Smothsonian article on how an actual maj... to a movie one

No sentient being would take the garbage spewed by Hollywood seriously, especially anything in the "disaster" genre. Of course,a lot of people aren't very sentient.

This website has really good measure to take to prepare for a quake. Follow them. Take a CERT class.Get ready and stay ready.

The point is well taken. Movies love the dramatic stuff, but the reality is far more mundane. Thanks to decades of adequate building codes in California, almost everybody will survive during "The Big One." Not until later will the problems really begin.

Infrastructure damage, including damaged runways, roadways, overpasses, port facilities, railroad tracks, aqueducts, water mains, sewers and the power grid, and the consequences of all that, are likely to be a major cause of loss of life, if not the major cause, along with all sorts of general hardship and misery.

The danger of the uncontrolled, uncontrollable spread of fire cannot be overstated, not in California. Rescue and emergency operations, and casualty evacuation, will be greatly hindered and delayed by the inability to get in, move around and get out as needed. But so will all the more mundane tasks of providing the necessities of life to millions of survivors, including food, shelter, sanitation, basic medicines and medical care, and, especially, drinking water, literally millions of gallons of it, along with untold tons of other supplies.

It will constitute a massive, prolonged, and enormously expensive relief operation. Thinking about the possibilities boggles my mind. Doubtless, when this happens, I will play my tiny, insignificant little part, along with many thousands of other professionals.

All this should bring home the immense value of even minimal, affordable individual and family preparedness. It also justifies doing a bit more than that. Organizing communities for early self-aid is an excellent first line of defense, whether based on neighborhoods, church communities, or other bases. You friends and neighbors are always and inevitably the real "First Responders," since they're already there before the other guys and gals can hope to reach you.

Thinking outside the box, there's a lot that individuals may be able to do. There are, for instance, lots of backyard swimming pools in Southern California. I wonder, if their owners were to invest in gas-powered water pumps and some smaller diameter fire hose, how many homes, neighborhoods and even lives might be spared by the early extinguishment of the many small fires likely to occur?

Here is one article that critiques the flick in terms of the real world possibilities: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/earthquake-reality-check-san-andreas-movie/

Another in the LA Times points out that the most negative effect of this film and the utter devastation it portrays is the engendering of a feeling of utter helplessness. In reality there are lots of things one can do to lessen damage and save lives-anchor bookcases, tie down hot water heaters, remove the mirror from the ceiling, etc. Be sureyou can turn off your gas.

Good building codes save lives, while retrofitting a structure is costly,with no immediate payoff, as is a high tech early warning system now under construction.

Jeff, I would say that if we have a Big One out here, you may be one of thousands assisting in the disaster,and you may not have a starring role, but your contribution will be significant.

Here is another article discussing what the movie got right, as well as what it got wrong: http://earthquakecountry.org/sanandreas/?utm_source=Great+California+ShakeOut&utm_campaign=d2a986c08d-6%2F2%2F2015+CA+ShakeOut+San+Andreas+2B+Email&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a4b2250a03-d2a986c08d-13697357

I must admit that I loved the film San Andreas! Obviously it was silly and there are no lessons to be learned from it. But it's good clean escapist fun.

I haven't seen the movie.

A LOT depends on the size of the quake. Most geologists seem to expect a quake of mag. 7.5-8 for the San Andreas. That expectation is built on the type of fault structure for the San Andreas. HOWEVER, there is new data showing that faults like the San Andreas can liberate a lot more energy. Therefore, a quake with magnitude 8-9 is not impossible. If an event happens with that magnitude, the damage in LA will be pretty enormous. Nothing is built to withstand that kind of earthquake.

My own feelings are that the biggest dangers AFTER a San Andreas quake com from three sources:

1. Human Nature. It can be our best friend and our biggest enemy. Some people will cooperate and pitch in to help. But others have armed themselves, and are prepared to shoot anyone who tries to "take their stuff". That is the reality. I think that human nature will be a real problem after the San Andreas quake.

2. FIRES - probably the biggest risk to LA are large-scale fires after a quake. The city now has many neighborhoods that are high density. It only takes one ignition source, and a whole neighborhood is gone. Water sources are few and far between. Fire departments might not have any water at all, after pipelines are broken. I think that fires will be responsible for most of the damage and the loss of life after the San Andreas quake. In a worst-case scenario, there is a risk of a real "firestorm" in the LA Basin. If something like that happens - the loss of life will be horrendous.

3. Lack of WATER - California is very dry. The problem is getting much worse now because of water restrictions, due to the ongoing drought in the State. This is causing a lot of gardens, trees, shrubs, and vegetation areas to become serious fire risks. On top of that, there are FEW natural water sources in the LA area. But there are MILLIONS of people living there, and very few homes have enough water to last more than 2-3 days. I expect that after 3-4 days (post-quake), the city of LA will go into a critical state because so many people are thirsty, and literally dying from dehydration. That is the time when there will be riots, and people shooting each other. One thing is absolutely certain - it is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for the US Government and the military to get enough water to these people in a short amount of time. I have done the math - it just cannot be done. I'm not saying that people shouldn't try, but the scope of the problem is enormous.

Californians have no "basis for comparison". People have lived through the Sylmar and Northridge quakes. But those were just local city earthquakes. Nobody has experienced a major quake that starts large fires, cuts off all freeways, destroys the major water pipelines and aqueducts, and damages all tall buildings.

It is an UNKNOWN ... as to how people will react to what happens. A lot depends on the size of the quake. And on human nature.

Pete

It isn't just the SA that can shake us up http://articles.latimes.com/2001/may/11/local/me-62277 gives a pretty good summary of a fault very close to me that can make life difficult one of these days....In any event, tectonics happen, and we can be sure we will see major events in the future. Get ready.

I think you are absolutely right about the substantial problem that fires will present, but I am more optimistic about human behavior. We have experienced major earthquakes - Nepal, Chile, Anchorage- all in the 8-9 range, and while I am sure there were some problems, large scale violence doesn't seem to have been present. Enlighten me if I am wrong.

Ditto that. There probably would be some isolated looting but I'd bet that there will be many, many more instances of strangers helping strangers -- and not just in the best zip codes.



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Would you care to share the data that the San Andreas could generate a M 9 quake?
Ditto what hikermor and Dagny said. While there would no doubt be some antisocial behavior, past experience suggests it would be unlikely to be on the scale you suggest. Amanda Ripley's book The Unthinkable is a good primer on actual human behavior in disasters.

I think most experts agree on that. The ShakeOut Scenario lists fires as a major concern.

Would you care to share your math?

I don't think anyone would argue that a M 7-8 quake would be a major disaster, with extensive loss of life. However, I think one should keep assumptions realistic.