is turned on. That would be the best solution, I expect.

Beyond that technology solution, I don't think there's a good non-tech answer to situations such as this beyond being constantly vigilant. It really is no different than kids around water. It only takes a moment for things to go from no threat or fun times to potential death.
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#276212 - 08/15/15 01:28 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1372
DOUG - very good point.

So perhaps for kids, one of the SPOT2 (or SPOT3) devices with the TRACKING turned ON ... is actually a much better option. Can be activated by the parents, will give an updated location every 10 minutes. Does not need emergency signal activation (although that can be done).

Pete

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#276213 - 08/15/15 04:20 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
On one level, not having been in the region, how a kid that young could have wandered far enough that searchers couldn't find him."

It isn't that hard. One of my most baffling searches was for a two year old last seen within a quarter mile of his home. The intensive phase of the search lasted for more than a week, involving many resources, coming up with no clues or signs whatever.

Years later, his remains were found at least five miles away (I am a bit hazy on the details) while cleaning out an irrigation ditch. Swiftly flowing water transports very rapidly....
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Geezer in Chief

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#276220 - 08/15/15 08:57 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 3161
Loc: Big Sky Country
Very sad. And failed SAR operation has to be demoralizing but I bet it's especially so when a young child is the subject.
_________________________
“I'd rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” —Richard Feynman

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#276255 - 08/18/15 07:03 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: Phaedrus
Very sad. And failed SAR operation has to be demoralizing but I bet it's especially so when a young child is the subject.


Not necessarily. If the emergency is legitimate (and this isn't always the case), there are two broad types of operations with respect to outcomes:

1) ops where your group made a difference,

2) those where you did not (an individual sustains a 300 foot fall for example - just remove the remains)

We always analyzed each operation, big or small, in an attempt to answer the questions - What can we learn from this event? What procedures and protocols should we change in order to improve our operations? If your group responded promptly, deployed effectively, and operated efficiently, what more can you do, and what is there to demoralize you?

Operations with bad outcomes definitely do not lift your spirits, but those where you did make a difference, typically saving a life, provide a very noticeable exhilarating high. This definitely compensates for the flat spots.

Searches for young children are often among the most demanding....
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Geezer in Chief

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#276260 - 08/18/15 08:40 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: hikermor]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Originally Posted By: Phaedrus
Very sad. And failed SAR operation has to be demoralizing but I bet it's especially so when a young child is the subject.
Not necessarily. If the emergency is legitimate (and this isn't always the case), there are two broad types of operations with respect to outcomes:
1) ops where your group made a difference,
2) those where you did not (an individual sustains a 300 foot fall for example - just remove the remains)

We always analyzed each operation, big or small, in an attempt to answer the questions - What can we learn from this event? What procedures and protocols should we change in order to improve our operations? If your group responded promptly, deployed effectively, and operated efficiently, what more can you do, and what is there to demoralize you?

Operations with bad outcomes definitely do not lift your spirits, but those where you did make a difference, typically saving a life, provide a very noticeable exhilarating high. This definitely compensates for the flat spots.

Searches for young children are often among the most demanding....

I would say that unsuccessful searches for children aren't demoralizing, rather they are very depressing. Seeing parents heartbroken over the death of a child is extremely sad and depressing.

The searchers who will probably be doing the most second guessing are those who were involved in the initial response, during the first 6 to 12 hours. According to the press release, the child is thought to have probably died during the first night. Any chance for a successful search with a happy outcome had to be that first night. It is probably inevitable that those in the initial response will be thinking "what if?". Hopefully a CISD ("Critical Incident Stress Debriefing") was set up for those involved.

For those who haven't been involved in SAR, I should explain that lost person searches typically fall into two distinct phases. The "initial response" is the quick search that is launched as soon as the person is reported missing. In this phase, search resources are usually very limited, consisting of a few Park Rangers, Law Enforcement, Forest Service employees, etc. You only have those few searchers who are immediately on hand. Yet this phase is extremely important and has the best chance of a happy ending. The objective is to quickly gather and evaluate any clues, and to search the most likely areas as fast as possible. Hopefully the subject hasn't wandered far, and has not yet succumbed to the elements.

The larger, organized search takes longer to spool up. Volunteer teams must be summoned and travel to the location. Likewise for search dog teams. Helicopters and other assets need to be requested and arrive. An Incident Management Team needs to be set up to organize all the diverse assets, and to plan the most efficient search. All of this is done as quickly as possible, but it still takes time.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#276262 - 08/18/15 09:47 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
AKSAR speak with straight tongue, but the scenario varies with the community and the environmental setting. Most of my SAR experience has been in Tucson, AZ, where we had very wild country impinging on the city limits, but an urban community that (eventually) developed reasonably effective SAR resources.

