Ben, I've debated for some time whether or not to respond to your post. You are obviously quite enthused about your new slope job, and I don't wish to rain on anyone's parade. However, a couple of your statements are either misleading, or flat out wrong. I have worked in the Alaska oil patch for 30 years, in both exploration and development, for several companies, and the following comments are based on that experience.

Much of the current flurry of activity is from projects that were planned, financed, and approved well over a year ago, back when oil was >$100/bbl. Big oil companies like BP, COP, and XOM are giant behemoths. They don't turn on a dime, and it takes a good while for them to change course. For many projects already in progress, it would cost more to shut them down than to finish them.

N Slope drilling rigs ALWAYS RUN 24/7! The rig contracts are written so that the oil company pays whether the rig is making hole, or sitting idle. The goal for many years (seldom achieved) has been to have a full year backlog of rotary drilling well plans, and at least 6 months of coil drilling prospects. That gives the drilling managers flexibility to sequence wells in such a way as to optimize rig moves and minimize issues with sim-ops ("simulataneous operations") on a pad. My employer closely tracks and monitors NPT ("non productive time"). They have about a dozen categories of NPT. After every well we do an analysis of what caused NPT and how to shave a few hours off on the next well. Anyone who puts a rig on standby without a very good reason will soon be looking for a new career.

There is always a backlog. A few years ago the big bosses made it a key point in the annual bonus calculation to reduce well POP time ("put on production"). The backlog has been cut but it is still there.

The break even oil price varies from field to field, and project to project within a field. The companies will almost never publicly state that number for competitive reasons. Although a well that is already in the ground and producing may still make an operating profit at $40/bbl, the field as a whole won't make money at that price on a sustained basis. An educated guess would be that the overall break even oil price for most N Slope fields is probably somewhere around $40-$55 per barrel. No oil company invests money just to break even.

Sure had me fooled: Permian Basin sees five less rigs : "So far, industry and employment officials estimate thousands of oilfield jobs eliminated during the downturn, while it was reported Monday that Trican Well Service recently laid off 137 employees based in Odessa."

Alaska oil is by no sense "cheap stuff". The whole reason for the big Alaska oil tax debate last year was that people were getting worried that we were no longer competitive with N Dakota.

I understand that you are very happy in your new N Slope job, and I sincerely hope it continues to go well for you. In my 30 years working in the Alaska oil patch I have been laid off twice, and very narrowly dodged that bullet a couple of other times. It is no fun, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone. But stay clear of anyone who tells you not to worry at $40 oil. They are likely to fail their next random drug screening.