If you have a well-paying job in Seattle, and in your line of work it's hard to find a job anywhere else, will you still try to move away because of the possibility of an earthquake? People in the Northwest are aware a big one is coming, just like people in California know a big one is coming. But it's very hard to pull up your roots, leave your job, your friends, etc., for something that might happen in the next 100 years.
The alternative is to earthquake-proof your region as much as humanly possible, following Japan's example. Why aren't these areas doing that?
Doubtful many people in the PNW are interested in relocating because of the earthquake risk -- it's such a great place to live and its natural amenities (10,000-14,000-foot mountains, coastline, climate) don't exist anywhere else in the United States. And just about every region has threats -- natural (hurricanes/tornadoes/quakes) and/or man-made (terrorist targets like NYC, DC).
The extent of the CSZ threat is a pretty recent discovery and is continually being refined through scientific research. It wasn't until the 1990s that the public and public officials began to be informed about it. Building codes were strengthened, public awareness campaigns about tsunamis and preparedness were initiated.
California started strengthening its building codes after the 1933 Long Beach quake and has made the codes more strict with every successive big quake (Sylmar '71, Loma Prieta '89 and Northrdige '94). Oregonians did not even begin to become aware of the CSZ threat until the mid-90s.
The highest hurdle is to increase the earthquake resilience of the public and private-sector infrastructure. It's an enormous undertaking -- time-consming and extremely expensive -- but they are working on it. Most of Oregon's highway infrastructure dates back to the 1950s-70s and so do most of its buildings.
The state governments involved are constrained by their budget realities. For starters, state and local governments, unlike the feds, actually have to balance their budgets and earthquake preparedness competes with all the normal budgetary demands. State budgets were hammered by the economic crash of 2008-09.
Oregon is the 9th largest state (300 x 400 miles) but has only four million residents -- a subset of whom pay taxes. Absent federal largess, in normal times it is difficult to maintain the roads, bridges (8,000), train tracks (2400 miles), etc. Oregon has 72,000 miles of highways and roads. 300 miles of that is I-5, sitting atop the eastern edge of the CSZ, the north-south artery from Mexico to Canada.
Oregon's Department of Transportation estimates that a 9.0 CSZ quake would destroy (full or partial collapse) 400 bridges and cause major damage to 621 others.
http://www.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/docs/earth_tsunami/2014%20Impacts%20on%20Oregon.pdfOn the private sector side, in Portland alone there are 1200 unreinforced masonry buildings -- deathtraps in a significant quake. Portland is a city of bridges, I-5 bisects the city. They're trying to retrofit these structures, but it is a daunting, multi-billion dollar endeavor. Here's one scenario for Portlanders to ponder ("The First Four Minutes"):
http://www.portlandmercury.com/portland/the-first-four-minutes/Content?oid=5766214I'm from Mt. Hood, Oregon, and my sister lives in Oregon City (suburb of Portland). ETS began influencing her life several years ago as the emerging knowledge of the CSZ threat and experiences with snow-clogged roads on Mt. Hood made her receptive to my urgings to keep some survival gear in her car (including water and protein bars). She's now in the habit of updating her kit for the seasons.
A couple nights ago we discussed the New Yorker article. She's fortunate that her home is newer so is in compliance with the latest building codes. Her house is secured to the foundation, her water heater is strapped to the wall, etc. But she has some catching up to do in terms of water storage and securing tall furniture and other things that may tip or fall off. The
New Yorker article has been inspirational for her to progress further in her preparedness.
Like many Oregonians, the coast is one of her favorite places to vacation -- especially Cannon Beach (also my fave). We discussed whether in the future we'd opt for a hotel at some higher elevation, rather than our usual choices on the beach. And we pondered what we'd carry on future beach walks -- typically, we'd carry the hotel key and maybe a camera.
For sure, on my next beach walk on the Oregon coast I'll be carrying a daypack.
Will be a challenge to not make the pack so heavy I'd need a pack mule....
Twenty years ago, if I were walking on Cannon Beach and there were an earthquake, I'd probably have just stood there, stunned and looking around. Today, for darn sure if I felt even a slight tremor on that beach I'd be running toward the hills. A lot of Oregonians have similarly evolved in their reactions. Going to require constant reminders to ensure they stay so cognizant.
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