We soon learned that the quicker the response, the sooner and more successful the end was likely to be. Thirty years ago, we could easily put a minimum of twenty to thirty people in the field (not just sitting at base camp)and from what I have seen on periodic visits to my old stomping ground, the situation is even better today.

Then a typical ops began with a call to the effect that "Johnny was overdue, please help." Often Johnny was located within an hour or two. I came to think of dawn the next morning as the "Golden Hour" when the victim would start moving, increasing the chances of contact. Our efforts were enhanced by the unstinting support of the helicopters available from the highway patrol and the Air Force.

Lacking a quick resolution, the county sheriff got very good at effecting the transition into the larger scale effort with the proverbial "cast of thousands."

I am describing a near ideal situation that grew out of a large urban community with lots of resources,taking many years and a lot of head banging and assorted hassles. I am sure that the vastness of Alaska imposes many different constraints.

Which leads to the question - How well does it go in your area? Needless to say, I am a firm believer in using volunteer SAR resources. If well trained and coordinated, it is a good deal for the victim and for the taxpayer, as well
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#276265 - 08/18/15 11:43 PM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: hikermor]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Hikermor is spot on that if you are going to get lost in the woods, it helps to do it near a big city. In Anchorage (like Tucson) some very wild country comes right to the edge of town. While Anchorage is nowhere near as big as Tucson, between the various SAR groups in the area we can generally get a fair number of people into the field in the near town area fairly quickly (though probably somewhat fewer than in Tucson).

The problem becomes much more acute when the search is located further afield. The time and distance situation then makes the initial search much more dependent on what few resources are available in the immediate area. Note that the search in question for the 5 year old was north of the Grand Canyon in Kaibab National Forest. A quick look at a map shows that Jacob Lake appears to be a long way from any major town. While I don't know any of the details of the search beyond the press release, I strongly suspect they only had very limited resources for the critical first few hours of the search.

One thing that I didn't mention in my previous post is that the vast majority of searches (something like 95%) are solved within the first 24 hours (thankfully). Only a small number go beyond that for several days. However, because big long lasting searches are not that common, there aren't that many people around who know how to efficiently run one.

I should also mention that Hikermor's old stomping ground in Arizona is one of the areas that has led in developing modern search theory and practice. Must be the warm weather down there has made Arizona a hot bed of SAR practice. Here in Alaska we have been fortunate to have several leading Arizona SAR practitioners, including David Lovelock, come up and offer training sessions for our local teams. We got some excellent training from them in how to run a large multiday search operation.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#276266 - 08/19/15 01:26 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Dave Lovelock! Ah,yes...Glad he is still active!

One of the advantages of a volunteer organization is that folks qualified in many disparate fields and activities can contribute and pool their expertise. We had engineers, hard rock miners, and even archaeologists (useful for observing subtle clue son the ground, all with interest in the outdoors, especially technical rock climbing, caving,and river running. One of our number was Dr. John Bounds, a mathematician on the faculty at the University of Arizona, and a pioneer in developing mathematical models to guide rational decisions in SAR management. In the 1970s, under John's guidance, we commenced controlled evaluations of various search techniques.

I can certify that there is an enormous difference between my first SAR experience, a splendid example of how not to conduct a search, and later, far more effective operations.

Reading the reports earlier in this thread, it seems that something like 1000 people from the local communities volunteered in some manner or another. Doubtless only a small number had any kind of experience in SAR, so management must have been a challenge. On the other hand, what an outpouring of support!
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#276270 - 08/19/15 06:16 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
Phaedrus Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 3161
Loc: Big Sky Country
I don't mean to cast aspersions on the SAR folks! A missing five year old has to be a big challenge, and I'm absolutely certain they went all out 110% trying to find him. It was very sad that he could not be located in time but in all honesty it wasn't a total failure. As heartbreaking as the loss of their son must have been, it would perhaps have been worse still if his body was never found. I can't even imagine the weeks turning to months and the months to years, still not knowing if your child was alive or dead.

A sad ending but I know they did all they could. If anything good can be made of a tragic situation like this it will be the result of publicity that leads to discussions like this. Perhaps another set of parents will think on this and prepare their child a little better and have a plan in place.
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“I'd rather have questions that cannot be answered than answers that can't be questioned.” —Richard Feynman

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#276273 - 08/19/15 10:59 AM Re: Body of missing 5 year old child found. [Re: Phaedrus]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
I never thought you were dissing those involved in SAR and I am sorry if that is what I implied. Not all operations have a happy ending and one must accept that and continue on.

In southern Arizona they are still looking for Donald Lee Curtis and Paul Fugate. They will be found eventually, but it will fall in the realm of archaeology rather than SAR.
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